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ESNT

Essent GroupD
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
If underwriting holds, credit losses remain low, and management returns capital (buybacks/dividends), Essent could re‑rate and approach the bull target (1.5x the anchor).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
Data/analyst target feed discrepancies leading to market confusion
Momentum
56
Value
60
Sentiment
22
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.48 · Bull $12.72 · Bear $5.09Analysis 2026-01-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $74.00
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d -3.3
Value60 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment22 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Data/analyst target feed discrepancies leading to market confusion
  • • Regulatory changes affecting mortgage insurance capital requirements
  • • If mortgage credit worsens or reserves rise unexpectedly, valuation could compress toward the bear target (~0.6x the anchor) absent offsetting capital actions.

Catalyst clock

2026-02-28

Q4 / Full‑Year Earnings Release (estimated)

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
56
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-12.0
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
22
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 56.0 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 22.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.72
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$8.48
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.09
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6B
Beta
0.90
Shares Out
89.88M
P/E (TTM)
9.5
P/S (TTM)
5.01
P/FCF (TTM)
8.86
Rev YoY
+13.9%
EPS YoY
+7.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+65.8%
Net Debt
$408.9M
Current Ratio
3.22
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data