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ESI

Element SolutionsB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.50 and revenue of $995 million exceeded approximately $0.48 and $968 million consensus figures reported by a secondary earnings source. More importantly, management lifted 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to approximately $720 million after 18% Electronics organic sales growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -12.3.
What can break
Electronics demand or capacity execution could slow after a strong Q3, undermining the raised EBITDA outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
Momentum
73
Value
48
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $36.00 · Bull $47.00 · Bear $27.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $47.46
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -14.1
Value48 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -12.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -12.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Electronics demand or capacity execution could slow after a strong Q3, undermining the raised EBITDA outlook. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
  • • Guidance assumes stable exchange rates and metal prices and includes contributions from recent acquisitions. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-21]
  • • The deterministic delta prior is negative despite the strong release.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-23

Q3 beat and higher 2026 EBITDA outlook face post-earnings scrutiny

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
73
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.1
Δ21d
+11.8
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.3
Δ21d
-10.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 73.4 / Value 48.1 / Sentiment 61.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8.09B
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
243.69M
P/E (TTM)
26.9
P/S (TTM)
2.57
P/FCF (TTM)
33.38
Rev YoY
+56.4%
EPS YoY
+61.9%
Gross Margin
+38.4%
Op Margin
+14.8%
Net Debt
$1.09B
Current Ratio
2.91
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data