B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$74.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ES
Eversource EnergyDNYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive read-through is that core utility operations were solid: Q1 recurring EPS and revenue beat checked consensus sources, segment earnings improved on rate increases and continued investment, and management still targets 5%-7% long-term EPS growth with upside leverage if the replacement ROE filing is received better than feared [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
What can break
Aquarion sale timing is still uncertain despite PURA approval because appeals, regulatory processes, and closing adjustments remain outstanding; the company said held-for-sale criteria were not met as of March 31, 2026 [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
53
Value
56
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $68.00 · Bull $74.60 · Bear $61.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $73.64
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d -8.1
Value56 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment49 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Aquarion sale timing is still uncertain despite PURA approval because appeals, regulatory processes, and closing adjustments remain outstanding; the company said held-for-sale criteria were not met as of March 31, 2026 [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • Higher interest expense and the capital-intensive funding profile can keep pressure on equity valuation even if regulated operations remain fundamentally stable [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • The bearish read-through is that the stock is still trapped by the March FERC ROE cut, the related $43.9 million after-tax Q1 charge, lower 2026 guidance, Aquarion-closing uncertainty, and residual offshore-wind adjustment exposure; checked T+3 sources did not yet show a clear positive post-print analyst revision cycle.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-09
Q1 beat was overshadowed by the already-announced 2026 guide reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.1
Δ21d
+17.4
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+3.3
Sentiment
49
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+3.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 52.9 / Value 56.0 / Sentiment 49.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$27.09B
Beta
0.78
Shares Out
376.68M
P/E (TTM)
18.4
P/S (TTM)
1.91
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-32.01
Rev YoY
+2.3%
EPS YoY
-85.1%
Gross Margin
+30.4%
Op Margin
+22.3%
Net Debt
$30.11B
Current Ratio
0.80
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data