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ERO

Ero CopperC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q1 showed solid copper operating performance, net debt fell to about 1.0x leverage, and management maintained full-year guidance, which supports the case that 2026 can improve as H2 weighting and Xavantina normalization play out [#IR-2026-05-04].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
11 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-25.
What can break
2026 guidance is maintained, but delivery is explicitly back-half weighted, increasing execution risk if grades, throughput or recoveries disappoint.
Momentum
92
Value
63
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
11 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $31.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-06-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-09-24 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-25

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-25. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $37.90
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d +1.4
Value63 · Δ7d -1.7
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -11.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 11 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-25.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -11.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 guidance is maintained, but delivery is explicitly back-half weighted, increasing execution risk if grades, throughput or recoveries disappoint.
  • • Balance-sheet improvement is real, but the company still carried roughly $490.7 million of net debt at Q1 end, limiting room for major missteps if operating momentum fades [#IR-2026-05-04].
  • • The same Q1 release also showed lower grades at Caraíba, moderated grades at Tucumã, very high Xavantina AISC during upgrade work, and a growth story still leaning on a preliminary Furnas PEA, so the thesis remains sensitive to execution and project de-risking [#IR-2026-05-04] [#IR-2026-03-30].

Catalyst clock

2026-07-31

Mid-2026 Furnas project update could reset growth expectations

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
92
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
-2.7
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
45
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.7
Δ21d
-6.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 91.7 / Value 63.0 / Sentiment 45.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-09-24
Market Cap
$3.87B
Beta
1.63
Shares Out
104.3M
P/E (TTM)
22.9
P/S (TTM)
5.36
P/FCF (TTM)
74.00
Rev YoY
+73.9%
EPS YoY
+26.1%
Gross Margin
+42.5%
Op Margin
+35.8%
Net Debt
$526.91M
Current Ratio
1.37
As of 2026-09-25 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data