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ERO

Ero CopperC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
$30.67-$0.65 (-2.08%)
At close · 2026-11-10
View Chart
Current thesis
Q1 showed solid copper operating performance, net debt fell to about 1.0x leverage, and management maintained full-year guidance, which supports the case that 2026 can improve as H2 weighting and Xavantina normalization play out [#IR-2026-05-04].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-11-10.
What can break
2026 guidance is maintained, but delivery is explicitly back-half weighted, increasing execution risk if grades, throughput or recoveries disappoint.
Momentum
31
Value
65
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $31.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-06-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-10 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $39.78
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d +1.9
Value65 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-11-10.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 guidance is maintained, but delivery is explicitly back-half weighted, increasing execution risk if grades, throughput or recoveries disappoint.
  • • Balance-sheet improvement is real, but the company still carried roughly $490.7 million of net debt at Q1 end, limiting room for major missteps if operating momentum fades [#IR-2026-05-04].
  • • The same Q1 release also showed lower grades at Caraíba, moderated grades at Tucumã, very high Xavantina AISC during upgrade work, and a growth story still leaning on a preliminary Furnas PEA, so the thesis remains sensitive to execution and project de-risking [#IR-2026-05-04] [#IR-2026-03-30].

Catalyst clock

2026-07-31

Mid-2026 Furnas project update could reset growth expectations

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
31
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
-58.2
Value
65
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
55
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
+12.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 31.3 / Value 65.2 / Sentiment 54.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-10
Market Cap
$3.19B
Beta
1.63
Shares Out
104.3M
P/E (TTM)
22.9
P/S (TTM)
5.36
P/FCF (TTM)
74.00
Rev YoY
+73.9%
EPS YoY
+26.1%
Gross Margin
+42.5%
Op Margin
+35.8%
Net Debt
$526.91M
Current Ratio
1.37
As of 2026-11-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data