B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ERAS
ErascaFNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence is not purely negative: the April 27 8-K reported dose-dependent PK, broad ctDNA reductions, strong early unconfirmed response rates in NSCLC and PDAC, selected 24 mg and 32 mg as go-forward monotherapy RDEs, and showed early combinability signals, while the 10-K said cash plus January 2026 financing proceeds less the Joyo payment should fund operations into the second half of 2028 [#8-K-2026-04-27] [#10-K-2026-03-12].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
A treatment-related pneumonitis event progressed to Grade 5 after supportive-care withdrawal, creating a real safety overhang around ERAS-0015 [#8-K-2026-04-27].
Momentum
49
Value
41
Sentiment
8
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $13.00 · Bear $5.50Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $23.91
Why
Momentum49 · Δ7d -13.7
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment8 · Δ7d +1.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A treatment-related pneumonitis event progressed to Grade 5 after supportive-care withdrawal, creating a real safety overhang around ERAS-0015 [#8-K-2026-04-27].
- • Clinical timing risk remains meaningful because AURORAS-1 and BOREALIS-1 readouts could be delayed or fail to confirm the current early signal [#8-K-2026-04-27].
- • The same 8-K disclosed a pneumonitis case that progressed to Grade 5 and repeatedly warned that the data are preliminary, partly pooled across separate trials, include licensor-generated data not independently verified by Erasca, and rely on cross-trial comparisons rather than head-to-head evidence; that keeps the thesis speculative despite the efficacy signals [#8-K-2026-04-27].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Post-data safety digestion can keep ERAS-0015 under pressure
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
49
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-13.7
Δ21d
-36.2
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
8
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.0
Δ21d
+6.2
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 49.2 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 8.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.39B
Beta
1.15
Shares Out
349.76M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-41.6
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-55.29
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+18.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$228.94M
Current Ratio
8.29
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data