B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$786.53
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
EME
EMCOR GroupDNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
EMCOR sustains backlog growth, successfully integrates recent acquisitions, and converts higher-margin contracts, producing earnings beats and a material re-rating toward the bull target within the 3-month horizon [#10Q-2025-09-30].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Persistent cost inflation, project execution issues or meaningful demand softness compress margins and revenue growth, pushing shares toward the bear target as investors de-rate the services multiple [#10Q-2025-09-30].
Momentum
46
Value
56
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $660.68 · Bull $786.53 · Bear $503.38Analysis 2025-12-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-12-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $1,033.29
Why
Momentum46 · Δ7d -14.8
Value56 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment47 · Δ7d -0.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Persistent cost inflation, project execution issues or meaningful demand softness compress margins and revenue growth, pushing shares toward the bear target as investors de-rate the services multiple [#10Q-2025-09-30].
- • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.
Catalyst clock
No dated catalyst is available.
Margin pressure from labor/subcontract costs
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
46
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.8
Δ21d
-7.8
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.7
Sentiment
47
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+8.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 45.9 / Value 55.5 / Sentiment 47.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-12-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$660.68
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$503.38
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$38.05B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
44.11M
P/E (TTM)
26.3
P/S (TTM)
1.80
P/FCF (TTM)
26.52
Rev YoY
+19.8%
EPS YoY
+34.9%
Gross Margin
+19.4%
Op Margin
+9.6%
Net Debt
-$637.41M
Current Ratio
1.28
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data