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EME

EMCOR GroupB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
EMCOR sustains backlog growth, successfully integrates recent acquisitions, and converts higher-margin contracts, producing earnings beats and a material re-rating toward the bull target within the 3-month horizon [#10Q-2025-09-30].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Persistent cost inflation, project execution issues or meaningful demand softness compress margins and revenue growth, pushing shares toward the bear target as investors de-rate the services multiple [#10Q-2025-09-30].
Momentum
53
Value
58
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $660.68 · Bull $786.53 · Bear $503.38Analysis 2025-12-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-12-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $1,020.43
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d -29.3
Value58 · Δ7d +2.3
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +11.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Persistent cost inflation, project execution issues or meaningful demand softness compress margins and revenue growth, pushing shares toward the bear target as investors de-rate the services multiple [#10Q-2025-09-30].
  • • Mixed signals. Wait for cleaner trend confirmation.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Margin pressure from labor/subcontract costs

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
53
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-29.3
Δ21d
-29.9
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
+2.6
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.8
Δ21d
+14.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 52.5 / Value 58.4 / Sentiment 56.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-12-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$786.53
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$660.68
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$503.38
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-12-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$28.57B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
44.11M
P/E (TTM)
26.3
P/S (TTM)
1.80
P/FCF (TTM)
26.52
Rev YoY
+19.8%
EPS YoY
+34.9%
Gross Margin
+19.4%
Op Margin
+9.6%
Net Debt
-$637.41M
Current Ratio
1.28
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data