B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$470.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ELV
Elevance HealthCNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 beat, higher FY2026 adjusted EPS and cash-flow guidance, and management's 2027 growth objective support a recovery case if medical-cost trends normalize and Carelon investments improve execution [#SEC-8K-2026-07-15].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
What can break
Consolidated operating margin declined to 3.5% from 4.9% year over year in Q2 [#SEC-8K-2026-07-15].
Momentum
53
Value
66
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $410.00 · Bull $470.00 · Bear $300.00Analysis 2026-07-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $446.52
Why
Momentum53 · Δ7d +8.7
Value66 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -5.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Consolidated operating margin declined to 3.5% from 4.9% year over year in Q2 [#SEC-8K-2026-07-15].
- • Government medical-cost trend pressure; the Q2 benefit expense ratio increased 80 basis points year over year [#SEC-8K-2026-07-15].
- • The market reaction indicates that investors are prioritizing Medicaid losses and possible footprint contraction over the earnings beat.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Post-earnings digestion of a strong print versus Medicaid concerns
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
53
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.7
Δ21d
+11.7
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.6
Δ21d
-5.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 53.3 / Value 65.7 / Sentiment 57.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$410.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$300.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$84.63B
Beta
0.50
Shares Out
216.87M
P/E (TTM)
14.9
P/S (TTM)
0.41
P/FCF (TTM)
36.79
Rev YoY
+1.4%
EPS YoY
-13.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+3.6%
Net Debt
$23.22B
Current Ratio
1.52
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data