B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de EnergiaBNYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Copel IR reports 2Q26 recurring EBITDA of BRL 1,612.6 million and recurring net profit of BRL 645.1 million. Continued operating strength alongside the larger distribution remuneration base could support upside, subject to confirmation in subsequent results.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
What can break
BRL/USD movements can materially affect the USD-denominated ADR.
Momentum
77
Value
57
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.30 · Bull $13.00 · Bear $9.30Analysis 2026-10-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-29
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.71
Why
Momentum77 · Δ7d -18.1
Value57 · Δ7d +4.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • BRL/USD movements can materially affect the USD-denominated ADR.
- • Distribution returns depend on execution, capital spending and regulatory treatment despite the completed tariff review.
- • The favorable 2Q26 figures and completed tariff review may already be reflected in the ADR.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-12
3Q26 results and conference
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
77
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.1
Δ21d
-15.3
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+4.2
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 76.9 / Value 56.9 / Sentiment 59.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$8B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
742.53M
P/E (TTM)
16.6
P/S (TTM)
1.74
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-19.17
Rev YoY
+24.6%
EPS YoY
+94.2%
Gross Margin
+23.1%
Op Margin
+19.3%
Net Debt
$3.13B
Current Ratio
1.30
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data