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EC

EcopetrolC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes sustained commodity strength, successful asset sales, and stronger-than-expected operational execution leading to re-rating toward higher global peer multiples; catalysts include improved cash generation and higher dividend visibility.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Adverse Colombian fiscal, royalty, or regulatory changes that constrain payouts
Momentum
73
Value
62
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $11.04 · Bull $15.06 · Bear $8.79Analysis 2026-01-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $15.00
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d +5.1
Value62 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment36 · Δ7d +1.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adverse Colombian fiscal, royalty, or regulatory changes that constrain payouts
  • • COP depreciation and political risk that impair cash repatriation
  • • Bear case assumes prolonged weak oil prices, slower production recovery, or adverse country/fiscal policy developments in Colombia that depress margins and investor sentiment, keeping the stock below the current anchor.

Catalyst clock

2026-03-31

Full-year 2025 results & dividend decision (assumed)

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
73
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.1
Δ21d
+7.1
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
36
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-8.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 73.3 / Value 62.3 / Sentiment 35.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.06
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$11.04
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$8.79
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$36.53B
Beta
0.78
Shares Out
2.06B
P/E (TTM)
7.3
P/S (TTM)
0.65
P/FCF (TTM)
40.21
Rev YoY
+37.7%
EPS YoY
+289.6%
Gross Margin
+31.0%
Op Margin
+22.5%
Net Debt
$25.59B
Current Ratio
1.51
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data