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DX

Dynex CapitalA
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Management sees improved forward returns after the MBS repricing. Q3 EAD rose to $0.38 per share and the company reported $1.3 billion of cash and unpledged securities, which could support deployment if spreads stabilize.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.0.
What can break
Continued common-equity issuance could dilute per-share gains if deployment does not earn adequate returns. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19]
Momentum
29
Value
73
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.60 · Bull $12.60 · Bear $9.10Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.60
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d -1.7
Value73 · Δ7d +10.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -24.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Continued common-equity issuance could dilute per-share gains if deployment does not earn adequate returns. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19]
  • • Further Agency MBS spread widening could erode book value despite interest-rate hedges. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-19]
  • • The 15.4% quarter-on-quarter book-value decline, higher leverage and EAD below the declared dividend outweigh the improved carry until sustained per-share recovery is visible.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-19

Q3 book-value loss tests the post-earnings rebound

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
29
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
-7.6
Value
73
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.0
Δ21d
+9.9
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-24.0
Δ21d
-32.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 29.2 / Value 73.3 / Sentiment 53.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$10.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$9.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.71B
Beta
0.97
Shares Out
248.17M
P/E (TTM)
9.5
P/S (TTM)
4.64
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-15.29
Rev YoY
+170.9%
EPS YoY
-653.6%
Gross Margin
+100.0%
Op Margin
+120.1%
Net Debt
$13.37B
Current Ratio
0.06
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data