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DWSN

Dawson GeophysicalD
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary-source evidence improved with Q4 2025 fee revenue up 67% year over year, adjusted EBITDA up 248% in the quarter, operating cash flow of $14.0 million for 2025, and management explicitly expecting utilization and revenue to rise in Q1 2026 [#8-K-2026-03-31]. For a company with a roughly $55 million market cap, another confirmed profitable quarter could have an outsized equity impact.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
A single customer represented about 51% of 2025 revenue, creating acute concentration risk [#10-K-2026-03-31].
Momentum
94
Value
47
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.55 · Bull $3.35 · Bear $1.75Analysis 2026-04-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d -
Value47 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A single customer represented about 51% of 2025 revenue, creating acute concentration risk [#10-K-2026-03-31].
  • • Balance-sheet flexibility is improved but still limited for a small-cap, cyclical services business despite year-end cash of $4.9 million and an undrawn revolver [#8-K-2026-03-31].
  • • The same primary-source set still supports a cautious stance because the business is highly customer-concentrated, contract timing is uncertain, and customers can delay or cancel on short notice [#10-K-2026-03-31].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-15

Q1 2026 utilization follow-through after stronger Q4 exit

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
94
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.6
Sentiment
48
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 93.8 / Value 47.1 / Sentiment 47.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$3.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$2.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$1.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$88.82M
Beta
-0.03
Shares Out
31.06M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-45.7
P/S (TTM)
0.85
P/FCF (TTM)
1332.78
Rev YoY
+81.8%
EPS YoY
+46.2%
Gross Margin
+15.4%
Op Margin
+7.4%
Net Debt
$15.39M
Current Ratio
0.87
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data