B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$132.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DOCN
DigitalOceanCNYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 29% to $281 million; AI Customer ARR reached $234 million and RPO $894 million. Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $1.170–1.180 billion.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.0.
What can break
Agent Droplets and Managed Agents remain public-preview services; production performance and paid adoption are unproven [#PR-2026-10-01].
Momentum
14
Value
51
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $108.00 · Bull $132.00 · Bear $70.00Analysis 2026-10-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $177.00
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d -40.6
Value51 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +7.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Agent Droplets and Managed Agents remain public-preview services; production performance and paid adoption are unproven [#PR-2026-10-01].
- • Q2 adjusted free-cash-flow margin declined to 22% from 26% year over year despite revenue growth [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
- • RPO is not a revenue forecast: consumption timing and longer commitments can lift it without equivalent near-term sales.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
Q3 revenue and margin test against stated outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-40.6
Δ21d
-65.6
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+2.1
Sentiment
68
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
+24.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 13.7 / Value 50.7 / Sentiment 68.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$108.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.96B
Beta
1.76
Shares Out
117.58M
P/E (TTM)
20.7
P/S (TTM)
5.36
P/FCF (TTM)
33.65
Rev YoY
+28.6%
EPS YoY
-24.5%
Gross Margin
+57.2%
Op Margin
+14.8%
Net Debt
$1.45B
Current Ratio
1.31
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data