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DNUT

Krispy KremeC
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Higher delivery-door productivity, sustained margin gains and lower capital intensity could improve cash conversion and reduce leverage. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 43.2% year over year despite lower reported revenue.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · BMO.
What can break
First-half free cash flow of negative $6.1 million leaves a material second-half cash-conversion requirement to achieve guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
26
Value
53
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.00 · Bull $4.20 · Bear $1.70Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-05 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.30
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d -2.7
Value53 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • First-half free cash flow of negative $6.1 million leaves a material second-half cash-conversion requirement to achieve guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • International adjusted EBITDA declined, including weakness in the U.K. and Australia. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Q2 net revenue fell 12.8%, organic revenue fell 0.3%, and international adjusted EBITDA declined.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05 · BMO

2026 cash-flow and leverage targets

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
26
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
+7.8
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
-6.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 26.0 / Value 52.9 / Sentiment 54.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$555.2M
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
173.5M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.1
P/S (TTM)
0.47
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
14.65
Rev YoY
-12.8%
EPS YoY
-95.4%
Gross Margin
+16.3%
Op Margin
-0.1%
Net Debt
$1.38B
Current Ratio
0.36
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data