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DNUT

Krispy KremeC
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Higher delivery-door productivity, sustained margin gains and lower capital intensity could improve cash conversion and reduce leverage. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 43.2% year over year despite lower reported revenue.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.0.
What can break
First-half free cash flow of negative $6.1 million leaves a material second-half cash-conversion requirement to achieve guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
27
Value
53
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.00 · Bull $4.20 · Bear $1.70Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.30
Why
Momentum27 · Δ7d -2.7
Value53 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +6.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • First-half free cash flow of negative $6.1 million leaves a material second-half cash-conversion requirement to achieve guidance. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • International adjusted EBITDA declined, including weakness in the U.K. and Australia. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Q2 net revenue fell 12.8%, organic revenue fell 0.3%, and international adjusted EBITDA declined.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

2026 cash-flow and leverage targets

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
27
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-8.9
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+6.0
Δ21d
-6.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 26.8 / Value 53.3 / Sentiment 58.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$504.89M
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
173.5M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.0
P/S (TTM)
0.47
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
13.32
Rev YoY
-12.8%
EPS YoY
-95.4%
Gross Margin
+16.3%
Op Margin
-0.1%
Net Debt
$1.38B
Current Ratio
0.36
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data