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DNUT

Krispy KremeB
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed meaningful operating improvement: higher Adjusted EBITDA, wider margins, better year-to-date operating cash flow, expanding delivery reach, and maintained 2026 guidance. If these gains persist while refranchising reduces capital intensity, DNUT could rerate from distressed-turnaround levels.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.2.
What can break
First-half free cash flow remains negative, so deleveraging and cash-generation execution are not yet fully proven.
Momentum
58
Value
54
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.60 · Bull $4.50 · Bear $2.40Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.38
Why
Momentum58 · Δ7d +14.6
Value54 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d +13.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +13.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • First-half free cash flow remains negative, so deleveraging and cash-generation execution are not yet fully proven.
  • • Low coverage, unavailable analyst-count data, and loose peers reduce valuation precision.
  • • Revenue and organic revenue remain negative, points of access declined materially, and first-half free cash flow was still negative at $6.1 million.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 results validate parts of the turnaround while revenue remains under pressure

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
58
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.6
Δ21d
+43.0
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+6.6
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.2
Δ21d
+10.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 57.9 / Value 53.7 / Sentiment 74.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$555.2M
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
173.5M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.1
P/S (TTM)
0.47
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
14.65
Rev YoY
-12.8%
EPS YoY
-95.4%
Gross Margin
+16.3%
Op Margin
-0.1%
Net Debt
$1.38B
Current Ratio
0.36
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data