RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

DLTR

Dollar TreeA
Nasdaq / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The Q2 print confirmed positive traffic, strong ticket growth, better assortment execution, and raised full-year EPS guidance. Multi-price expansion, store improvements, buybacks, and continued value-seeking demand could sustain the recovery.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.0.
What can break
Consumables are expected to lead second-half sales growth, a mix that management indicated could keep margins somewhat lower.
Momentum
85
Value
55
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $136.50 · Bull $150.00 · Bear $115.00Analysis 2026-09-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $137.33
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d +3.7
Value55 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +8.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Consumables are expected to lead second-half sales growth, a mix that management indicated could keep margins somewhat lower.
  • • Q2 EPS included a $1.31 tariff-refund benefit, and FY2026 guidance includes an approximate $0.60 benefit, limiting the quality of headline earnings growth.
  • • The initial market reaction was negative despite the earnings beat, with Reuters-linked coverage reporting roughly a 3% premarket decline as investors focused on the Q3 outlook and unchanged sales framework.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-27

Q2 FY2026 beat with higher EPS outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+9.2
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-2.4
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
+5.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 85.4 / Value 54.5 / Sentiment 76.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$136.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$24.89B
Beta
0.74
Shares Out
192.18M
P/E (TTM)
24.9
P/S (TTM)
1.83
P/FCF (TTM)
21.10
Rev YoY
+7.2%
EPS YoY
+9.6%
Gross Margin
+36.7%
Op Margin
+8.4%
Net Debt
$6.34B
Current Ratio
1.16
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data