DLTR
Dollar TreeANasdaq / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
Current thesis
Primary sources support a constructive setup: Q1 net sales rose 7.2%, comp sales rose 3.5%, adjusted EPS increased 38%, operating margin expanded, and management raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $6.70-$7.10 [#SEC-8K-2026-05-28]. Secondary coverage then turned more favorable, with Raymond James upgrading to Outperform with a $140 target and Goldman Sachs upgrading to Neutral with a $125 target, both highlighting conservative guidance, balance-sheet capacity, and improving value perception.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
Higher tariff costs were cited as a partial offset to gross-margin benefits in the FY2025/Q4 release, so cost inflation and sourcing pressure remain watch items even with lower freight and pricing benefits [#SEC-8K-2026-03-16].
Momentum
84
Value
60
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $128.00 · Bull $140.00 · Bear $112.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-18
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-18
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $127.92
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d +0.6
Value60 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -3.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
84
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+8.4
Value
60
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
49
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-5.1
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 84.1 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 48.6
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-17
Market Cap
$24.2B
Beta
0.74
Shares Out
192.18M
P/E (TTM)
24.9
P/S (TTM)
1.83
P/FCF (TTM)
21.10
Rev YoY
+7.2%
EPS YoY
+9.6%
Gross Margin
+36.7%
Op Margin
+10.5%
Net Debt
$6.34B
Current Ratio
1.16
As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology