B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DLTR
Dollar TreeBNasdaq / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 sales grew 7.0%, comparable sales rose 3.7%, traffic turned positive at 0.4%, and management raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. Continued multi-price rollout, assortment improvement and cash generation could sustain the recovery beyond temporary tariff benefits [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Comparable-sales growth relied primarily on a 3.3% increase in average ticket versus only 0.4% traffic growth, leaving the recovery sensitive to customer visits and mix [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27].
Momentum
56
Value
57
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $128.00 · Bull $145.00 · Bear $90.00Analysis 2026-09-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $136.35
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d +30.7
Value57 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +0.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Comparable-sales growth relied primarily on a 3.3% increase in average ticket versus only 0.4% traffic growth, leaving the recovery sensitive to customer visits and mix [#SEC-8K-2026-08-27].
- • Open-market sales by a director and the chief information officer after Q2 are monitoring signals, not evidence of deteriorating operations [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-04] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-09-01].
- • Q2 margin expansion and EPS included unusually large tariff-refund benefits, while underlying traffic growth was only 0.4%.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
Q3 reinvestment and earnings normalization
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
56
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+30.7
Δ21d
+31.3
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.8
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-23.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 56.1 / Value 56.8 / Sentiment 55.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$128.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$90.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$23.51B
Beta
0.74
Shares Out
187.63M
P/E (TTM)
24.9
P/S (TTM)
1.83
P/FCF (TTM)
21.10
Rev YoY
+7.2%
EPS YoY
+9.6%
Gross Margin
+36.7%
Op Margin
+8.4%
Net Debt
$6.34B
Current Ratio
1.16
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data