B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DLO
DLocalCNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 reinforced the core volume thesis: TPV rose 73% YoY, revenue rose 55%, gross profit hit a record, and guidance was unchanged despite the noisy tax adjustment [#6K-2026-05-14]. If investors look through the one-off tax item and temporary working-capital drag, DLocal can still argue that emerging-market local-processing adoption remains strong.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
What can break
Execution risk around the promised 2H26 operating leverage improvement after elevated 2025 investment carry-over [#6K-2026-05-14].
Momentum
68
Value
54
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-05-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-14 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-14
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-14
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-14. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.50
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d +10.4
Value54 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +2.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk around the promised 2H26 operating leverage improvement after elevated 2025 investment carry-over [#6K-2026-05-14].
- • Geographic mix risk, including Brazil normalization and reliance on strong growth from Argentina, Africa, and Asia to offset mix headwinds [#6K-2026-05-14].
- • The bear case is that the market may treat Q1 as evidence that scaling volume is not translating cleanly into earnings quality: gross profit over TPV fell to 0.84% from 1.05% a year ago, gross profit margin fell to 35% from 39%, and normalized opex still stepped up sequentially.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-14
Q1 print kept growth intact but earnings quality stayed mixed
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.4
Δ21d
0.0
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+2.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 68.0 / Value 53.7 / Sentiment 53.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.1B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
294.93M
P/E (TTM)
26.0
P/S (TTM)
4.53
P/FCF (TTM)
30.55
Rev YoY
+55.8%
EPS YoY
+26.5%
Gross Margin
+33.9%
Op Margin
+17.7%
Net Debt
-$733.78M
Current Ratio
1.25
As of 2026-09-14 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data