B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DLHC
DLHANasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The NHLBI renewal protects an established program, while new funded task orders and completed cost actions could support a higher-margin fiscal 2027. This is conditional on awards converting to revenue rather than remaining pipeline opportunities.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Backlog fell 20.6% from fiscal 2025 year-end to June 30, 2026. [#IR-2026-07-29] DLH earnings release
Momentum
19
Value
62
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.10 · Bull $6.00 · Bear $2.10Analysis 2026-09-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.00
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d -
Value62 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment73 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Backlog fell 20.6% from fiscal 2025 year-end to June 30, 2026. [#IR-2026-07-29] DLH earnings release
- • Debt of $128.7 million is substantial relative to the packet's $54.6 million equity value; delayed operating improvement could constrain deleveraging.
- • Q3 revenue fell sharply, backlog declined to $408.5 million from $514.3 million at fiscal 2025 year-end, and adjusted EBITDA margin remained below the longer-term 9%–10% goal cited in earnings coverage.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-15
Fiscal year-end test of the revenue reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+1.2
Sentiment
73
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 18.7 / Value 62.0 / Sentiment 72.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$52.76M
Beta
1.60
Shares Out
14.49M
P/E (TTM)
60.5
P/S (TTM)
0.24
P/FCF (TTM)
3.56
Rev YoY
-46.9%
EPS YoY
-5891.5%
Gross Margin
+11.3%
Op Margin
-0.1%
Net Debt
$144.85M
Current Ratio
0.67
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data