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DIS

Walt DisneyA
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 showed concrete operating improvement: adjusted EPS rose 28%, total segment operating income rose 21%, Experiences operating income rose 20%, and Entertainment operating income rose 64%. Management cited Experiences guest growth, Toy Story 5 and ESPN gains, while reaffirming FY2026/FY2027 growth targets and increasing the buyback target.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
What can break
Domestic park attendance and consumer spending could weaken despite management's current positive demand commentary.
Momentum
67
Value
58
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $118.00 · Bull $133.00 · Bear $88.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $127.62
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d +0.1
Value58 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d -0.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-11.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Domestic park attendance and consumer spending could weaken despite management's current positive demand commentary.
  • • Nine-month free cash flow declined 24% year over year, warranting monitoring of content, Experiences and capital-allocation spending.
  • • The print was mixed rather than a clean top-line beat: adjusted EPS exceeded the packet's pre-print estimate, but revenue was slightly below estimate.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q3 FY2026 adjusted-EPS beat with reaffirmed outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
67
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+14.8
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.6
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
+1.4
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 67.2 / Value 57.7 / Sentiment 74.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$133.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$178.71B
Beta
1.43
Shares Out
1.73B
P/E (TTM)
16.6
P/S (TTM)
2.16
P/FCF (TTM)
22.19
Rev YoY
+7.5%
EPS YoY
-48.1%
Gross Margin
+32.2%
Op Margin
+15.4%
Net Debt
$39.73B
Current Ratio
0.65
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data