B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
DECK
Deckers OutdoorBNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
HOKA and UGG sustain growth while international and direct-to-consumer sales support margins. Q1 inventory was below the year-earlier level, and Deckers reported no outstanding borrowings.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
What can break
FY2027 guidance remains exposed to discretionary demand, tariffs, currency and supply-chain disruption, as the company cautioned. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
Momentum
50
Value
67
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $77.00 · Bull $100.00 · Bear $59.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $114.45
Why
Momentum50 · Δ7d +10.3
Value67 · Δ7d +1.1
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +6.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • FY2027 guidance remains exposed to discretionary demand, tariffs, currency and supply-chain disruption, as the company cautioned. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
- • Q1 SG&A growth outpaced revenue growth, reducing operating income despite a higher gross margin. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-23]
- • Q1 SG&A rose faster than sales and operating income declined.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-25
UGG fall campaign sell-through
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
50
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+10.3
Δ21d
+29.6
Value
67
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
-9.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 50.2 / Value 67.0 / Sentiment 50.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$77.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$59.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$11.04B
Beta
1.15
Shares Out
136.18M
P/E (TTM)
16.0
P/S (TTM)
3.00
P/FCF (TTM)
16.08
Rev YoY
+5.8%
EPS YoY
+0.8%
Gross Margin
+56.3%
Op Margin
+22.4%
Net Debt
-$1.53B
Current Ratio
2.75
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data