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CZNC

Citizens NorthernD
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that Susquehanna meaningfully enlarged loans and deposits, fourth-quarter margin expanded sharply, and adjusted earnings suggest underlying earnings power is better than headline GAAP results implied. If integration costs fade and reserve pressure stabilizes, even modest confidence improvement could support upside from a subdued valuation base.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.
What can break
Credit costs on acquired and legacy loans could stay elevated, especially if qualitative reserve factors do not ease.
Momentum
76
Value
46
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.50 · Bull $26.50 · Bear $20.50Analysis 2026-04-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.00
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d +9.7
Value46 · Δ7d -0.7
Sentiment47 · Δ7d -7.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit costs on acquired and legacy loans could stay elevated, especially if qualitative reserve factors do not ease.
  • • Low coverage and limited external validation reduce confidence in any near-term rerating thesis.
  • • The bear case is that the strongest recent profitability metrics were helped by purchase-accounting accretion and a still-noisy merger quarter, while ACL and charge-off trends already moved higher.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Next quarterly print needs to show merger benefits are surviving purchase-accounting lift

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+9.7
Δ21d
-3.7
Value
46
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
47
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.1
Δ21d
-13.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 76.5 / Value 46.5 / Sentiment 47.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$493.03M
Beta
0.54
Shares Out
17.93M
P/E (TTM)
11.5
P/S (TTM)
3.16
P/FCF (TTM)
22.44
Rev YoY
+26.5%
EPS YoY
+100.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+20.4%
Net Debt
$148.35M
Current Ratio
0.16
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data