B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CXW
CoreCivicDNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 confirmed real operating leverage from facility activations: revenue rose to $614.7 million, Adjusted EBITDA reached $110.1 million, ICE revenue nearly doubled year over year, and full-year EBITDA guidance moved up materially. If Midwest, California City, and Diamondback continue ramping and CSP contributes as expected, 2026 earnings power can still move higher from here [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
What can break
California City faces litigation risk that could affect operations even though CoreCivic is not currently a party to the lawsuit [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
44
Value
54
Sentiment
29
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $17.00Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $42.50
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d -29.4
Value54 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment29 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • California City faces litigation risk that could affect operations even though CoreCivic is not currently a party to the lawsuit [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • Federal detention demand could remain uneven if DHS enforcement redeployments or strategy changes last longer than management expects.
- • The bear case is that the guidance raise still came with a warning that ICE populations recently declined due to DHS redeployments and strategy changes, while start-up costs remain elevated at newly activated sites and litigation still hangs over California City.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 occupancy ramp must validate the post-Q1 guidance increase
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
44
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-29.4
Δ21d
-49.7
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+2.6
Sentiment
29
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
+4.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 43.6 / Value 54.3 / Sentiment 29.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.97B
Beta
0.71
Shares Out
98.89M
P/E (TTM)
19.5
P/S (TTM)
0.98
P/FCF (TTM)
18.18
Rev YoY
+27.3%
EPS YoY
+5.3%
Gross Margin
+17.1%
Op Margin
+9.9%
Net Debt
$1.24B
Current Ratio
1.32
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data