B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CXW
CoreCivicFNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 confirmed real operating leverage from facility activations: revenue rose to $614.7 million, Adjusted EBITDA reached $110.1 million, ICE revenue nearly doubled year over year, and full-year EBITDA guidance moved up materially. If Midwest, California City, and Diamondback continue ramping and CSP contributes as expected, 2026 earnings power can still move higher from here [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
California City faces litigation risk that could affect operations even though CoreCivic is not currently a party to the lawsuit [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
86
Value
53
Sentiment
22
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $27.00 · Bear $17.00Analysis 2026-05-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $41.80
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d +5.1
Value53 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment22 · Δ7d -2.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • California City faces litigation risk that could affect operations even though CoreCivic is not currently a party to the lawsuit [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • Federal detention demand could remain uneven if DHS enforcement redeployments or strategy changes last longer than management expects.
- • The bear case is that the guidance raise still came with a warning that ICE populations recently declined due to DHS redeployments and strategy changes, while start-up costs remain elevated at newly activated sites and litigation still hangs over California City.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 occupancy ramp must validate the post-Q1 guidance increase
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+1.7
Sentiment
22
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-4.5
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 85.9 / Value 53.0 / Sentiment 21.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.32B
Beta
0.71
Shares Out
98.89M
P/E (TTM)
19.5
P/S (TTM)
0.98
P/FCF (TTM)
18.18
Rev YoY
+27.3%
EPS YoY
+5.3%
Gross Margin
+17.1%
Op Margin
+9.9%
Net Debt
$1.24B
Current Ratio
1.32
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data