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CVX

ChevronC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print supports a stronger operating and cash-flow profile: production scaled after Hess, cost and synergy targets were achieved early, refinery throughput was record-setting, and the Microsoft power agreement adds a potential long-duration growth avenue. Guyana provides a longer-term production-growth option.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
A dated July 31 post-earnings closing-price reaction was not independently verified; the latest packet anchor is $190.40 on August 4.
Momentum
78
Value
52
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $200.00 · Bull $230.00 · Bear $160.00Analysis 2026-08-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
53 · Near miss
Next 2026-10-30 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-27 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $232.67
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d -5.5
Value52 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Earnings surprise screen
53Near miss2026-10-30 bmo
View setup

Consensus estimates rose over the prior 90 days and the stock had a strong five-day gain, but the latest observed session lacked a high close and volume confirmation; strong recent run-up also leaves less margin for an upside surprise.

Screen as of 2026-10-27. Window 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-02.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 53 / near miss.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A dated July 31 post-earnings closing-price reaction was not independently verified; the latest packet anchor is $190.40 on August 4.
  • • China demand and broader global energy demand remain uncertain.
  • • The earnings surge is highly commodity- and disruption-sensitive, while political pressure over fuel prices and uncertainty around China could reduce the benefit.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30 · BMO

Q2 2026 earnings beat with record operating execution

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
78
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.5
Δ21d
-5.5
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-19.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 78.3 / Value 52.4 / Sentiment 51.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-05. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$230.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$458.4B
Beta
0.69
Shares Out
1.98B
P/E (TTM)
23.1
P/S (TTM)
1.76
P/FCF (TTM)
103.42
Rev YoY
+51.1%
EPS YoY
+323.3%
Gross Margin
+18.5%
Op Margin
+13.3%
Net Debt
$40.27B
Current Ratio
1.25
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data