B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CVLT
CommvaultCNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The primary earnings release shows strong recurring growth, SaaS acceleration, ARR expansion, improved cash generation, and maintained FY27 profitability and cash-flow objectives. Microsoft ecosystem expansion adds a potential demand and distribution lever [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.
What can break
Execution risk against updated FY27 subscription ARR, margin, and free-cash-flow targets.
Momentum
39
Value
53
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $128.00 · Bull $160.00 · Bear $95.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $160.75
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d -24.6
Value53 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk against updated FY27 subscription ARR, margin, and free-cash-flow targets.
- • May open-market sales by the CEO and CFO add a secondary sentiment overhang but do not establish an operating trend [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-26].
- • The negative post-print reaction implies elevated expectations or concern about forward conversion.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-28
Q1 FY27 results and updated outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
39
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-24.6
Δ21d
-22.9
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
+4.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 38.6 / Value 52.8 / Sentiment 58.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$128.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.98B
Beta
0.59
Shares Out
41.44M
P/E (TTM)
70.8
P/S (TTM)
5.05
P/FCF (TTM)
26.44
Rev YoY
+11.4%
EPS YoY
-2.7%
Gross Margin
+80.3%
Op Margin
+9.0%
Net Debt
$17.51M
Current Ratio
2.04
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data