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CVLT

CommvaultD
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The primary earnings release shows strong recurring growth, SaaS acceleration, ARR expansion, improved cash generation, and maintained FY27 profitability and cash-flow objectives. Microsoft ecosystem expansion adds a potential demand and distribution lever [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
Execution risk against updated FY27 subscription ARR, margin, and free-cash-flow targets.
Momentum
78
Value
52
Sentiment
30
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $128.00 · Bull $160.00 · Bear $95.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $170.06
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d -9.4
Value52 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment30 · Δ7d -12.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk against updated FY27 subscription ARR, margin, and free-cash-flow targets.
  • • May open-market sales by the CEO and CFO add a secondary sentiment overhang but do not establish an operating trend [#SEC-FORM4-2026-05-26].
  • • The negative post-print reaction implies elevated expectations or concern about forward conversion.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · BMO

Q1 FY27 results and updated outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
78
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.4
Δ21d
-13.4
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
30
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.0
Δ21d
-16.8
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 78.3 / Value 51.6 / Sentiment 29.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$160.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$128.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$6.95B
Beta
0.59
Shares Out
41.44M
P/E (TTM)
70.8
P/S (TTM)
5.05
P/FCF (TTM)
26.44
Rev YoY
+11.4%
EPS YoY
-2.7%
Gross Margin
+80.3%
Op Margin
+9.0%
Net Debt
$17.51M
Current Ratio
2.04
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data