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CVGI

Commercial Vehicle GroupD
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Higher international demand and new-program ramps supported 13.5% Q2 revenue growth and a substantial revenue-guidance increase. Gross-margin improvement and eventual cash generation could improve earnings quality if volume persists [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA margin declined despite stronger revenue and gross margin; SG&A and interest costs could absorb operating gains [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
Momentum
7
Value
54
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.90 · Bull $3.80 · Bear $1.75Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-03
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.50
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d +2.4
Value54 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment44 · Δ7d +0.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA margin declined despite stronger revenue and gross margin; SG&A and interest costs could absorb operating gains [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
  • • At-the-market issuance reduced term debt but diluted shareholders; positive free cash flow remains an outlook rather than a demonstrated 2026 result [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
  • • The Q2 adjusted net loss widened to $0.13 per share, adjusted EBITDA margin slipped, and the company used approximately $11.6 million of at-the-market equity proceeds to repay debt.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-03

Validate raised 2026 outlook and cash generation

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
7
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
+1.9
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-26.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 7.2 / Value 54.0 / Sentiment 43.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$2.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$132.87M
Beta
1.93
Shares Out
40.63M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.9
P/S (TTM)
0.09
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-605.56
Rev YoY
+13.5%
EPS YoY
+109.1%
Gross Margin
+12.8%
Op Margin
+1.6%
Net Debt
$111.26M
Current Ratio
1.98
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data