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CVGI

Commercial Vehicle GroupB
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Revenue growth across all three segments, raised full-year guidance, new-business ramps, gross-margin improvement, and debt reduction could produce operating leverage if demand continues to recover.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.
What can break
Analyst revisions, options positioning, short interest, employee sentiment, and social coverage are unavailable, limiting confidence.
Momentum
7
Value
54
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.55 · Bull $4.10 · Bear $2.55Analysis 2026-08-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.50
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d +2.4
Value54 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d -1.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst revisions, options positioning, short interest, employee sentiment, and social coverage are unavailable, limiting confidence.
  • • Cyclical vehicle production and macroeconomic uncertainty remain important demand risks [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-11].
  • • Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin fell despite strong revenue growth, adjusted EPS missed the stored estimate context, and higher SG&A and incentive costs may prevent profitable conversion.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-15

Raised outlook and continued deleveraging

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
+2.8
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-6.8
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-26.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 7.2 / Value 54.3 / Sentiment 74.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-17. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$137.75M
Beta
1.93
Shares Out
40.63M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.0
P/S (TTM)
0.09
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-627.78
Rev YoY
+13.5%
EPS YoY
+109.1%
Gross Margin
+12.8%
Op Margin
+1.6%
Net Debt
$111.26M
Current Ratio
1.98
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data