B+
Bull case
28%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CVEO
CiveoBNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary company disclosure showed a stronger Q1 than the prior year, with revenue up 20%, Adjusted EBITDA up 78%, Canada back to positive Adjusted EBITDA and the low end of 2026 revenue guidance raised to $675 million [#8-K-2026-05-01]. Secondary earnings coverage also described Q1 as ahead of consensus on both EPS and revenue.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.3.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA guidance was unchanged at $85 million-$90 million even after the revenue floor was raised, leaving margin conversion as the main post-earnings debate [#8-K-2026-05-01].
Momentum
68
Value
61
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.50 · Bull $38.00 · Bear $26.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $40.94
Why
Momentum68 · Δ7d -2.7
Value61 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +1.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted EBITDA guidance was unchanged at $85 million-$90 million even after the revenue floor was raised, leaving margin conversion as the main post-earnings debate [#8-K-2026-05-01].
- • Australia's Q1 results benefited from a stronger Australian dollar, which management said added about $12.0 million of revenue and $2.1 million of Adjusted EBITDA, so some apparent strength was translational rather than purely operational [#8-K-2026-05-01].
- • The stock still closed at $31.21 on May 1, 2026, down 2.16% on the day, indicating investors focused on the unchanged $85 million-$90 million EBITDA guide, higher leverage after repurchases and the fact that part of the Australia strength was FX-assisted.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Completion of the current buyback authorization could keep supporting the tape
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
68
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
+17.1
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+6.8
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-1.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 67.6 / Value 60.7 / Sentiment 60.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
47%
Probability
Target price
$34.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$348.77M
Beta
0.62
Shares Out
10.34M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-21.3
P/S (TTM)
0.44
P/FCF (TTM)
6.40
Rev YoY
+10.6%
EPS YoY
-8.3%
Gross Margin
+13.1%
Op Margin
+1.9%
Net Debt
$186.4M
Current Ratio
1.89
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data