B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CVEO
CiveoCNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Second-quarter revenue rose 11% to $180.0 million, operating cash flow was $11.6 million, and maintained guidance leaves room for Canadian contract ramp-up and Australian recovery. Stonegate reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA above its own estimates, but that is one firm's assessment rather than broad analyst confirmation [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30] (Stonegate update).
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.7.
What can break
Australian customers' caution around diesel cost and availability could prolong occupancy and margin pressure [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
Momentum
22
Value
62
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $28.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $20.00Analysis 2026-10-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $40.80
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d -11.2
Value62 · Δ7d +0.7
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -16.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Australian customers' caution around diesel cost and availability could prolong occupancy and margin pressure [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
- • Canadian integrated-services start-up costs could offset revenue growth [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
- • Adjusted EBITDA declined to $23.8 million from $25.0 million despite revenue growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Test of second-half Canadian growth outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
22
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-11.2
Δ21d
-45.6
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+2.2
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.6
Δ21d
-9.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 21.7 / Value 62.3 / Sentiment 54.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$288.92M
Beta
0.62
Shares Out
10.34M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-17.6
P/S (TTM)
0.44
P/FCF (TTM)
6.40
Rev YoY
+10.6%
EPS YoY
-8.3%
Gross Margin
+13.1%
Op Margin
+1.9%
Net Debt
$186.4M
Current Ratio
1.89
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data