B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$45.15
+18.7% vs current
CTRE
CareTrust REITCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
At close
2026-06-03
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment AIMost likely
B
Base case
65%
Probability
Target price
$39.78
+4.6% vs current
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
-13.2% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-02-06
Recent news sentiment (30D)
-25.8
Negative
Company
-45.0
Negative
Macro
-25.0
Negative
Pulse
-45.4
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+51.7
Score
AI commentary
Recent analyst coverage is modestly positive with a consensus median near $39.78 and occasional higher targets up to $45.15, implying cautious optimism among sell-side contributors [#SERP-2], [#SERP-5]. Market discussion centers on rate sensitivity and portfolio-level fundamentals (occupancy/reimbursement), producing mixed tone across sources [#SERP-3], [#SERP-8].
RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2026-02-06
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-05-07eventQuarterly earnings & dividend update (Q4/FY2025)Medium impact
Quarterly results and any dividend commentary could move the stock; consensus analyst targets clustered near mid-$30s–$40s suggest earnings/dividend tone will be important for re-rating [#SERP-2], [#SERP-3].
2026-05-07catalystAnalyst target revisions / consensus updatesHigh impact
Ongoing analyst updates (consensus median ~$39.78) can lift or lower market expectations; recent published ranges show low ~35.79 to high ~45.15 and frequent revisions by 12-month-target providers [#SERP-1], [#SERP-5].
2027-02-06catalystInterest-rate / cap-rate environment and portfolio NAV revaluationHigh impact
A sustained move in rates or cap-rate compression/expansion will materially change NAV and dividend coverage over the next 12 months; senior-housing REITs are rate-sensitive and will reflect this in valuations [#SERP-3], [#SERP-8].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-02-06 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology