B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$45.15
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
CTRE
CareTrust REITCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes NAV re-rating, accretive portfolio acquisitions, and stabilized occupancy that validates the higher analyst high (~$45.15). Dividend sustainability and stronger-than-expected rent growth would support this outcome.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Capital-markets funding illiquidity for acquisitions/refinancing
Momentum
43
Value
54
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $39.78 · Bull $45.15 · Bear $33.00Analysis 2026-02-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.67
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d -4.7
Value54 · Δ7d -
Sentiment55 · Δ7d +3.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital-markets funding illiquidity for acquisitions/refinancing
- • Dividend cut or weaker payout coverage
- • Bear case assumes persistent occupancy pressure, lower reimbursement/lease terms, or a meaningful rise in cap rates that compresses NAV and forces dividend cuts; this could push the stock materially below the current anchor.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Quarterly earnings & dividend update (Q4/FY2025)
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
43
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-4.7
Δ21d
-1.0
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
-9.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 42.7 / Value 54.2 / Sentiment 55.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
65%
Probability
Target price
$39.78
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8.65B
Beta
0.78
Shares Out
236.29M
P/E (TTM)
26.9
P/S (TTM)
18.80
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
65.02
Rev YoY
+43.5%
EPS YoY
+7.1%
Gross Margin
+78.6%
Op Margin
+64.9%
Net Debt
$696.18M
Current Ratio
6.76
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data