B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$45.15
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
CTRE
CareTrust REITDNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case assumes NAV re-rating, accretive portfolio acquisitions, and stabilized occupancy that validates the higher analyst high (~$45.15). Dividend sustainability and stronger-than-expected rent growth would support this outcome.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.0.
What can break
Capital-markets funding illiquidity for acquisitions/refinancing
Momentum
38
Value
53
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $39.78 · Bull $45.15 · Bear $33.00Analysis 2026-02-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $45.07
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d +7.6
Value53 · Δ7d -
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +8.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital-markets funding illiquidity for acquisitions/refinancing
- • Dividend cut or weaker payout coverage
- • Bear case assumes persistent occupancy pressure, lower reimbursement/lease terms, or a meaningful rise in cap rates that compresses NAV and forces dividend cuts; this could push the stock materially below the current anchor.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Quarterly earnings & dividend update (Q4/FY2025)
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
38
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.6
Δ21d
-7.6
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.0
Δ21d
+2.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 37.6 / Value 53.0 / Sentiment 52.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
65%
Probability
Target price
$39.78
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$9.28B
Beta
0.78
Shares Out
236.29M
P/E (TTM)
26.9
P/S (TTM)
18.80
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
69.71
Rev YoY
+43.5%
EPS YoY
+7.1%
Gross Margin
+78.6%
Op Margin
+64.9%
Net Debt
$696.18M
Current Ratio
6.76
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data