B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CTOS
Custom Truck One SourceDNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest fresh evidence is operational: Q1 revenue and EBITDA both beat prior-year levels by a wide margin, utilization improved to 81.4%, guidance moved higher, and leverage ticked down to 4.02x from 4.31x. That supports a view that the SER business is benefiting from real T&D demand rather than only financial engineering.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.6.
What can break
GAAP profitability is still weak: CTOS reported a Q1 net loss of $4.1M despite stronger Adjusted EBITDA. [#8-K-2026-04-27]
Momentum
33
Value
51
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.20 · Bull $10.50 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-04-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.33
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d -4.3
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -1.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • GAAP profitability is still weak: CTOS reported a Q1 net loss of $4.1M despite stronger Adjusted EBITDA. [#8-K-2026-04-27]
- • Inventory increased to roughly $1.02B at March 31, 2026 from about $0.93B at December 31, 2025, creating working-capital and demand-normalization risk if orders soften. [#10-Q-2026-04-27]
- • The memo remains cautious because CTOS still posted a GAAP net loss, leverage is still high at just over 4x, inventory rose to about $1.02B from $0.93B at year-end, and STEM backlog was down 2% YoY even though still within the targeted four-to-six-month range.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-28
Q1 print and EBITDA guidance raise reset the near-term setup
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.3
Δ21d
-35.9
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+2.5
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.6
Δ21d
+7.9
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 33.5 / Value 51.5 / Sentiment 51.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.39B
Beta
1.17
Shares Out
227.51M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-76.7
P/S (TTM)
0.72
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-12.78
Rev YoY
+10.2%
EPS YoY
-136.2%
Gross Margin
+20.2%
Op Margin
+8.9%
Net Debt
$2.41B
Current Ratio
1.34
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data