RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

CTOS

Custom Truck One SourceC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The strongest fresh evidence is operational: Q1 revenue and EBITDA both beat prior-year levels by a wide margin, utilization improved to 81.4%, guidance moved higher, and leverage ticked down to 4.02x from 4.31x. That supports a view that the SER business is benefiting from real T&D demand rather than only financial engineering.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
What can break
GAAP profitability is still weak: CTOS reported a Q1 net loss of $4.1M despite stronger Adjusted EBITDA. [#8-K-2026-04-27]
Momentum
69
Value
51
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.20 · Bull $10.50 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-04-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-26 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.33
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d -14.0
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment47 · Δ7d +0.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • GAAP profitability is still weak: CTOS reported a Q1 net loss of $4.1M despite stronger Adjusted EBITDA. [#8-K-2026-04-27]
  • • Inventory increased to roughly $1.02B at March 31, 2026 from about $0.93B at December 31, 2025, creating working-capital and demand-normalization risk if orders soften. [#10-Q-2026-04-27]
  • • The memo remains cautious because CTOS still posted a GAAP net loss, leverage is still high at just over 4x, inventory rose to about $1.02B from $0.93B at year-end, and STEM backlog was down 2% YoY even though still within the targeted four-to-six-month range.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-26 · AMC

Q1 print and EBITDA guidance raise reset the near-term setup

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
69
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.0
Δ21d
-8.3
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
47
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+2.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 69.1 / Value 51.2 / Sentiment 47.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.06B
Beta
1.17
Shares Out
227.51M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-66.2
P/S (TTM)
0.72
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-11.04
Rev YoY
+10.2%
EPS YoY
-136.2%
Gross Margin
+20.2%
Op Margin
+8.9%
Net Debt
$2.41B
Current Ratio
1.34
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data