B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CTMX
CytomX TherapeuticsCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Positive Varseta-M data, completed dose-optimization enrollment, potential registrational-path progress, and reported cash runway extending to at least the second half of 2028 support a constructive upside case [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.6.
What can break
Clinical-stage development requires continued cash deployment and may create financing or dilution risk despite the reported runway.
Momentum
26
Value
41
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.60 · Bull $5.25 · Bear $1.90Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $12.25
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d +22.3
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment65 · Δ7d +6.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Clinical-stage development requires continued cash deployment and may create financing or dilution risk despite the reported runway.
- • Combination-study and other pipeline milestones may slip or produce weaker-than-expected results.
- • The thesis remains dependent on clinical activity, tolerability, dose selection, regulatory alignment, and execution against multiple development milestones.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 2026 results and business update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
26
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+22.3
Δ21d
+28.2
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-10.5
Sentiment
65
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
-7.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 26.0 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 65.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$751.75M
Beta
2.44
Shares Out
217.9M
P/E (TTM)
10.2
P/S (TTM)
6.14
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-7.53
Rev YoY
-92.4%
EPS YoY
+7766.7%
Gross Margin
+94.9%
Op Margin
-476.7%
Net Debt
-$132.81M
Current Ratio
9.36
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data