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CSTM

Constellium SEA
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Second-quarter segment Adjusted EBITDA reached a company record despite shipments falling 1% year over year; management cited operational focus, cost control, improved aerospace and transportation demand, North American automotive rolled-product shortages, and recycling performance. Sustained cash conversion could validate raised guidance.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
Customer demand, supply disruption, inflation, tariffs and indebtedness remain disclosed operating risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] SEC-filed earnings presentation
Momentum
47
Value
70
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $17.00Analysis 2026-10-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $34.00
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -7.9
Value70 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -1.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Customer demand, supply disruption, inflation, tariffs and indebtedness remain disclosed operating risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] SEC-filed earnings presentation
  • • Failure to generate the more than $205 million of second-half free cash flow implied by guidance and first-half results. SEC-filed earnings release
  • • Headline second-quarter Adjusted EBITDA included a $129 million positive non-cash metal-price-lag effect.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · BMO

October 28 third-quarter results

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
47
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.9
Δ21d
+7.3
Value
70
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-35.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 47.0 / Value 70.0 / Sentiment 62.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.15B
Beta
1.50
Shares Out
135.53M
P/E (TTM)
22.4
P/S (TTM)
0.34
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
14.69
Rev YoY
+30.7%
EPS YoY
+311.6%
Gross Margin
+12.8%
Op Margin
+8.4%
Net Debt
$1.94B
Current Ratio
1.43
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data