B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CSTM
Constellium SEBNYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest primary evidence is still the April 29, 2026 Q1 release: revenue rose 24% year over year to $2.461 billion, adjusted EBITDA reached $359 million, and management raised 2026 guidance while keeping leverage at 2.2x and repurchasing stock [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29]. If Q2 confirms that the stronger end-market mix and operating execution persist, the stock can still work from here.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Free cash flow was only $5 million in Q1, so the raised full-year cash target still requires stronger conversion in later quarters [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29].
Momentum
19
Value
69
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $29.00 · Bull $36.50 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-07-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $37.20
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d -4.7
Value69 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d -0.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Free cash flow was only $5 million in Q1, so the raised full-year cash target still requires stronger conversion in later quarters [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29].
- • Management explicitly cited macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, and the earnings materials also flagged tariff, inflation, foreign-exchange, supply, and customer-demand risks [#SEC-8K-2026-04-29].
- • The main caution is earnings quality and repeatability.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-29
July 29, 2026 Q2 print is the next proof point for the raised 2026 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.7
Δ21d
-6.2
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+5.2
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-4.9
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 19.0 / Value 69.0 / Sentiment 71.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-12. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.05B
Beta
1.50
Shares Out
135.53M
P/E (TTM)
22.4
P/S (TTM)
0.34
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
18.93
Rev YoY
+30.7%
EPS YoY
+311.6%
Gross Margin
+12.8%
Op Margin
+8.4%
Net Debt
$1.94B
Current Ratio
1.43
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data