B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$470.00
-3.5% vs current
CRS
CarpenterCNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
At close
2026-06-03
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$410.00
-15.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$350.00
-28.1% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-04-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.3
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+31.9
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source tone turned more constructive on April 29, 2026 because the company posted record Q3 profit and raised FY2026 operating-income and free-cash-flow outlook [#8-K-2026-04-29]. Even so, web finance showed CRS at $406.53 on April 29, 2026 versus the $428.14 April 28 anchor, implying the market reaction was negative despite the beat-and-raise profile. At T+1, the packet does not provide reliable post-print analyst revision breadth, so this remains a monitoring-style hold rather than a higher-conviction upgrade.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-04-29eventQ3 FY2026 record profit and raised FY2026 outlookMedium impact
Carpenter reported record Q3 operating income of $186.5 million, EPS of $2.77, SAO adjusted operating margin of 35.6%, and raised FY2026 operating income guidance to $700 million-$705 million with adjusted free cash flow around $350 million; this confirms strong execution but also resets the hurdle for follow-through after a large prior run-up [#8-K-2026-04-29].
2026-07-29catalystFQ4 delivery against raised guidanceMedium impact
Management guided FQ4 operating income to $205 million-$210 million and said aerospace and defense demand is accelerating, with sequential growth in commercial aerospace structural bookings; the next quarterly update now matters more because the stock needs proof that elevated margins, bookings and cash conversion can hold after the guidance raise [#8-K-2026-04-29].
2027-06-30catalystFY2027 margin durability tied to aerospace demand, pricing and productivityHigh impact
Management framed the company as well-positioned for continued growth in FY2027 and beyond, supported by stronger aerospace demand, pricing actions, product-mix improvement and productivity gains; if SAO margins near current records prove durable, the long-cycle earnings base can expand further, though the 10-K still highlights cyclical end-market and customer build-rate risks [#8-K-2026-04-29] [#10-K-2025-08-12].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-04-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology