B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$470.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CRS
CarpenterDNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexMost likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$410.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$350.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-04-29
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+0.3
Mixed
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
-
Unavailable
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
-
Unavailable
Sentiment proxy
+55.8
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source tone turned more constructive on April 29, 2026 because the company posted record Q3 profit and raised FY2026 operating-income and free-cash-flow outlook [#8-K-2026-04-29]. Even so, web finance showed CRS at $406.53 on April 29, 2026 versus the $428.14 April 28 anchor, implying the market reaction was negative despite the beat-and-raise profile. At T+1, the packet does not provide reliable post-print analyst revision breadth, so this remains a monitoring-style hold rather than a higher-conviction upgrade.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-04-29
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-04-29eventQ3 FY2026 record profit and raised FY2026 outlookMedium impact
Carpenter reported record Q3 operating income of $186.5 million, EPS of $2.77, SAO adjusted operating margin of 35.6%, and raised FY2026 operating income guidance to $700 million-$705 million with adjusted free cash flow around $350 million; this confirms strong execution but also resets the hurdle for follow-through after a large prior run-up [#8-K-2026-04-29].
2026-07-29catalystFQ4 delivery against raised guidanceMedium impact
Management guided FQ4 operating income to $205 million-$210 million and said aerospace and defense demand is accelerating, with sequential growth in commercial aerospace structural bookings; the next quarterly update now matters more because the stock needs proof that elevated margins, bookings and cash conversion can hold after the guidance raise [#8-K-2026-04-29].
2027-06-30catalystFY2027 margin durability tied to aerospace demand, pricing and productivityHigh impact
Management framed the company as well-positioned for continued growth in FY2027 and beyond, supported by stronger aerospace demand, pricing actions, product-mix improvement and productivity gains; if SAO margins near current records prove durable, the long-cycle earnings base can expand further, though the 10-K still highlights cyclical end-market and customer build-rate risks [#8-K-2026-04-29] [#10-K-2025-08-12].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-04-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology