B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$470.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CRS
CarpenterDNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull view is that Q3 confirmed a real earnings step-up: record operating income, record SAO margins, strong cash generation, raised FY2026 operating-income and free-cash-flow outlook, and management commentary that aerospace and defense demand is accelerating [#8-K-2026-04-29].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
A roughly 5.0% post-print intraday drop on April 29, 2026 despite record results suggests the bar was high and raises near-term de-rating risk if FQ4 falls short.
Momentum
31
Value
48
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $410.00 · Bull $470.00 · Bear $350.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $625.88
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d -4.1
Value48 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +8.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A roughly 5.0% post-print intraday drop on April 29, 2026 despite record results suggests the bar was high and raises near-term de-rating risk if FQ4 falls short.
- • Aerospace and defense demand is central to the thesis, but the 10-K still flags cyclical end-market exposure, customer build-rate volatility and concentration around commercial aviation execution [#10-K-2025-08-12].
- • The bear view is that much of the good news was already embedded in expectations and valuation; the stock traded below the April 28, 2026 anchor after the release, so investors may require additional proof that SAO margins above 35%, structural aerospace bookings and cash conversion are sustainable rather than peak-like.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-29
Q3 FY2026 record profit and raised FY2026 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
31
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
-11.6
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
51
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.6
Δ21d
+18.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 31.1 / Value 47.7 / Sentiment 51.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$410.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$350.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$26.88B
Beta
1.30
Shares Out
49.56M
P/E (TTM)
41.7
P/S (TTM)
5.86
P/FCF (TTM)
50.50
Rev YoY
+12.6%
EPS YoY
+46.6%
Gross Margin
+30.7%
Op Margin
+22.5%
Net Debt
$334.2M
Current Ratio
3.81
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data