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CRS

CarpenterC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Fiscal Q1 operating income reached $196.4 million, up 28% year over year; Specialty Alloys Operations adjusted margin rose to 37.7%. Stronger aerospace bookings, pricing and productivity could support the maintained $850 million–$880 million FY2027 operating-income outlook [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Brownfield expansion timing, cost and achievable capacity remain execution risks to the FY2029 target [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22].
Momentum
14
Value
53
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $310.00 · Bull $360.00 · Bear $240.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $536.25
Why
Momentum14 · Δ7d -4.6
Value53 · Δ7d +3.8
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -2.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bearish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-25.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Brownfield expansion timing, cost and achievable capacity remain execution risks to the FY2029 target [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22].
  • • Fiscal Q1 free cash flow was negative $24.8 million despite $196.4 million of operating income; cash conversion warrants monitoring [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22].
  • • Revenue of $798.2 million missed the roughly $830.7 million consensus despite $3.25 EPS exceeding roughly $3.04 expected; planned maintenance contributed to sequential pressure.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Commercial-aerospace bookings conversion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
14
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.6
Δ21d
-1.2
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.8
Δ21d
+3.3
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.6
Δ21d
-6.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 13.6 / Value 53.2 / Sentiment 63.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$360.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$310.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$240.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$14.11B
Beta
1.30
Shares Out
49.56M
P/E (TTM)
41.7
P/S (TTM)
5.86
P/FCF (TTM)
50.50
Rev YoY
+12.6%
EPS YoY
+46.6%
Gross Margin
+30.7%
Op Margin
+22.5%
Net Debt
$334.2M
Current Ratio
3.81
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data