B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$142.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CROX
CrocsBNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 operating momentum, continued DTC execution, product innovation, and substantial repurchase capacity could support earnings durability and eventual rerating [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.
What can break
Analyst estimate revisions, rating changes, and detailed consensus data are unavailable.
Momentum
41
Value
63
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $120.00 · Bull $142.00 · Bear $98.00Analysis 2026-08-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $138.25
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d -5.1
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +3.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst estimate revisions, rating changes, and detailed consensus data are unavailable.
- • Execution risk across brands and channels could weaken the longer-term rerating case.
- • The deterministic prior has turned negative across all modeled horizons, while forward expectation risk, recent CEO selling, and unavailable analyst revisions reduce confidence in a near-term recovery.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
Q2 filing confirmed results and expanded repurchase capacity
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.1
Δ21d
-17.0
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
-3.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 40.9 / Value 63.4 / Sentiment 71.9
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$98.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.23B
Beta
1.56
Shares Out
47.95M
P/E (TTM)
27.9
P/S (TTM)
1.09
P/FCF (TTM)
6.20
Rev YoY
+2.6%
EPS YoY
-146.8%
Gross Margin
+57.5%
Op Margin
+20.8%
Net Debt
$1.48B
Current Ratio
1.49
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data