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CRNC

CerenceA
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 demonstrated solid profitability and cash generation, while the reported buyback authorization and progress in xUI/cloud initiatives could improve shareholder returns and recurring-revenue quality. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
What can break
An EVP reported an open-market sale of 25,998 shares on 2026-08-10; this is a secondary sentiment signal and not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-12]
Momentum
9
Value
69
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.75 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-09-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $10.75
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d +2.3
Value69 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment80 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • An EVP reported an open-market sale of 25,998 shares on 2026-08-10; this is a secondary sentiment signal and not evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-12]
  • • Business remains exposed to automotive production, customer forecasts, concentration, contract renewals, cancellations, and pricing pressure. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • The Q4 outlook implies a meaningful sequential slowdown, with transition risk from lower fixed-license activity.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q3 execution and cash generation

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+5.1
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
-8.5
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 9.2 / Value 68.9 / Sentiment 80.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$9.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$385.36M
Beta
2.59
Shares Out
45.23M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
16.9
P/S (TTM)
1.98
P/FCF (TTM)
10.66
Rev YoY
+11.8%
EPS YoY
-151.0%
Gross Margin
+78.7%
Op Margin
+11.9%
Net Debt
$129.72M
Current Ratio
2.04
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data