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CRCL

Circle Internet GroupD
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 demonstrated continued USDC scale, strong transaction-volume growth, improving revenue-less-distribution-cost margin, and expanding institutional adoption. Arc, CPN, Agent Stack, and the trust-bank approvals provide multiple forward hooks.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
What can break
Arc, Agent Stack, CPN, and trust-bank initiatives may require substantial time before producing material revenue or earnings.
Momentum
50
Value
44
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $72.00 · Bull $100.00 · Bear $48.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $110.47
Why
Momentum50 · Δ7d +7.0
Value44 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment46 · Δ7d -5.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Arc, Agent Stack, CPN, and trust-bank initiatives may require substantial time before producing material revenue or earnings.
  • • Available materials do not document a primary-source consensus beat or miss, and no post-print analyst estimate, target, rating, or guidance revision was identified.
  • • Revenue and reserve income grew only 7% year over year, while management cited slower crypto activity and rate conditions.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q2 2026 results showed operating resilience

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
50
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
-41.5
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
46
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.3
Δ21d
-12.6
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 50.0 / Value 43.7 / Sentiment 45.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$20.37B
Beta
-
Shares Out
255.11M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-278.3
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
27.28
Rev YoY
+6.6%
EPS YoY
-108.5%
Gross Margin
+18.4%
Op Margin
+8.3%
Net Debt
-$1.48B
Current Ratio
1.03
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data