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CRC

California ResourcesB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.17 exceeded Zacks' $0.94 consensus estimate, while $341 million of adjusted EBITDAX exceeded company guidance. Production reached 152 MBoe/d, free cash flow was $147 million, and CRC raised its quarterly dividend to $0.42.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-11-06.
What can break
Commodity-price and derivative exposure: Q3 included a $540 million non-cash derivative fair-value loss, and realized oil prices with derivative settlements were below prices without them. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-02]
Momentum
35
Value
66
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $52.00 · Bull $60.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-11-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-06 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-06 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-11-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-06

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-06. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $74.14
Why
Momentum35 · Δ7d -0.3
Value66 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -4.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-11-06.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Commodity-price and derivative exposure: Q3 included a $540 million non-cash derivative fair-value loss, and realized oil prices with derivative settlements were below prices without them. [#SEC-8K-2026-11-02]
  • • Full-year 2027 guidance has not yet been issued, limiting confidence in the six-rig capital plan's eventual returns. SEC-filed earnings release
  • • The quarter included a $315 million GAAP net loss, including a $540 million non-cash loss from changes in commodity-derivative fair value.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-20

Q3 earnings beat meets a negative post-print reaction

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
35
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-6.0
Value
66
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
63
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
-3.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 34.7 / Value 66.0 / Sentiment 62.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-11-05. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-11-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-11-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-11-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-06
Market Cap
$4.15B
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
88.28M
P/E (TTM)
10.6
P/S (TTM)
1.12
P/FCF (TTM)
9.96
Rev YoY
+33.0%
EPS YoY
+199.2%
Gross Margin
+39.7%
Op Margin
+21.6%
Net Debt
$1.23B
Current Ratio
0.66
As of 2026-11-06 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data