B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
CPF
Central Pacific FinancialCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that CPF exits 2025 with visibly stronger profitability: fourth-quarter EPS was $0.85, NIM improved to 3.56%, efficiency improved, deposit costs fell, capital ratios remained strong, and the board added a fresh $55 million buyback plus a higher dividend [#8-K-2026-01-28]. If first-quarter 2026 confirms those trends, the stock can grind toward the mid-to-high $30s.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.4.
What can break
Credit quality remains controlled, but a small-bank earnings profile can change quickly if Hawaii commercial real estate or local business conditions weaken.
Momentum
43
Value
57
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $39.00 · Bear $29.00Analysis 2026-04-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.00
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d +1.3
Value57 · Δ7d -8.2
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +1.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Credit quality remains controlled, but a small-bank earnings profile can change quickly if Hawaii commercial real estate or local business conditions weaken.
- • Loan balances were down sequentially in fourth-quarter 2025, so revenue growth still needs confirmation.
- • The bear case is that this remains mostly a monitoring story rather than a clear growth story.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-29
April 29, 2026 first-quarter earnings check on NIM and funding durability
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
43
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-19.4
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.2
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
56
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+2.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 42.8 / Value 57.0 / Sentiment 55.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$29.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$988.7M
Beta
0.95
Shares Out
25.75M
P/E (TTM)
12.9
P/S (TTM)
3.06
P/FCF (TTM)
12.19
Rev YoY
+2.4%
EPS YoY
+18.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.9%
Net Debt
$13.9M
Current Ratio
0.12
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data