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Canadian Pacific Kansas CityADocument history
Earnings documents stored for CP.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-08-28Why Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Up 6.5% Since Last Earnings Report?
Zacks
Why Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Up 6.5% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP). Shares have added about 6.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500. But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Canadian Pacific Kansas City due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited reported better-than-expected second-quarter 2026 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the company’s stock has declined 2.6% since its earnings release on July 29, 2026. Quarterly earnings of 92 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 89 cents by 3.4%. The bottom line increased 13% year over year on a core adjusted basis. Operating revenues of $3.01 billion surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.91 billion by 3.3%. In Canadian dollars, revenues increased 13% year over year to C$4.16 billion. In the reported quarter, total freight revenues per revenue ton-mile increased 9% year over year. Total freight revenues per carload rose 12%, reflecting favorable pricing and business mix. On a reported basis, operating income increased 10% year over year to C$1.47 billion. However, total operating expenses rose 14% to C$2.69 billion, mainly due to a 53% increase in fuel expenses. The reported operating ratio deteriorated 90 basis points to 64.6%, while the core adjusted operating ratio worsened by the same magnitude to 61.6%. Volumes, measured in revenue ton-miles, increased 4% year over year to 57.58 billion. Average train speed improved 7%, while average terminal dwell declined 16%, indicating stronger network efficiency. Freight revenues, which accounted for 98% of the top line, increased 13% year over year to C$4.09 billion. CP’s freight business comprises Grain (up 24%), Coal (down 18%), Potash (up 10%), Fertilizers and Sulphur (up 12%), Forest Products (up 2%), Energy, Chemicals and Plastics (up 9%), Metals, Minerals and Consumer Products (up 18%), Automotive (up 22%) and Intermodal (up 11%). Grain benefited from a record Canadian harvest and strong U.S. export demand. Automotive revenues gained f…Read full documentShow less
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP). Shares have added about 6.5% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500. But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Canadian Pacific Kansas City due for a pullback? Well, first let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited reported better-than-expected second-quarter 2026 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the company’s stock has declined 2.6% since its earnings release on July 29, 2026. Quarterly earnings of 92 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 89 cents by 3.4%. The bottom line increased 13% year over year on a core adjusted basis. Operating revenues of $3.01 billion surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.91 billion by 3.3%. In Canadian dollars, revenues increased 13% year over year to C$4.16 billion. In the reported quarter, total freight revenues per revenue ton-mile increased 9% year over year. Total freight revenues per carload rose 12%, reflecting favorable pricing and business mix. On a reported basis, operating income increased 10% year over year to C$1.47 billion. However, total operating expenses rose 14% to C$2.69 billion, mainly due to a 53% increase in fuel expenses. The reported operating ratio deteriorated 90 basis points to 64.6%, while the core adjusted operating ratio worsened by the same magnitude to 61.6%. Volumes, measured in revenue ton-miles, increased 4% year over year to 57.58 billion. Average train speed improved 7%, while average terminal dwell declined 16%, indicating stronger network efficiency. Freight revenues, which accounted for 98% of the top line, increased 13% year over year to C$4.09 billion. CP’s freight business comprises Grain (up 24%), Coal (down 18%), Potash (up 10%), Fertilizers and Sulphur (up 12%), Forest Products (up 2%), Energy, Chemicals and Plastics (up 9%), Metals, Minerals and Consumer Products (up 18%), Automotive (up 22%) and Intermodal (up 11%). Grain benefited from a record Canadian harvest and strong U.S. export demand. Automotive revenues gained from new business wins, while domestic intermodal benefited from the company’s SMX service and improving truck-to-rail conversion opportunities. Coal remained the primary weak spot due to lower mine production and shipment volumes. Non-freight revenues increased 8.6% year over year to C$76 million in the second quarter. Canadian Pacific exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of C$366 million compared with C$409 million at the prior-quarter end. Long-term debt amounted to C$22.25 billion compared with C$21.88 billion at the prior-quarter end. Net cash provided by operating activities increased 27.4% year over year to C$1.73 billion during the second quarter. Capital expenditures totaled C$758 million compared with C$743 million in the year-ago period. During the first six months of 2026, the company returned C$2.37 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, up 11% year over year. Canadian Pacific continues to expect 2026 core adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to grow in the low double digits from the 2025 level of C$4.61. The company expects 2026 revenue ton-miles to increase in the mid-single digits from the 2025 actual. Management continues to anticipate capital expenditures of approximately C$2.65 billion for 2026, representing a roughly 15% decline from 2025. The core adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 24.75%. CPKC expects improving freight fundamentals, commercial wins, integration benefits and disciplined cost control to support accelerated volume and earnings growth in the second half of 2026. It turns out, estimates revision have trended upward during the past month. Currently, Canadian Pacific Kansas City has a subpar Growth Score of D, however its Momentum Score is doing a lot better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a score of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for value investors. Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in. Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Canadian Pacific Kansas City has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months. Canadian Pacific Kansas City belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Rail industry. Another stock from the same industry, Union Pacific (UNP), has gained 6.3% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2026. Union Pacific reported revenues of $6.86 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +11.5%. EPS of $3.41 for the same period compares with $3.03 a year ago. For the current quarter, Union Pacific is expected to post earnings of $3.43 per share, indicating a change of +11.4% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +0.9% over the last 30 days. Union Pacific has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of D. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) : Free Stock Analysis Report Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-08-03CP Shares Decline 2.6% Since Second-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release
Zacks
CP Shares Decline 2.6% Since Second-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP reported better-than-expected second-quarter 2026 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the company’s stock has declined 2.6% since its earnings release on July 29, 2026. Quarterly earnings of 92 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 89 cents by 3.4%. The bottom line increased 13% year over year on a core adjusted basis. Operating revenues of $3.01 billion surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.91 billion by 3.3%. In Canadian dollars, revenues increased 13% year over year to C$4.16 billion. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Quote In the reported quarter, total freight revenues per revenue ton-mile increased 9% year over year. Total freight revenues per carload rose 12%, reflecting favorable pricing and business mix. On a reported basis, operating income increased 10% year over year to C$1.47 billion. However, total operating expenses rose 14% to C$2.69 billion, mainly due to a 53% increase in fuel expenses. The reported operating ratio deteriorated 90 basis points to 64.6%, while the core adjusted operating ratio worsened by the same magnitude to 61.6%. Volumes, measured in revenue ton-miles, increased 4% year over year to 57.58 billion. Average train speed improved 7%, while average terminal dwell declined 16%, indicating stronger network efficiency. Freight revenues, which accounted for 98% of the top line, increased 13% year over year to C$4.09 billion. CP’s freight business comprises Grain (up 24%), Coal (down 18%), Potash (up 10%), Fertilizers and Sulphur (up 12%), Forest Products (up 2%), Energy, Chemicals and Plastics (up 9%), Metals, Minerals and Consumer Products (up 18%), Automotive (up 22%) and Intermodal (up 11%). Grain benefited from a record Canadian harvest and strong U.S. export demand. Automotive revenues gained from new business wins, while domestic intermodal benefited from the company’s SMX service and improving truck-to-rail conversion opportunities. Coal remained the primary weak spot due to lower mine production and shipment volumes. Non-freight revenues increased 8.6% year over year to C$76 million in the second quarter. Canadian Pacific exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of C$366 million compared with C$409 million at the prior-…Read full documentShow less
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP reported better-than-expected second-quarter 2026 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the company’s stock has declined 2.6% since its earnings release on July 29, 2026. Quarterly earnings of 92 cents per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 89 cents by 3.4%. The bottom line increased 13% year over year on a core adjusted basis. Operating revenues of $3.01 billion surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.91 billion by 3.3%. In Canadian dollars, revenues increased 13% year over year to C$4.16 billion. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Quote In the reported quarter, total freight revenues per revenue ton-mile increased 9% year over year. Total freight revenues per carload rose 12%, reflecting favorable pricing and business mix. On a reported basis, operating income increased 10% year over year to C$1.47 billion. However, total operating expenses rose 14% to C$2.69 billion, mainly due to a 53% increase in fuel expenses. The reported operating ratio deteriorated 90 basis points to 64.6%, while the core adjusted operating ratio worsened by the same magnitude to 61.6%. Volumes, measured in revenue ton-miles, increased 4% year over year to 57.58 billion. Average train speed improved 7%, while average terminal dwell declined 16%, indicating stronger network efficiency. Freight revenues, which accounted for 98% of the top line, increased 13% year over year to C$4.09 billion. CP’s freight business comprises Grain (up 24%), Coal (down 18%), Potash (up 10%), Fertilizers and Sulphur (up 12%), Forest Products (up 2%), Energy, Chemicals and Plastics (up 9%), Metals, Minerals and Consumer Products (up 18%), Automotive (up 22%) and Intermodal (up 11%). Grain benefited from a record Canadian harvest and strong U.S. export demand. Automotive revenues gained from new business wins, while domestic intermodal benefited from the company’s SMX service and improving truck-to-rail conversion opportunities. Coal remained the primary weak spot due to lower mine production and shipment volumes. Non-freight revenues increased 8.6% year over year to C$76 million in the second quarter. Canadian Pacific exited the second quarter with cash and cash equivalents of C$366 million compared with C$409 million at the prior-quarter end. Long-term debt amounted to C$22.25 billion compared with C$21.88 billion at the prior-quarter end. Net cash provided by operating activities increased 27.4% year over year to C$1.73 billion during the second quarter. Capital expenditures totaled C$758 million compared with C$743 million in the year-ago period. During the first six months of 2026, the company returned C$2.37 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, up 11% year over year. Canadian Pacific continues to expect 2026 core adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to grow in the low double digits from the 2025 level of C$4.61. The company expects 2026 revenue ton-miles to increase in the mid-single digits from the 2025 actual. Management continues to anticipate capital expenditures of approximately C$2.65 billion for 2026, representing a roughly 15% decline from 2025. The core adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 24.75%. CPKC expects improving freight fundamentals, commercial wins, integration benefits and disciplined cost control to support accelerated volume and earnings growth in the second half of 2026. Currently, Canadian Pacific has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies WAB, operating as Wabtec Corporation, reported encouraging second-quarter 2026 results, wherein both earnings and revenues surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increased year over year. Quarterly adjusted EPS of $2.76 beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.63 by 4.9% and increased 21.6% year over year, owing to higher sales and operating margin expansion. Revenues climbed 17.5% to $3.18 billion and surpassed the consensus mark of $3.08 billion by 3.2%. United Airlines Holdings, Inc. UAL reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS of $1.99, down 48.6% year over year but above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.92 by 3.7%. Operating revenues rose 16% to $17.67 billion and were essentially in line with the $17.68 billion consensus mark. A 12.1% increase in total revenues per available seat mile or TRASM, and broad-based gains across premium, loyalty and cargo revenues, supported the top line despite sharply higher fuel costs. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) : Free Stock Analysis Report United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) : Free Stock Analysis Report Wabtec (WAB) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-30Hedge Funds Favor Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Over Canadian Pacific (CP): UNP Beat Earnings and Just Got a Major Win
Insider Monkey
Hedge Funds Favor Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Over Canadian Pacific (CP): UNP Beat Earnings and Just Got a Major Win
Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP)'s Big Boy 4014, the world's largest operating steam locomotive, has been touring the country this summer, and grown adults keep tearing up when they see it. CEO Jim Vena said the tour east of the Mississippi wouldn't have been possible without one thing: the railroad operating firm’s pending merger with Norfolk Southern, since Union Pacific's own tracks run west of the river. In part, the nostalgia tour is a goodwill campaign for the biggest deal in the company’s history. On the business itself, Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) reported a strong quarter. Revenue rose 12% to $6.86 billion, beating the $6.71 billion expected, and adjusted earnings came in at $3.41 a share versus $3.24 expected. The company raised its full-year guidance to high-single-digit earnings growth, up from mid-single digits. The stock rose about 2% in premarket trading. Costs rose too; operating expenses climbed 13% to $4.1 billion, mostly from a 63% jump in fuel costs linked to the Iran war. Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) is trying to buy Norfolk Southern in a deal now valued around $71.5 billion, down from an earlier $85 billion price tag as terms have moved with Union Pacific's stock. It would create the first coast-to-coast U.S. railroad. The day before earnings, Union Pacific settled with Canadian National Railway, a major opponent that had been pushing regulators to demand more information. CN will drop its opposition in exchange for expanded Midwest access and a stake in two jointly owned terminal railroads. Vena called it proof the firm is "ready to move forward in the regulatory process." The deal still isn't approved, though. The Surface Transportation Board (STB) paused its review in May and just this week ordered Union Pacific to make employee-impact data public. Rivals BNSF and Canadian Pacific Kansas City are still lobbying against it, and some shippers and state attorneys general remain opposed. The companies still expect to close the deal in the first half of 2027. That raises a real question. Is this merger clearing its last real hurdles, or did the CN settlement just remove one opponent out of several? The core business (Union Pacific's actual railroad operations) is performing well on its own, guidance beat and rose, and pricing power held up despite surging fuel costs. The CN settlement removes a credible opponent and c…Read full documentShow less
Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP)'s Big Boy 4014, the world's largest operating steam locomotive, has been touring the country this summer, and grown adults keep tearing up when they see it. CEO Jim Vena said the tour east of the Mississippi wouldn't have been possible without one thing: the railroad operating firm’s pending merger with Norfolk Southern, since Union Pacific's own tracks run west of the river. In part, the nostalgia tour is a goodwill campaign for the biggest deal in the company’s history. On the business itself, Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) reported a strong quarter. Revenue rose 12% to $6.86 billion, beating the $6.71 billion expected, and adjusted earnings came in at $3.41 a share versus $3.24 expected. The company raised its full-year guidance to high-single-digit earnings growth, up from mid-single digits. The stock rose about 2% in premarket trading. Costs rose too; operating expenses climbed 13% to $4.1 billion, mostly from a 63% jump in fuel costs linked to the Iran war. Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) is trying to buy Norfolk Southern in a deal now valued around $71.5 billion, down from an earlier $85 billion price tag as terms have moved with Union Pacific's stock. It would create the first coast-to-coast U.S. railroad. The day before earnings, Union Pacific settled with Canadian National Railway, a major opponent that had been pushing regulators to demand more information. CN will drop its opposition in exchange for expanded Midwest access and a stake in two jointly owned terminal railroads. Vena called it proof the firm is "ready to move forward in the regulatory process." The deal still isn't approved, though. The Surface Transportation Board (STB) paused its review in May and just this week ordered Union Pacific to make employee-impact data public. Rivals BNSF and Canadian Pacific Kansas City are still lobbying against it, and some shippers and state attorneys general remain opposed. The companies still expect to close the deal in the first half of 2027. That raises a real question. Is this merger clearing its last real hurdles, or did the CN settlement just remove one opponent out of several? The core business (Union Pacific's actual railroad operations) is performing well on its own, guidance beat and rose, and pricing power held up despite surging fuel costs. The CN settlement removes a credible opponent and comes with political tailwinds too: Trump has publicly backed the merger and replaced a regulator who could have opposed it. Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) and Norfolk Southern say the deal would save shippers $3.5 billion a year and remove 2.1 million trucks from the road. Wall Street responded fast: Baird, RBC, and JPMorgan all raised price targets this week, with RBC citing the CN deal directly as strengthening the merger's case. READ NEXT: 33 Stocks That Should Double in 3 Years and Cathie Wood 2026 Portfolio: 10 Best Stocks to Buy. BNSF and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP), both larger than CN, are still actively opposed, and shippers and state attorneys general haven't backed down. The STB's review remains paused, and forcing public disclosure of employee data suggests regulators aren't rubber-stamping this. Notably, JPMorgan raised its price target but kept a neutral rating, a sign at least one major bank isn't calling this done yet. Fuel costs are also a real, ongoing drag tied to a war with no clean resolution in sight. Insider Monkey's hedge fund database shows funds trimming ahead of this quarter. Overall, 96 funds were holding Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE:UNP) at the end of Q1 2026, down from 106, with dollar value held falling from $7.5 billion to $5.7 billion. That reflects sentiment before this week's beat and the CN settlement, both of which have since turned more positive. In contract, there were only 45 hedge funds with bullish Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) positions at the end of Q1. Hedge funds clearly think UNP is a better stock to buy than CP. Union Pacific had a genuinely strong quarter, and the CN settlement is a real step toward its biggest deal ever. However, one opponent down isn't the same as approved. BNSF, Canadian Pacific Kansas City, wary shippers, and a regulator still asking hard questions remain in the picture. The next real test isn't a nostalgia tour; it's whether the Surface Transportation Board restarts its review. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of UNP as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than UNP and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock. READ NEXT: Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)'s Profit Fell by a Third on the Iran War. Is the Selloff a Buying Opportunity? and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) Stock Just Lost $1 Trillion in a Month. Is the Selloff a Buying Opportunity or a Warning? Disclosure: None.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-30Canadian Pacific Kansas City Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
MarketBeat
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Interested in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited? Here are five stocks we like better. Strong Q2 performance: Canadian Pacific Kansas City reported 4% volume growth, 13% revenue growth and core adjusted EPS of $1.27, up 13% year over year. Grain and automotive led results, while coal remained a significant weakness. Growth outlook remains positive: Management expects mid-single-digit volume growth in 2026, continued second-half acceleration and $1.4 billion–$1.5 billion in merger synergies by year-end. CPKC said its network has sufficient capacity to support expansion without materially increasing capital spending. Cash returns and industry concerns: Adjusted free cash flow rose 25% to $1.3 billion through the first half, while the company returned $2.4 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. CEO Keith Creel criticized proposed further railroad consolidation, warning it could reduce shipper choices. Capri's Turnaround Is Taking Shape, But Is the Stock a Buy Yet? Canadian Pacific Kansas City (NYSE:CP) reported second-quarter 2026 results marked by higher freight volumes, revenue growth and double-digit adjusted earnings growth, supported by grain, automotive and cross-border traffic gains across its Canada-U.S.-Mexico network. President and Chief Executive Officer Keith Creel said the railroad recorded 4% volume growth, 13% revenue growth, a 61.6% core adjusted operating ratio and core adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.27, up 13% from a year earlier. He said the company established quarterly volume records in grain, energy, chemicals, plastics and automotive. → This Tiny AI Supplier Could Be More Important Than the Chipmakers Copa Holdings May Be the Airline Stock Built to Break Out “With each passing quarter, that vision is becoming a reality,” Creel said of the combination of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern, which created the only single-line rail network serving Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Nadeem Velani said reported operating ratio was 64.6%, while the core adjusted operating ratio increased 90 basis points year over year to 61.6%. Reported diluted EPS was $1.15, and core adjusted diluted EPS was $1.27. → Refiner Stocks Are Near Record Highs—Can Iran-Driven Margins Keep Them There? 5 High-Yield Stocks With Analyst Support and Room to Run Velani cited higher stock-bas…Read full documentShow less
Interested in Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited? Here are five stocks we like better. Strong Q2 performance: Canadian Pacific Kansas City reported 4% volume growth, 13% revenue growth and core adjusted EPS of $1.27, up 13% year over year. Grain and automotive led results, while coal remained a significant weakness. Growth outlook remains positive: Management expects mid-single-digit volume growth in 2026, continued second-half acceleration and $1.4 billion–$1.5 billion in merger synergies by year-end. CPKC said its network has sufficient capacity to support expansion without materially increasing capital spending. Cash returns and industry concerns: Adjusted free cash flow rose 25% to $1.3 billion through the first half, while the company returned $2.4 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. CEO Keith Creel criticized proposed further railroad consolidation, warning it could reduce shipper choices. Capri's Turnaround Is Taking Shape, But Is the Stock a Buy Yet? Canadian Pacific Kansas City (NYSE:CP) reported second-quarter 2026 results marked by higher freight volumes, revenue growth and double-digit adjusted earnings growth, supported by grain, automotive and cross-border traffic gains across its Canada-U.S.-Mexico network. President and Chief Executive Officer Keith Creel said the railroad recorded 4% volume growth, 13% revenue growth, a 61.6% core adjusted operating ratio and core adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.27, up 13% from a year earlier. He said the company established quarterly volume records in grain, energy, chemicals, plastics and automotive. → This Tiny AI Supplier Could Be More Important Than the Chipmakers Copa Holdings May Be the Airline Stock Built to Break Out “With each passing quarter, that vision is becoming a reality,” Creel said of the combination of Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern, which created the only single-line rail network serving Canada, the U.S. and Mexico. Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Nadeem Velani said reported operating ratio was 64.6%, while the core adjusted operating ratio increased 90 basis points year over year to 61.6%. Reported diluted EPS was $1.15, and core adjusted diluted EPS was $1.27. → Refiner Stocks Are Near Record Highs—Can Iran-Driven Margins Keep Them There? 5 High-Yield Stocks With Analyst Support and Room to Run Velani cited higher stock-based compensation, wage inflation, volume-related costs and casualty costs as expense pressures during the quarter. Fuel expense rose 49% from a year earlier, primarily reflecting a 52% increase in on-highway diesel prices and higher volume, partly offset by a 4% improvement in fuel efficiency. Equipment rents declined 6% on improved asset utilization, network velocity and cycle times. Velani said higher casualty costs and stock-based compensation represented a 4% impact to EPS and a roughly 120-basis-point headwind to operating ratio, while year-over-year fuel-price changes created a 130-basis-point operating-ratio headwind. → Innovative ETF Strategies That Are Paying Off This Summer Year-to-date operating cash flow increased 8%, while adjusted free cash flow rose 25% to $1.3 billion. Capital expenditures totaled $1.4 billion through the first half, and CPKC maintained its full-year capital spending target of $2.65 billion, down 15% from the prior year. The company returned $2.4 billion to shareholders in the first half through share repurchases and dividends. Velani said CPKC expects a full-year core adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 24.75%. He also said the company expects sequential improvement in revenue per ton-mile and greater volume acceleration in the second half, with lower casualty costs than in the first half potentially supporting earnings and operating-ratio improvement. Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer John Brooks said second-quarter freight revenue excluding fuel reached a quarterly record, while gross ton-miles reached an all-time high. Revenue per ton-mile rose 9%, aided by higher fuel surcharge revenue, pricing strength and moderating mix headwinds. On an FX-adjusted basis, grain revenue rose 24% on 19% volume growth, with Canadian grain volumes up 24% and U.S. grain volumes up 14%. Brooks attributed the increase to a record harvest, demand into Mexico and Pacific Northwest markets. He said the company expects supply and demand to remain solid through the third quarter, while its fourth-quarter grain outlook uses a three- to five-year average assumption. Potash revenue increased 10% despite a 2% volume decline tied to port maintenance and lower mine production. Coal revenue fell 18% as volume declined 29%, reflecting production challenges at customer mines. Brooks said coal is expected to remain a headwind in the second half, though shipment levels have improved. Energy, Chemicals and Plastics revenue increased 8% on 6% volume growth, led by higher crude shipments. Metals, Minerals and Consumer Products revenue rose 16% on 7% volume growth, helped by stronger steel and aggregate traffic. Automotive revenue increased 19% on 8% volume growth, reaching another quarterly record on new business wins and longer-haul traffic. Intermodal revenue rose 11% on flat total volumes. Domestic intermodal volume increased 3%, while international volume declined 2% against strong prior-year comparisons. Brooks said the Southeast Mexico Express service with CSX saw volumes increase more than 30% from the first quarter. He said both the Southeast Mexico Express and Mexico Midwest Express services are positioned to benefit from truck-to-rail conversion opportunities associated with higher fuel prices, tighter regulatory enforcement and reduced trucking capacity. Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Mark Redd said CPKC set second-quarter records for train speed, dwell, locomotive productivity and fuel efficiency. He said integration of the company’s U.S. and Canadian operating systems has improved real-time network visibility and coordination. Redd said personal injury frequency and train accidents both increased from a year earlier, though the company reported an FRA train accident rate of 1.0 and personal injury frequency of 0.96. He said CPKC is taking action to address the trends. The railroad has received all 70 Wabtec locomotives scheduled for delivery in 2026 and expects to begin receiving Progress Rail locomotives in the second half. Rail and tie replacement work is progressing ahead of schedule in Western Canada, Redd said, with installation productivity up 18% for rail and 59% for ties year over year. Management said capacity should not constrain growth. Creel said the company made significant investments required under its merger application and is positioned for expansion with relatively low incremental costs, principally additional headcount. Velani said CPKC can accommodate anticipated growth within a capital spending envelope of roughly CAD 2.6 billion to CAD 2.7 billion. Brooks said CPKC expects mid-single-digit volume growth for 2026 and sees a path toward $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion in merger synergies by year-end. He said land-bridge business between Canada and Mexico is expected to reach approximately $600 million this year, with 60% to 65% tied to Western Canada and Mexico, and management sees a longer-term path toward $1 billion. During the question-and-answer session, Creel strongly criticized proposed railroad consolidation involving Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, as well as agreements between Union Pacific and Canadian National. He said CPKC believes its own merger added transportation options without removing existing competitive choices, while arguing that further consolidation could reduce options for shippers. Creel said CPKC would not “sit still” if further consolidation occurs and could pursue commercial arrangements with other railroads. However, he said the company’s preferred outcome would be no additional merger activity. He added that CPKC is focused on executing its growth plan amid what management characterized as improving freight demand conditions entering the second half of 2026. Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) is a North American Class I freight railroad formed through the combination of Canadian Pacific Railway and Kansas City Southern. The merged company operates an integrated rail network that spans Canada, the United States and Mexico, providing a single-line rail connection across all three countries. This transborder footprint is intended to streamline cross-border freight flows and provide shippers with direct rail access from Canadian and U.S. production centers to Mexican markets and ports. CPKC's core business is freight transportation and related logistics services. This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to [email protected]. The article "Canadian Pacific Kansas City Q2 Earnings Call Highlights" was originally published by MarketBeat. View MarketBeat's top stocks for July 2026.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-30Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (CP) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and ...
GuruFocus.com
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (CP) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and ...
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Revenue: Q2 record freight revenues (excluding fuel) up 13% year-over-year; all-time record GTMs up 4%. Operating Ratio (OR): Core adjusted operating ratio of 61.6%, up 90 basis points year-over-year. Earnings Per Share (EPS): Core adjusted diluted EPS of $1.27, up 13% year-over-year. Volume Growth: Volume growth of 4% in the quarter; record volumes in grain, energy, chemicals, plastics, and automotive. Bulk Revenue (Grain): Record quarter with revenue up 24% on 19% volume growth. Bulk Revenue (Potash): Revenue up 10% on a 2% decline in volume. Bulk Revenue (Coal): Revenue declined 18% on a 29% reduction in volumes. Merchandise Revenue (Energy, Chemicals & Plastics): Revenue increased 8% on 6% volume growth. Merchandise Revenue (Forest Products): Revenue increased 2% on 2% lower volumes. Merchandise Revenue (Metals, Minerals & Consumer Products): Revenue increased 16% on 7% volume growth. Automotive Revenue: Record quarter with revenue up 19% on 8% volume growth. Intermodal Revenue: Revenue increased 11% on flat volumes. Core Adjusted Comp & Benefits Expense: $702 million, driven by higher stock-based compensation, wage inflation, and volume-related costs. Fuel Expense: Up 49% year-over-year, driven by a 52% increase in on-highway diesel price and higher volume. Core Adjusted PSNO Expense: $585 million, driven by higher casualty costs and inflation. Net Interest Expense: $237 million ($231 million excluding purchase accounting). Income Tax Expense: $335 million ($370 million adjusted for purchase accounting and significant items). Year-to-Date Net Cash from Operations: Up 8%, driven by higher operating income. Year-to-Date Capital Expenditures: $1.4 billion; full-year CapEx guidance of $2.65 billion (15% reduction year-over-year). Year-to-Date Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $1.3 billion, up 25% year-over-year. Shareholder Returns: $2.4 billion returned through share repurchases and dividends in the first half of the year. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 10 Warning Signs with CP. Is CP fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: July 29, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Record volume growth of 4% and revenue growth of 13% in Q2 2026. Established new records in key operating metrics like train velocity and terminal fluidi…Read full documentShow less
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Revenue: Q2 record freight revenues (excluding fuel) up 13% year-over-year; all-time record GTMs up 4%. Operating Ratio (OR): Core adjusted operating ratio of 61.6%, up 90 basis points year-over-year. Earnings Per Share (EPS): Core adjusted diluted EPS of $1.27, up 13% year-over-year. Volume Growth: Volume growth of 4% in the quarter; record volumes in grain, energy, chemicals, plastics, and automotive. Bulk Revenue (Grain): Record quarter with revenue up 24% on 19% volume growth. Bulk Revenue (Potash): Revenue up 10% on a 2% decline in volume. Bulk Revenue (Coal): Revenue declined 18% on a 29% reduction in volumes. Merchandise Revenue (Energy, Chemicals & Plastics): Revenue increased 8% on 6% volume growth. Merchandise Revenue (Forest Products): Revenue increased 2% on 2% lower volumes. Merchandise Revenue (Metals, Minerals & Consumer Products): Revenue increased 16% on 7% volume growth. Automotive Revenue: Record quarter with revenue up 19% on 8% volume growth. Intermodal Revenue: Revenue increased 11% on flat volumes. Core Adjusted Comp & Benefits Expense: $702 million, driven by higher stock-based compensation, wage inflation, and volume-related costs. Fuel Expense: Up 49% year-over-year, driven by a 52% increase in on-highway diesel price and higher volume. Core Adjusted PSNO Expense: $585 million, driven by higher casualty costs and inflation. Net Interest Expense: $237 million ($231 million excluding purchase accounting). Income Tax Expense: $335 million ($370 million adjusted for purchase accounting and significant items). Year-to-Date Net Cash from Operations: Up 8%, driven by higher operating income. Year-to-Date Capital Expenditures: $1.4 billion; full-year CapEx guidance of $2.65 billion (15% reduction year-over-year). Year-to-Date Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $1.3 billion, up 25% year-over-year. Shareholder Returns: $2.4 billion returned through share repurchases and dividends in the first half of the year. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 10 Warning Signs with CP. Is CP fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: July 29, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. Record volume growth of 4% and revenue growth of 13% in Q2 2026. Established new records in key operating metrics like train velocity and terminal fluidity. Strong growth in grain, energy, chemicals, plastics, and automotive sectors. Continued success of commercial initiatives like Southeast Mexico Express and Mexico Midwest Express. Robust commercial pipeline with potential for mid-single-digit volume growth in 2026. Coal revenue declined 18% due to production challenges at customer mines. Safety metrics worsened with increases in personal injury frequency and train accidents. Higher casualty costs and stock-based compensation impacted EPS by $0.04. Fuel expense increased 49% year-over-year due to higher diesel prices. Uncertainty from potential rail consolidation and competitive pressures from CN and UP deals. Here are the key highlights from the Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (NYSE:CP) Q2 2026 earnings call. Q: How do you view the competitive landscape following the recent agreements between CN and Union Pacific, specifically regarding the EJ&E line and access to Mexico? A: (Keith Creel, President & CEO) I view the EJ&E acquisition as a significant operational advantage for CN, providing a release valve around Chicago. However, I question the long-term value of what CN gave up versus what they got. The access to Mexico via Memphis is still a three-line move, operationally controlled by UP, and still faces the bottleneck at Eagle Pass. We are not afraid of competition. Our single-line network, particularly the land bridge between Western Canada and Mexico, provides a unique product that cannot be replicated. The lion's share of our cross-border business originates in Western Canada, which is a significant disadvantage for CN's route models that must go east before heading south. Q: Can you frame the opportunity for idiosyncratic commercial synergies going into 2027? And can you elaborate on the notable expense headwinds in the quarter? A: (John Brooks, CMO) We see a good run rate to achieve $1.4-$1.5 billion in synergies by year-end, a step-up of over $300 million. Growth is coming from all lines of business, but we are still in the early innings for grain and intermodal. We are challenging the team to push for a second train pair on the MMX service and see further opportunities in automotive contracts. (Nadeem Velani, CFO) The notable headwinds were casualty costs and stock-based compensation, which together represented a $0.05 headwind to EPS and about 150 basis points to the operating ratio. Without these, the OR would have been closer to 60%. Q: How do you think about aligning resources with the growth profile John is laying out over the next few years? A: (Mark Redd, COO) We are constantly planning for John's demand. We have new labor agreements, like the one south of Eastern Oklahoma to Laredo, which will provide synergies and headcount that can be redeployed for future growth. We also have opportunities to increase train lengths. We communicate constantly with John, and since new business doesn't appear overnight, we have plenty of time to plan and add resources as needed. Q: Can you provide commentary on yields, particularly core renewals and the impact of length of haul? A: (John Brooks, CMO) We are still seeing a good length-of-haul enhancement, about 3% year-over-year, with more opportunities from land bridge business. On pricing, we have been at the higher end of our 3% to 4% guidance and expect that to potentially accelerate given the improving trucking environment. Renewals came in strong, with mix being a 1-2 point headwind, with the balance of the yield improvement driven by fuel and FX. Q: Do you believe the concessions extracted by CN put the UP-CN merger on a better competitive platform? A: (Keith Creel, President & CEO) No, I don't think it changes the math. It's a few steps in a positive direction, but the fundamental problems remain. The merger still creates significant monopolistic market concentration and operational risk, especially with the EJ&E now in play. The "enhanced competition" is temporary and not inclusive. The STB's mandate is to enhance competition, and this deal still reduces options for shippers. Our merger was additive, creating new single-line options. This merger is a substitution that takes options away. Q: Does the CN-UP deal prompt you to look for your own deals with BNSF or CSX? A: (Keith Creel, President & CEO) We have a menu of options and can create compelling products with partners like BNSF and CSX outside of a merger. The best outcome is no merger at all, which would allow UP and CN to create value independently. In that scenario, we would also pursue our own commercial agreements. We have never been closer to BNSF and CSX, and we are developing market intelligence and route options to present compelling value propositions. We will not sit still if a merger environment is forced upon us. Q: How are you thinking about network capacity as the upcycle comes? A: (Keith Creel, President & CEO) We are very well positioned. Our merger application included significant investments to prepare for growth, and we have built ahead. We have ample locomotive and track capacity. The only thing we need to flex up is incremental headcount. (Mark Redd, COO) We have unlocked capacity through new agreements in Shreveport, Louisiana, and the connection with CSX. We have also invested $75 million in Mexico on top of the new bridge. Capacity will not be an issue. Q: Do you feel we are at an inflection point where synergy opportunities and a more supportive macro will lead to a meaningful acceleration in earnings growth? A: (John Brooks, CMO) It's undeniable that the freight environment since April 2023 has been challenging, yet we have still stacked up impressive growth. Now, with a potential tailwind from the macro environment and us still in the mid-innings of product development, the outlook is very compelling. (Nadeem Velani, CFO) The operating leverage story is just beginning. We have reduced headcount by 500 while volumes are up 3-4% and accelerating. We can accommodate this growth with our current capital plan, which will generate significant free cash flow and accelerate earnings. Q: Do you feel your customers are distracted by the ongoing industry developments like the UP-CN merger? A: (Keith Creel, President & CEO) Yes, it requires a lot of attention. Customers want to protect competitive options and optionality. They are not looking for less competition. (John Brooks, CMO) Since COVID, customers are looking for more options to increase supply chain resiliency. That's why we garnered so much support for our merger. The current proposals are a distraction, and customers are questioning whether they will truly get enhanced competition. Q: What is your outlook for coal and refined products to Mexico? A: (John Brooks, CMO) Q2 was the worst for coal. We expect it to get progressively better through Q3 and Q4 as our customer's mine production improves. For refined fuels to Mexico, the business has been nearly nonexistent For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-30Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
Zacks
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
For the quarter ended June 2026, Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) reported revenue of $3.01 billion, up 12.5% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.92, compared to $0.81 in the year-ago quarter. The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.91 billion, representing a surprise of +3.26%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +3.37%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.89. While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance. As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately. Here is how Canadian Pacific Kansas City performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: Core adjusted operating ratio: 61.6% compared to the 61.6% average estimate based on four analysts. Carloads - Total: 1.15 million compared to the 1.15 million average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Automotive: 64.6 thousand versus the three-analyst average estimate of 64.07 thousand. Revenue ton miles (RTMs) - Total: 57.58 billion versus 57.65 billion estimated by three analysts on average. Revenue ton-miles (RTMs) - Intermodal: 10.3 billion compared to the 10.27 billion average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Grain: 168 thousand compared to the 168.96 thousand average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Coal: 94.4 thousand versus the three-analyst average estimate of 93.33 thousand. Carloads - Potash: 45.7 thousand compared to the 51.75 thousand average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Fertilizers and sulphur: 16.1 thousand versus 16.25 thousand estimated by three analysts on average. Carloads - Forest products: 31.1 thousand compared to the 30.84 thousand average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Energy, chemicals and plastics: 140.4 thousand compared to the 134.12 thousand average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Metals, minerals and consumer products: 134.1 thousand versus 132.48 thousand estimated by three analysts on average. View all Key Com…Read full documentShow less
For the quarter ended June 2026, Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) reported revenue of $3.01 billion, up 12.5% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.92, compared to $0.81 in the year-ago quarter. The reported revenue compares to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.91 billion, representing a surprise of +3.26%. The company delivered an EPS surprise of +3.37%, with the consensus EPS estimate being $0.89. While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street expectations to determine their next course of action, some key metrics always provide a better insight into a company's underlying performance. As these metrics influence top- and bottom-line performance, comparing them to the year-ago numbers and what analysts estimated helps investors project a stock's price performance more accurately. Here is how Canadian Pacific Kansas City performed in the just reported quarter in terms of the metrics most widely monitored and projected by Wall Street analysts: Core adjusted operating ratio: 61.6% compared to the 61.6% average estimate based on four analysts. Carloads - Total: 1.15 million compared to the 1.15 million average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Automotive: 64.6 thousand versus the three-analyst average estimate of 64.07 thousand. Revenue ton miles (RTMs) - Total: 57.58 billion versus 57.65 billion estimated by three analysts on average. Revenue ton-miles (RTMs) - Intermodal: 10.3 billion compared to the 10.27 billion average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Grain: 168 thousand compared to the 168.96 thousand average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Coal: 94.4 thousand versus the three-analyst average estimate of 93.33 thousand. Carloads - Potash: 45.7 thousand compared to the 51.75 thousand average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Fertilizers and sulphur: 16.1 thousand versus 16.25 thousand estimated by three analysts on average. Carloads - Forest products: 31.1 thousand compared to the 30.84 thousand average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Energy, chemicals and plastics: 140.4 thousand compared to the 134.12 thousand average estimate based on three analysts. Carloads - Metals, minerals and consumer products: 134.1 thousand versus 132.48 thousand estimated by three analysts on average. View all Key Company Metrics for Canadian Pacific Kansas City here>>> Shares of Canadian Pacific Kansas City have returned +5.8% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.9% change. The stock currently has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), indicating that it could underperform the broader market in the near term. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-29Canadian Pacific Kansas City: Q2 Earnings Snapshot
Associated Press
Canadian Pacific Kansas City: Q2 Earnings Snapshot
CALGARY, Alberta (AP) — CALGARY, Alberta (AP) — Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) on Wednesday reported second-quarter net income of $739.7 million. The Calgary, Alberta-based company said it had net income of 83 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, were 92 cents per share. The results topped Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 89 cents per share. The railroad posted revenue of $3.01 billion in the period, also topping Street forecasts. Six analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $2.91 billion. _____ This story was generated by Automated Insights (http://automatedinsights.com/ap) using data from Zacks Investment Research. Access a Zacks stock report on CP at https://www.zacks.com/ap/CP
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-29CPKC reports strong Q2 results, poised for accelerated growth in second half of 2026
CNW Group
CPKC reports strong Q2 results, poised for accelerated growth in second half of 2026
CALGARY, AB, July 29, 2026 /CNW/ -- Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSX: CP) (NYSE: CP) (CPKC) today announced its second-quarter results, including revenues of $4.2 billion, diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.15 and core adjusted diluted EPS1 of $1.27. "This unrivalled three-nation network and CPKC's exceptional team of railroaders delivered another quarter of strong revenue and earnings growth," said Keith Creel, CPKC President and Chief Executive Officer. "Our disciplined execution of Precision Scheduled Railroading produced excellent operating performance in the quarter. We are well-positioned to accelerate volume and earnings growth in the second half of 2026." Second-quarter 2026 results Revenues increased by 13 percent to $4.2 billion from $3.7 billion in Q2 2025 Reported operating ratio (OR) increased by 90 basis points to 64.6 percent from 63.7 percent in Q2 2025 Core adjusted OR1 increased 90 basis points to 61.6 percent from 60.7 percent in Q2 2025 Reported diluted EPS decreased 14 percent to $1.15 from $1.33 in Q2 2025 Core adjusted diluted EPS1 increased 13 percent to $1.27 from $1.12 in Q2 2025 Volumes, as measured in revenue ton-miles, increased 4 percent "Successful implementation of our North American strategy and synergy realization, improving freight fundamentals, and disciplined cost control position CPKC to continue delivering differentiated earnings growth and value creation over the long term," Creel added. "We remain confident in our ability to continue creating unique long-term value for our customers, communities and shareholders, as we safely and efficiently serve the North American economy." Conference Call DetailsCPKC will discuss its results with the financial community in a conference call beginning at 4:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. MT) on July 29, 2026. Conference Call AccessCanada and U.S.: 800-579-2543International: 785-424-1789*Conference ID: CPKCQ226 Callers should dial in 10 minutes prior to the call. Webcast We encourage you to access the webcast and presentation material in the Investors section of CPKC's website at investor.cpkcr.com. A replay of the second-quarter conference call will be available through August 5, 2026, at 800-695-2185 (Canada/U.S.) or 402-530-9028 (International). Forward-looking informationThis news release contains certain forward-looking information and forward-looking statements (collectively, "forwa…Read full documentShow less
CALGARY, AB, July 29, 2026 /CNW/ -- Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSX: CP) (NYSE: CP) (CPKC) today announced its second-quarter results, including revenues of $4.2 billion, diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.15 and core adjusted diluted EPS1 of $1.27. "This unrivalled three-nation network and CPKC's exceptional team of railroaders delivered another quarter of strong revenue and earnings growth," said Keith Creel, CPKC President and Chief Executive Officer. "Our disciplined execution of Precision Scheduled Railroading produced excellent operating performance in the quarter. We are well-positioned to accelerate volume and earnings growth in the second half of 2026." Second-quarter 2026 results Revenues increased by 13 percent to $4.2 billion from $3.7 billion in Q2 2025 Reported operating ratio (OR) increased by 90 basis points to 64.6 percent from 63.7 percent in Q2 2025 Core adjusted OR1 increased 90 basis points to 61.6 percent from 60.7 percent in Q2 2025 Reported diluted EPS decreased 14 percent to $1.15 from $1.33 in Q2 2025 Core adjusted diluted EPS1 increased 13 percent to $1.27 from $1.12 in Q2 2025 Volumes, as measured in revenue ton-miles, increased 4 percent "Successful implementation of our North American strategy and synergy realization, improving freight fundamentals, and disciplined cost control position CPKC to continue delivering differentiated earnings growth and value creation over the long term," Creel added. "We remain confident in our ability to continue creating unique long-term value for our customers, communities and shareholders, as we safely and efficiently serve the North American economy." Conference Call DetailsCPKC will discuss its results with the financial community in a conference call beginning at 4:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. MT) on July 29, 2026. Conference Call AccessCanada and U.S.: 800-579-2543International: 785-424-1789*Conference ID: CPKCQ226 Callers should dial in 10 minutes prior to the call. Webcast We encourage you to access the webcast and presentation material in the Investors section of CPKC's website at investor.cpkcr.com. A replay of the second-quarter conference call will be available through August 5, 2026, at 800-695-2185 (Canada/U.S.) or 402-530-9028 (International). Forward-looking informationThis news release contains certain forward-looking information and forward-looking statements (collectively, "forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable securities laws in both the U.S. and Canada. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements concerning expectations, beliefs, plans, goals, objectives, assumptions and statements about possible future events, conditions, and results of operations or performance. Forward-looking statements may contain statements with words or headings such as "financial expectations", "key assumptions", "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "plan", "will", "outlook", "guidance", "should" or similar words suggesting future outcomes. This news release contains forward-looking statements relating, but not limited, to statements concerning our ability to accelerate volume and differentiated earnings growth in the second half of 2026, value creation for our customers, communities and shareholders, strategic initiatives and investments, the success of our business, the realization of anticipated benefits and synergies of the CP-KCS combination, and the opportunities arising therefrom, our operations, priorities and plans, anticipated financial and operational performance, business prospects and demand for our services and growth opportunities. The forward-looking statements contained in this news release are based on current expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions, having regard to CPKC's experience and its perception of historical trends, and include, but are not limited to, expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions relating to: changes in business strategies, North American and global economic growth and conditions; commodity demand growth; sustainable industrial and agricultural production; commodity prices and interest rates; foreign exchange rates; core adjusted effective tax rates; performance of our assets and equipment; sufficiency of our budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out our business plan; geopolitical conditions, applicable laws, regulations and government policies, including, without limitation, those relating to regulation of rates, tariffs, import/export, trade, taxes, wages, labour and immigration; the availability and cost of labour, services and infrastructure; labour disruptions; the satisfaction by third parties of their obligations to CPKC; and carbon markets, evolving sustainability strategies, and scientific or technological developments. Although CPKC believes the expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions reflected in the forward-looking statements presented herein are reasonable as of the date hereof, there can be no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Current conditions, economic and otherwise, render assumptions, although reasonable when made, subject to greater uncertainty. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements as actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve numerous inherent risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the following factors: changes in business strategies and strategic opportunities; general Canadian, U.S., Mexican and global social, economic, political, credit and business conditions; risks associated with agricultural production such as weather conditions and insect populations; the availability and price of energy commodities; the effects of competition and pricing pressures, including competition from other rail carriers, trucking companies and maritime shippers in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico; North American and global economic growth and conditions; industry capacity; shifts in market demand; changes in commodity prices and commodity demand; uncertainty surrounding timing and volumes of commodities being shipped by CPKC; inflation; geopolitical instability; changes in laws, regulations and government policies, including, without limitation, those relating to regulation of rates, tariffs, import/export, trade, wages, labour and immigration; changes in taxes and tax rates; potential increases in maintenance and operating costs; changes in fuel prices; disruption in fuel supplies; uncertainties of investigations, proceedings or other types of claims and litigation; compliance with environmental regulations; labour disputes; changes in labour costs and labour difficulties; risks and liabilities arising from derailments; transportation of dangerous goods; timing of completion of capital and maintenance projects; sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out business plans; services and infrastructure; the satisfaction by third parties of their obligations; currency and interest rate fluctuations; exchange rates; effects of changes in market conditions and discount rates on the financial position of pension plans and investments; trade restrictions, including the imposition of any tariffs, or other changes to international trade arrangements; the effects of current and future multinational trade agreements on or other developments affecting the level of trade among Canada, the U.S. and Mexico; climate change and the market and regulatory responses to climate change; anticipated in-service dates; success of hedging activities; operational performance and reliability; customer, regulatory and other stakeholder approvals and support; regulatory and legislative decisions and actions; the adverse impact of any termination or revocation by the Mexican government of Kansas City Southern de México, S.A. de C.V.'s concession; public opinion; various events that could disrupt operations, including severe weather, such as droughts, floods, avalanches, volcanism and earthquakes, and cybersecurity attacks, as well as security threats and governmental response to them, and technological changes; acts of terrorism, war or other acts of violence or crime or risk of such activities; insurance coverage limitations; material adverse changes in economic and industry conditions; the outbreak of a pandemic or contagious disease and the resulting effects on economic conditions; the demand environment for logistics requirements and energy prices, restrictions imposed by public health authorities or governments; fiscal and monetary policy responses by governments and financial institutions; disruptions to global supply chains; the realization of anticipated benefits and synergies of the CP-KCS transaction and the timing thereof; the satisfaction of the conditions imposed by the U.S. Surface Transportation Board in its March 15, 2023 decision; the successful integration of KCS into CPKC; the focus of management time and attention on the CP-KCS integration and other disruptions arising from the CP-KCS integration; estimated future dividends; financial strength and flexibility; debt and equity market conditions, including the ability to access capital markets on favourable terms or at all; cost of debt and equity capital; improvement in data collection and measuring systems; industry-driven changes to methodologies; and the ability of the management of CPKC to execute key priorities, including those in connection with the CP-KCS transaction. The foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. These and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements contained in this news release are detailed from time to time in reports filed by CPKC with securities regulators in Canada and the United States, which can be accessed on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca) and EDGAR (www.sec.gov). Reference should be made to "Part I - Item 1A – Risk Factors" and "Part II - Item 7 – Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Forward-Looking Statements" in CPKC's annual report on Form 10-K and "Part II – Item 1A – Risk Factors" and "Part I – Item 2 – Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Forward-Looking Statements" in CPKC's interim reports on Form 10-Q. The forward-looking statements contained in this news release are made as of the date hereof. Except as required by law, CPKC undertakes no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statements, or the foregoing assumptions and risks affecting such forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. About CPKCWith its global headquarters in Calgary, Alta., Canada, CPKC is the first and only single-line transnational railway linking Canada, the United States and México, with unrivaled access to major ports from Vancouver to Atlantic Canada to the Gulf Coast to Lázaro Cárdenas, México. Stretching approximately 20,000 route miles and employing approximately 20,000 railroaders, CPKC provides North American customers unparalleled rail service and network reach to key markets across the continent. CPKC is growing with its customers, offering a suite of freight transportation services, logistics solutions and supply chain expertise. Visit cpkcr.com to learn more about the rail advantages of CPKC. CP-IR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS INTERIM CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME(unaudited) INTERIM CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME(unaudited) INTERIM CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS AS AT(unaudited) INTERIM CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CASH FLOWS(unaudited) INTERIM CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF CHANGES IN EQUITY(unaudited) NOTES TO INTERIM CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTSJune 30, 2026(unaudited) 1 Description of business and basis of presentation Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited ("CPKC" or the "Company") owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway spanning Canada, the United States ("U.S."), and Mexico. CPKC provides rail and intermodal transportation services over a network of approximately 20,000 miles, serving principal business centres across Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. The Company transports bulk commodities, merchandise freight, and intermodal traffic. CPKC's Common Shares ("Common Shares") trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") and New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "CP". These unaudited interim consolidated financial statements ("Interim Consolidated Financial Statements") have been prepared in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S. ("GAAP"). They do not include all of the information required for a complete set of annual financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP and should be read in conjunction with the Company's audited consolidated financial statements as at and for the year ended December 31, 2025 ("last annual consolidated financial statements"). Selected explanatory notes are included to explain events and transactions that are significant to an understanding of the changes in the Company's financial position and results of operations since the last annual consolidated financial statements. These Interim Consolidated Financial Statements have been prepared using the same significant accounting policies used in the last annual consolidated financial statements, except for the adoption of new accounting standards (see Note 2). Amounts are stated in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted. The Company's operations and income for interim periods can be affected by seasonal fluctuations such as changes in customer demand and weather conditions, and may not be indicative of annual results. Operating segment The Company only has one operating segment: rail transportation. The Company's measure of segment profit is reported on the Interim Consolidated Statements of Income as "Net income attributable to controlling shareholders". CPKC's significant segment expenses are consistent with the expenses presented on the Interim Consolidated Statements of Income. 2 Accounting changes Accounting Standards Update ("ASU") 2025-05 Financial Instruments - Credit Losses (Topic 326): Measurement of Credit Losses for Accounts Receivable and Contract Assets On January 1, 2026, the Company prospectively adopted ASU 2025-05, which simplifies estimating credit losses on current accounts receivable and current contract assets. Under the new guidance, CPKC elected to adopt a practical expedient allowing the Company to assume that conditions existing as of the balance sheet date will remain unchanged over the remaining life of the asset when developing reasonable and supportable forecasts for estimating expected credit losses. Adoption of ASU 2025-05 did not have a material impact on the Company's Interim Consolidated Financial Statements. Other accounting standards that became effective during the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, did not have a material impact on the Company's Interim Consolidated Financial Statements. Recently issued accounting pronouncements are not expected to have a material impact on the Company's financial position or results of operations upon adoption. 3 Revenues The following table presents disaggregated information about the Company's revenues from contracts with customers by major source: 4 Gain on sale of equity investment On April 1, 2025, CPKC sold its 50% equity method investment in the Panama Canal Railway Company to APM Terminals Panama Rail LP ("APM Terminals"), a subsidiary of A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, for gross proceeds of U.S. $350 million. After finalizing purchase price adjustments for cash acquired and debt and net working capital assumed by APM Terminals, the Company received cash consideration of U.S. $344 million ($493 million) and recognized a pre-tax gain of U.S. $232 million ($333 million) in "Gain on sale of equity investment". The after-tax gain was U.S. $196 million ($282 million). 5 Income taxes The effective income tax rate including discrete items for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 was 24.65% and 24.63%, respectively, compared to 22.45% and 23.26%, respectively for the same periods in 2025. For the three months ended June 30, 2026, the effective income tax rate was 24.75%, excluding the discrete items of amortization of the fair value adjustments associated with purchase accounting of $94 million and acquisition-related costs of $27 million, both related to the Kansas City Southern ("KCS") acquisition, and advisory costs related to the analysis and advocacy in connection with the U.S. Surface Transportation Board's (the "STB") review of the proposed merger between Union Pacific Corporation ("UP") and Norfolk Southern Corporation ("NS") of $14 million. For the three months ended June 30, 2025, the effective income tax rate was 24.50%, excluding the discrete items of a gain on sale of an equity investment of $333 million, amortization of the fair value adjustments associated with purchase accounting of $96 million and acquisition-related costs of $19 million, both related to the KCS acquisition. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, the effective income tax rate was 24.75%, excluding the discrete items of amortization of the fair value adjustments associated with purchase accounting of $187 million and acquisition-related costs of $36 million, both related to the KCS acquisition, and advisory costs related to the analysis and advocacy in connection with the STB's review of the proposed merger between UP and NS of $27 million. For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the effective income tax rate was 24.50%, excluding the discrete items of a gain on sale of an equity investment of $333 million, amortization of the fair value adjustments associated with purchase accounting of $190 million and acquisition-related costs of $39 million, both related to the KCS acquisition. 2014 Tax Assessment Canadian Pacific Kansas City Mexico's ("CPKCM") 2014 Tax Assessment is currently in litigation (see Note 14). 6 Earnings per share For the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, there were 0.3 million and 0.8 million options, respectively, excluded from the computation of diluted earnings per share because their effects were not dilutive (three and six months ended June 30, 2025 - 1.8 million and 1.6 million, respectively). 7 Changes in Accumulated other comprehensive income ("AOCI") by component Changes in AOCI attributable to controlling shareholders, net of tax, by component are as follows: 8 Accounts receivable, net 9 Debt During the six months ended June 30, 2026, the Company repaid, at maturity, U.S. $250 million ($339 million) 3.70% 10.5-year notes and U.S. $250 million ($345 million) 3.125% 10-year notes. Issuance of long-term debt During the six months ended June 30, 2026, the Company issued U.S. $600 million ($821 million) 4.00% 3-year unsecured notes due March 15, 2029 for net proceeds of U.S. $597 million ($816 million), and U.S. $600 million ($821 million) 5.50% 30-year unsecured notes due March 15, 2056 for net proceeds of U.S. $589 million ($805 million). The issued notes pay interest semi-annually and carry a negative pledge. Credit facility Effective July 6, 2026, the Company amended its revolving credit facility agreement (the "facility") to extend the maturity dates of its two-year U.S. $1.1 billion tranche and five-year U.S. $1.1 billion tranche to June 25, 2028, and June 25, 2031, respectively. As at June 30, 2026, the facility was undrawn (December 31, 2025 - undrawn). The Company presents draws and repayments on the facility in the Interim Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows on a net basis. Commercial paper program Effective March 27, 2026, the Company increased the maximum size of its commercial paper program through the addition of a Canadian dollar commercial paper program which allows the Company to borrow Canadian dollars in the form of unsecured promissory notes. This increased the maximum amount the Company can borrow under the program from U.S. $1.5 billion to U.S. $2.2 billion, or the Canadian dollar equivalent, on a combined basis. Both the Canadian and U.S. dollar commercial paper programs are backed by the U.S. $2.2 billion facility. As at June 30, 2026, the Company had total commercial paper borrowings outstanding of U.S. $1,028 million ($1,461 million) recognized in "Long-term debt maturing within one year" on the Company's Interim Consolidated Balance Sheets (December 31, 2025 - U.S. $850 million ($1,165 million)). The weighted-average interest rate on these borrowings as at June 30, 2026 was 2.70% (December 31, 2025 - 4.02%). The Company presents issuances and repayments of commercial paper, all of which have a maturity of less than 90 days, in the Interim Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows on a net basis. 10 Financial instruments A. Fair values of financial instruments The Company categorizes its financial assets and liabilities measured at fair value into a three-level hierarchy that prioritizes those inputs to valuation techniques used to measure fair value based on the degree to which they are observable. The three levels of the fair value hierarchy are as follows: Level 1 inputs are quoted prices in active markets for identical assets and liabilities; Level 2 inputs, other than quoted prices included within Level 1, are observable for the asset or liability either directly or indirectly; and Level 3 inputs are not observable in the market. The Company's short-term financial instruments include cash and cash equivalents, accounts receivable, accounts payable and accrued liabilities, and short-term borrowings, including commercial paper and term loans. The carrying value of short-term financial instruments approximate their fair value. The carrying value of the Company's debt does not approximate its fair value. The estimated fair value has been determined based on market information, where available, or by discounting future payments of principal and interest at estimated interest rates expected to be available to the Company at the balance sheet date. All measurements are classified as Level 2. The Company's long-term debt, including current maturities, with a carrying value of $23,686 million as at June 30, 2026 (December 31, 2025 - $22,023 million), had a fair value of $22,182 million (December 31, 2025 - $20,740 million). B. Financial risk management Foreign exchange ("FX") management Net investment hedgeThe majority of the Company's U.S. dollar-denominated long-term debt, finance lease obligations, and operating lease liabilities have been designated as a hedge of the Company's net investment in foreign subsidiaries. This designation has the effect of mitigating volatility on Net income by offsetting long-term FX gains and losses on U.S. dollar-denominated long-term debt and gains and losses on its net investment. The effect of the Company's net investment hedge for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 was an FX loss of $134 million and $257 million, respectively (three and six months ended June 30, 2025 - FX gain of $299 million and $305 million, respectively) recognized in "Other comprehensive income (loss)". 11 Share repurchases On January 28, 2026, the Company announced a normal course issuer bid ("NCIB"), commencing February 2, 2026, to purchase up to 44.9 million Common Shares in the open market for cancellation on or before February 1, 2027. On February 27, 2025, the Company announced a NCIB, commencing March 3, 2025, to purchase up to 37.3 million Common Shares in the open market for cancellation on or before March 2, 2026. By October 29, 2025, the Company had purchased and cancelled all 37.3 million Common Shares authorized to be purchased under the NCIB. All purchases were made in accordance with the respective NCIB at prevailing market prices plus brokerage fees, with consideration allocated to "Share capital" up to the average carrying amount of the Common Shares and any excess allocated to "Retained earnings". In accordance with Canadian tax legislation, the Company has accrued for a 2% tax on the fair market value of Common Shares repurchased (net of qualifying issuances of equity) as a direct cost of Common Share repurchases recognized in Shareholders' equity. During the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, the Company has accrued a liability of $25 million and $36 million, respectively, for the tax due on the net share repurchases made, payable within the first quarter of the following year. The following table provides activities under the share repurchase program: 12 Pension and other benefits During the three months ended June 30, 2026, the Company received a refund, net of contributions, from its defined benefit pension plans of $1 million, and during the six months ended June 30, 2026, made contributions, net of refunds, of $2 million (three and six months ended June 30, 2025 - $4 million and $8 million contributions, net of refunds, respectively). Net periodic benefit (recovery) cost for defined benefit pension plans and other benefits included the following components: 13 Stock-based compensation As at June 30, 2026, the Company had several stock-based compensation plans including stock option plans, various cash‑settled liability plans, and an employee share purchase plan. These plans resulted in an expense for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026 of $94 million and $143 million, respectively (three and six months ended June 30, 2025 - $59 million and $92 million, respectively). Stock options plan In the six months ended June 30, 2026, under the Company's stock option plan, the Company issued 1,189,411 options at the weighted-average price of $104.69 per share, based on the closing price of the Company's Common Shares on the TSX at the grant date. Pursuant to the employee plan, these options may be exercised upon vesting, which is between 12 months and 48 months after the grant date, and will expire seven years from the grant date. Under the fair value method, the fair value of the stock options at the grant date was approximately $30 million. Performance share unit plans During the six months ended June 30, 2026, the Company issued 629,722 Performance Share Units ("PSUs") with a grant date fair value of $66 million and 20,386 Performance Deferred Share Units ("PDSUs") with a grant date fair value, including the fair value of expected future matching units, of $3 million. PSUs and PDSUs attract dividend equivalents in the form of additional units based on dividends paid on the Company's Common Shares, and vest three to four years after the grant date, contingent on the Company's performance ("performance factor"). Vested PSUs are settled in cash. Vested PDSUs are converted into Deferred Share Units ("DSUs") pursuant to the DSU plan, are eligible for a 25% Company match if the employee has not exceeded their Common Share ownership requirements, and are settled in cash only when the holder ceases their employment with the Company. The performance period for all PSUs and all PDSUs granted in the six months ended June 30, 2026 is January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2028 and the performance factors are Free Cash Flow ("FCF"), Total Shareholder Return ("TSR") compared to the Standard and Poor's ("S&P")/TSX 60 Index, and TSR compared to the S&P 500 Industrials Index. The performance period for the 544,175 PSUs and 26,333 PDSUs granted in 2023 was January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2025, and the performance factors were FCF, Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization ("EBITDA"), TSR compared to the S&P/TSX 60 Index, TSR compared to the S&P 500 Industrials Index, and TSR compared to other Class I railways. The resulting payout was 91% of the outstanding units multiplied by the Company's average Common Share price calculated based on the last 30 trading days preceding December 31, 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, payouts were $42 million on 461,766 PSUs, including dividends reinvested. The 26,555 PDSUs that vested on December 31, 2025, with a fair value of $3 million, including dividends reinvested and matching units, will be paid out in future reporting periods pursuant to the DSU plan (as described above). 14 Contingencies Litigation In the normal course of its operations, the Company becomes involved in various legal actions, including claims relating to injuries and damage to property. The Company maintains provisions it considers to be adequate for such actions. While the final outcome with respect to actions outstanding or pending as at June 30, 2026 cannot be predicted with certainty, it is the opinion of management that their resolution will not have a material adverse effect on the Company's business, financial position, results of operations, or liquidity. However, an unexpected adverse resolution of one or more of these legal actions could have a material adverse effect on the Company's business, financial position, results of operations, or liquidity in a particular quarter or fiscal year. Legal proceedings related to Lac-Mégantic rail accident On July 6, 2013, a train carrying petroleum crude oil operated by Montréal Maine and Atlantic Railway ("MMAR") or a subsidiary, Montréal Maine & Atlantic Canada Co. ("MMAC" and collectively the "MMA Group"), derailed in Lac-Mégantic, Québec. The derailment occurred on a section of railway owned and operated by the MMA Group and while the MMA Group exclusively controlled the train. Following the derailment, MMAC sought court protection in Canada under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act and MMAR filed for bankruptcy in the U.S. Plans of arrangement were approved in both Canada and the U.S. (the "Plans"), providing for the distribution of approximately $440 million amongst those claiming derailment damages. A number of legal proceedings, set out below, were commenced in Canada and the U.S. against the Company and others: (1) Québec's Minister of Sustainable Development, Environment, Wildlife and Parks ordered various parties, including the Company, to remediate the derailment site (the "Cleanup Order") and served the Company with a Notice of Claim for $95 million for those costs. The Company appealed the Cleanup Order and contested the Notice of Claim with the Administrative Tribunal of Québec. These proceedings are stayed pending determination of the Attorney General of Québec ("AGQ") action (paragraph 2 below). (2) The AGQ sued the Company in the Québec Superior Court claiming $409 million in damages, which was further amended and reduced to $231 million (the "AGQ Action"). The AGQ Action alleges that: (i) the Company was responsible for the petroleum crude oil from its point of origin until its delivery to Irving Oil Ltd.; and (ii) the Company is vicariously liable for the acts and omissions of the MMA Group. (3) A class action in the Québec Superior Court on behalf of persons and entities residing in, owning or leasing property in, operating a business in, or physically present in Lac-Mégantic at the time of the derailment was certified against the Company on May 8, 2015 (the "Class Action"). Other defendants including MMAC and Mr. Thomas Harding ("Harding") were added to the Class Action on January 25, 2017. On November 28, 2019, the plaintiffs' motion to discontinue their action against Harding was granted. The Class Action seeks unquantified damages, including for wrongful death, personal injury, property damage, and economic loss. (4) Eight subrogated insurers sued the Company in the Québec Superior Court claiming approximately $16 million in damages, which was amended and reduced to approximately $14 million (the "Promutuel Action"), and two additional subrogated insurers sued the Company claiming approximately $3 million in damages (the "Royal Action"). Both actions contain similar allegations as the AGQ Action. The actions do not identify the subrogated parties. As such, the extent of any overlap between the damages claimed in these actions and under the Plans is unclear. The Royal Action is stayed pending determination of the consolidated proceedings described below. On December 11, 2017, the AGQ Action, the Class Action and the Promutuel Action were consolidated. The joint liability trial of these consolidated claims commenced on September 21, 2021 with oral arguments ending on June 15, 2022. The Québec Superior Court issued a decision on December 14, 2022 dismissing all claims against the Company, finding that the Company's actions were not the direct and immediate cause of the accident and the damages suffered by the plaintiffs. All three plaintiffs filed a declaration of appeal on January 13, 2023. The appeal was heard October 7 to 10, 2024 by the Québec Court of Appeal. On February 26, 2025, the Québec Court of Appeal issued its unanimous decision upholding the trial decision and dismissing the appeals in their entirety. On April 28, 2025, all three plaintiffs filed applications for leave to appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada. On May 30, 2025, the Company filed its response to the plaintiffs' leave applications. On May 14, 2026, the Supreme Court of Canada dismissed all three plaintiffs' filed applications for leave to appeal. (5) Forty-eight plaintiffs (all individual claims joined in one action) sued the Company, MMAC, and Harding in the Québec Superior Court claiming approximately $5 million in damages for economic loss and pain and suffering, and asserting similar allegations as in the Class Action and the AGQ Action. The majority of the plaintiffs opted-out of the Class Action and all but two are also plaintiffs in litigation against the Company, described in paragraph 7 below. This action is stayed pending determination of the consolidated claims described above. (6) The MMAR U.S. bankruptcy estate representative commenced an action against the Company in November 2014 in the Maine Bankruptcy Court claiming that the Company failed to abide by certain regulations and seeking approximately U.S. $30 million in damages for MMAR's loss in business value according to an expert report filed by the bankruptcy estate. This action asserts that the Company knew or ought to have known that the shipper misclassified the petroleum crude oil and therefore should have refused to transport it. Summary judgement motion was argued and taken under advisement on June 9, 2022. On May 23, 2023, the case management judge stayed the proceedings pending the outcome of the appeal in the Canadian consolidated claims. On April 18, 2025, the Court lifted the stay and ordered briefing concerning the Company's request for summary judgement based on the preclusive effect of matters decided in other Lac-Mégantic cases. The Court would address that basis for summary judgement first, then would address other arguments for summary judgement, if necessary, afterwards. On October 8, 2025, the Court heard the Company's summary judgement motion. On April 21, 2026, the Court granted CPKC's motion for summary judgement, dismissing the bankruptcy estate representative's claims. The deadline for any appeal passed in May 2026 and no appeal was filed. (7) The class and mass tort action commenced against the Company in June 2015 in Texas (on behalf of Lac-Mégantic residents and wrongful death representatives) and the wrongful death and personal injury actions commenced against the Company in June 2015 in Illinois and Maine, were all transferred and consolidated in Federal District Court in Maine (the "Maine Actions"). The Maine Actions allege that the Company negligently misclassified and improperly packaged the petroleum crude oil. On the Company's motion, the Maine Actions were dismissed. The plaintiffs appealed the dismissal decision to the U.S. First Circuit Court of Appeals, which dismissed the plaintiffs' appeal on June 2, 2021. The plaintiffs further petitioned the U.S. First Circuit Court of Appeals for a rehearing, which was denied on September 8, 2021. On January 24, 2022, the plaintiffs further appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court on two bankruptcy procedural grounds. On May 31, 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court denied the petition, thereby rejecting the plaintiffs' appeal. (8) The trustee for the wrongful death trust commenced Carmack Amendment claims against the Company in North Dakota Federal Court, seeking to recover approximately U.S. $6 million for damaged rail cars and lost crude oil and reimbursement for the settlement paid by the consignor and the consignee under the Plans (alleged to be U.S. $110 million and U.S. $60 million, respectively). The Court issued an Order on August 6, 2020 granting and denying in parts the parties' summary judgement motions which has been reviewed and confirmed following motions by the parties for clarification and reconsideration. Final briefs of dispositive motions for summary judgement and for reconsideration on tariff applicability were submitted on September 30, 2022. On January 20, 2023, the Court granted in part the Company's summary judgement motion by dismissing all claims for recovery of settlement payments but leaving for trial the determination of the value of the lost crude oil. It also dismissed the Company's motion for reconsideration on tariff applicability. The remaining issues of the value of the lost crude oil and applicability of judgement reduction provisions did not require trial, and were fully briefed in 2024. On January 5, 2024, the Court issued its decision finding that the Company was liable for approximately U.S. $3.9 million plus pre-judgement interest, but declined to determine whether judgement reduction provisions were applicable, referring the parties to a court in Maine on that issue. On January 18, 2024, the Company filed a motion for reconsideration for the Court to apply the judgement reduction provisions. On January 19, 2024, the trustee for the wrongful death trust filed a Notice of Appeal for the January 5, 2024 decision, as well as prior decisions. On February 23, 2024, the Court denied the Company's motion for reconsideration, again referring the parties to a court in Maine to apply the judgement reduction provision. On March 6, 2024, the Company filed its notice of appeal of this latest ruling, as well as prior decisions. The appeal was heard on March 18, 2025. On July 3, 2025, the U.S. Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals unanimously allowed the Company's appeal, reversing the district court decision and remanding the matter back to the district court for a complete reduction of the judgement against the Company. On July 17, 2025, the trustee for the wrongful death trust petitioned the U.S. Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals for a rehearing. On August 7, 2025, the U.S. Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals denied the petition for a rehearing. The deadline for any petition to the U.S. Supreme Court for certiorari passed in November 2025 and no petition was filed. At this stage of the proceedings, any potential responsibility and the quantum of potential losses cannot be determined. Nevertheless, the Company denies liability and is vigorously defending these proceedings. Court decision related to Remington Development Corporation legal claim On October 20, 2022, the Court of King's Bench of Alberta issued a decision in a claim brought by Remington Development Corporation ("Remington") against the Company and the Province of Alberta ("Alberta") with respect to an alleged breach of contract by the Company in relation to the sale of certain properties in Calgary. In its decision, the Court found the Company had breached its contract with Remington and Alberta had induced the contract breach. The Court found the Company and Alberta liable for damages of approximately $164 million plus interest and costs, and subject to an adjustment to the acquisition value of the property. In a further decision on August 30, 2023, the Court determined that adjustment and set the total damages at $165 million plus interest and costs. On October 20, 2023, the Court determined the costs payable to Remington, however, the Court had not provided any indication of how the damages, which were estimated to total approximately $232 million as at June 30, 2025, should be apportioned between the Company and Alberta. On November 17, 2022, the Company filed an appeal of the Court's decision. On April 11, 2024, the Court of Appeal of Alberta ("ABCA") stayed the judgement pending the outcome of the appeal. On September 10, 2024, the ABCA heard the Company's appeal and reserved its decision. On July 2, 2025, the ABCA unanimously allowed the Company's appeal and set aside the trial judgement and costs order. A majority of the ABCA ordered a new trial in the Court of King's Bench. On September 26, 2025, Remington sought leave to appeal the ABCA's decision to the Supreme Court of Canada. On July 2, 2026, the Supreme Court of Canada dismissed Remington's application for leave to appeal the ABCA's decision. 2014 tax assessment On April 13, 2022, the Servicio de Administracion Tributaria ("SAT") delivered an audit assessment of CPKCM's 2014 tax returns (the "2014 Assessment"). As at June 30, 2026, the 2014 Assessment, including inflation, interest, and penalties was Mexican Pesos ("Ps.") 6,667 million ($540 million). On July 7, 2022, CPKCM filed an administrative appeal (the "Administrative Appeal") before the SAT, seeking to revoke the 2014 Assessment on the basis that the SAT's notification of the 2014 Assessment through the tax mailbox was not legal, because it was in violation of a tax mailbox injunction previously granted to CPKCM on March 19, 2015. On September 26, 2022, the SAT dismissed the Administrative Appeal, on the basis that it was not a timely submission (the "Administrative Appeal Resolution"). On October 10, 2022, CPKCM submitted an annulment lawsuit (the "Annulment Lawsuit") before the Federal Administrative Court (the "Administrative Court"), challenging the 2014 Assessment, its notification, and the Administrative Appeal Resolution. On April 24, 2024, the Administrative Court resolved the Annulment Lawsuit, confirming the Administrative Appeal Resolution and the 2014 Assessment (the "Administrative Court Resolution"). On June 21, 2024, CPKCM challenged the Administrative Court Resolution by submitting an Amparo appeal (Demanda de Amparo) before the Collegiate Circuit Courts (Tribunales Colegiados de Circuito). On June 4, 2025, the Twenty Third Collegiate Court of the First Circuit (the "Circuit Court") unanimously granted CPKCM's Amparo petition, vacating the prior decision and sending the matter back to the Administrative Court with an order to issue a new resolution addressing CPKCM's arguments that were presented in the Annulment Lawsuit. On June 25, 2025, the Administrative Court resolved the Annulment Lawsuit unfavourably to CPKCM (the "2025 Administrative Court Resolution"). On August 19, 2025, CPKCM submitted a new Amparo appeal challenging the 2025 Administrative Court Resolution. On September 8, 2025, the Circuit Court admitted the Amparo appeal submitted by CPKCM. CPKCM expects to prevail based on the technical merits of its case. On August 20, 2025, derived from the submission of the Amparo appeal, the Administrative Court issued a resolution granting an injunction against the enforcement and collection of the 2014 Assessment, as long as the 2014 Assessment is duly guaranteed. On March 24, 2026, CPKC filed with the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes ("ICSID") a Request for Arbitration against the United Mexican States, under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ("CPTPP"), for the actions taken by the SAT in connection with the 2014 Assessment. On April 27, 2026, the ICSID registered the Request for Arbitration filed by the Company, which is a procedural step taken to preserve CPKCM's legal rights under the CPTPP. Environmental liabilities Environmental remediation accruals, recognized on an undiscounted basis unless a reliable, determinable estimate as to an amount and timing of costs can be established, cover site-specific remediation programs. The accruals for environmental remediation represent the Company's best estimate of its probable future obligation and include both asserted and unasserted claims, without reduction for anticipated recoveries from third parties. Although the recognized accruals include the Company's best estimate of all probable costs, the Company's total environmental remediation costs cannot be predicted with certainty. Accruals for environmental remediation may change from time to time as new information about previously untested sites becomes known, and as environmental laws and regulations evolve and advances are made in environmental remediation technology. The accruals may also vary as the courts decide legal proceedings against outside parties responsible for contamination. These potential charges, which cannot be quantified at this time, may materially affect income in the particular period in which a charge is recognized. Costs related to existing, but as yet unknown, or future contamination will be accrued in the period in which they become probable and reasonably estimable. Provisions for environmental remediation costs are recognized in the Company's Interim Consolidated Balance Sheets in "Other long-term liabilities", except for the current portion, which is recognized in "Accounts payable and accrued liabilities". The total amount provided as at June 30, 2026 was $248 million (December 31, 2025 - $241 million). Payments are expected to be made over 10 years through 2035. Summary of Rail Data Summary of Rail Data (Continued) Summary of Rail Data (Continued) Summary of Rail Data (Continued) Non-GAAP Measures The Company presents Non-GAAP measures to provide a basis for evaluating underlying earnings and liquidity trends in the Company's current period's financial results that can be compared with the results of operations in prior periods. Management believes these Non-GAAP measures facilitate a multi-period assessment of long-term profitability. These Non-GAAP measures have no standardized meanings and are not defined by accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP") and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. The presentation of these Non-GAAP measures is not intended to be considered in isolation from, as a substitute for, or as superior to the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Non-GAAP Performance and Liquidity Measures The Company uses Core adjusted operating income, Core adjusted operating ratio, Core adjusted income, and Core adjusted diluted earnings per share ("EPS") to evaluate the Company's operating performance and for planning and forecasting future business operations and future profitability. In addition to the Non-GAAP performance measures noted above, other Non-GAAP liquidity measures include Adjusted free cash and Adjusted net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ("EBITDA") ratio. Management believes these Non-GAAP measures provide meaningful supplemental information about our financial results and improved comparability to past performance because they exclude certain significant items that are not considered indicative of future or past financial trends either by nature or amount. As a result, these items are excluded for management's assessment of operational performance, allocation of resources, and preparation of annual budgets. These significant items may include, but are not limited to, restructuring and asset impairment charges, individually significant gains and losses from sales of assets or equity investments, acquisition-related costs, certain adjustments to provisions and settlements of Mexican taxes, advisory costs related to rail consolidation matters, discrete tax items, changes in income tax rates, changes to uncertain tax items, and certain items that are not typical of normal business activities or are outside the control of management. Acquisition-related costs include legal, consulting, integration costs including third-party services and system migration, restructuring and special termination benefit costs, employee retention, and synergy incentive costs. These items may not be non-recurring and may include items that are settled in cash. Specifically, due to the magnitude of the Kansas City Southern ("KCS") acquisition, its significant impact to the Company's business and complexity of integrating the acquired business and operations, the Company continues to expect to incur acquisition-related costs. Management believes excluding these significant items from GAAP results provides an additional viewpoint which may give users a consistent understanding of the Company's financial performance when performing a multi-period assessment including assessing the likelihood of future results. Accordingly, these Non-GAAP financial measures may provide additional insight to investors and other external users of the Company's financial information. In addition, these Non-GAAP measures exclude KCS purchase accounting. KCS purchase accounting represents the amortization of basis differences being the incremental depreciation or amortization in relation to fair value adjustments to properties, intangible assets, and KCS's investments, the change in fair value of debt of KCS assumed on April 14, 2023 (the "Control Date"), and fair value adjustments that are attributable to the non-controlling interest, as recognized within "Depreciation and amortization", "Purchased services and other", "Other (income) expense", "Net interest expense", and "Net loss attributable to non-controlling interest", respectively, in the Company's Interim Consolidated Statements of Income. All assets subject to KCS purchase accounting contribute to income generation and will continue to amortize over their estimated useful lives. Excluding KCS purchase accounting from GAAP results provides financial statement users with additional transparency by isolating the impact of KCS purchase accounting. Significant items recognized in "Net income attributable to controlling shareholders" as reported on a GAAP basis for the first six months of 2026, the year ended December 31, 2025, and the last six months of 2024 were as follows: 2026: during the first six months, acquisition-related costs of $36 million in connection with the KCS acquisition ($27 million after current income tax recovery of $9 million) including $25 million recognized in "Compensation and benefits" primarily related to synergy related incentive compensation and restructuring costs, and $11 million recognized in "Purchased services and other" primarily related to system migration, legal fees, and other third party purchased services, that unfavourably impacted Diluted EPS by 3 cents as follows: during the first six months, advisory costs related to the analysis and advocacy in connection with the STB's review of the proposed merger between Union Pacific Corporation and Norfolk Southern Corporation of $27 million ($21 million after current income tax recovery of $6 million) recognized in "Purchased services and other", that unfavourably impacted Diluted EPS by 2 cents as follows: 2025: during the course of the year, a gain on sale of an equity investment of $333 million ($256 million after current income tax expense of $102 million net of deferred income tax recovery of $25 million) recognized in "Gain on sale of equity investment", that favourably impacted Diluted EPS by 27 cents as follows: during the course of the year, acquisition-related costs of $72 million in connection with the KCS acquisition ($56 million after current income tax recovery of $16 million), including $11 million recognized in "Compensation and benefits" primarily related to synergy related incentive compensation and restructuring costs, $1 million recognized in "Materials", $51 million recognized in "Purchased services and other" primarily related to system migration, legal fees, and other third party purchased services, and $9 million recognized in "Other components of net period benefit recovery" related to special termination benefit costs, that unfavourably impacted Diluted EPS by 6 cents as follows: 2024: in the fourth quarter, a deferred income tax recovery of $78 million due to a decrease in the Louisiana state corporate income tax rate, that favourably impacted Diluted EPS by 9 cents; during the last six months, adjustments to provisions and settlements of Mexican taxes of $14 million recovery ($12 million after deferred income tax expense of $2 million) recognized in "Compensation and benefits", that favourably impacted Diluted EPS by 1 cent as follows: during the last six months, acquisition-related costs of $58 million in connection with the KCS acquisition ($43 million after current income tax recovery of $15 million), including $12 million recognized in "Compensation and benefits" primarily related to retention and synergy related incentive compensation costs; $2 million recognized in "Materials"; and $44 million recognized in "Purchased services and other" primarily related to system migration, relocation expenses, legal and consulting fees, that unfavourably impacted Diluted EPS by 5 cents as follows: KCS purchase accounting recognized in "Net income attributable to controlling shareholders" as reported on a GAAP basis for the first six months of 2026, the year ended December 31, 2025 and the last six months of 2024 was as follows: 2026: during the first six months, KCS purchase accounting of $184 million ($134 million after deferred income tax recovery of $50 million), including costs of $175 million recognized in "Depreciation and amortization", $1 million recognized in "Purchased services and other" related to the amortization of equity investments, $11 million recognized in "Net interest expense", and a recovery of $3 million recognized in "Net loss attributable to non-controlling interest", that unfavourably impacted Diluted EPS by 15 cents as follows: 2025: during the course of the year, KCS purchase accounting of $391 million ($285 million after deferred income tax recovery of $106 million), including costs of $373 million recognized in "Depreciation and amortization", $3 million recognized in "Purchased services and other" related to the amortization of equity investments, $21 million recognized in "Net interest expense", $1 million recognized in "Other (income) expense", and a recovery of $7 million recognized in "Net loss attributable to non-controlling interest", that unfavourably impacted Diluted EPS by 31 cents as follows: 2024: during the last six months, KCS purchase accounting of $182 million ($133 million after deferred income tax recovery of $49 million), including $172 million recognized in "Depreciation and amortization", $1 million recognized in "Purchased services and other" related to the amortization of equity investments, $10 million recognized in "Net interest expense", $2 million recognized in "Other (income) expense", and a recovery of $3 million recognized in "Net loss attributable to non-controlling interest", that unfavourably impacted Diluted EPS by 15 cents as follows: Reconciliation of GAAP Performance Measures to Non-GAAP Performance Measures The following tables reconcile the most directly comparable measures presented in accordance with GAAP to the Non-GAAP measures: Core Adjusted Income and Core Adjusted Diluted EPS Core adjusted income is calculated as Net income attributable to controlling shareholders reported on a GAAP basis adjusted for significant items and KCS purchase accounting. Core adjusted diluted EPS is calculated using Diluted EPS reported on a GAAP basis adjusted for significant items and KCS purchase accounting. Core Adjusted Operating Income and Core Adjusted Operating Ratio Core adjusted operating income and Core adjusted operating ratio are calculated from reported GAAP revenue and operating expenses adjusted for, where applicable, (1) significant items (acquisition-related costs and advisory costs related to rail consolidation matters) that are reported within Operating income, and (2) KCS purchase accounting recognized in "Depreciation and amortization" and "Purchased services and other". FX Adjusted % Change FX adjusted % change allows certain financial results to be viewed without the impact of fluctuations in FX rates, thereby facilitating period-to-period comparisons in the analysis of trends in business performance. Financial result variances at constant currency are obtained by translating the comparable period of the prior year's results denominated in U.S. dollars and Mexican pesos at the FX rates of the current period. FX adjusted % changes in revenues are also used in calculating FX adjusted % change in Freight revenue per carload and per RTM. FX adjusted % changes in revenues are as follows: FX adjusted % changes in Operating expenses are as follows: FX adjusted % change in Operating income is as follows: Reconciliation of GAAP Liquidity Measures to Non-GAAP Liquidity Measures Adjusted Free Cash Adjusted free cash is calculated as Net cash provided by operating activities, less Net cash used in investing activities, adjusted for changes in Cash and cash equivalents balances resulting from FX rate fluctuations, the cash flow impacts of acquisition-related costs associated with the KCS acquisition, certain settlements of Mexican taxes, advisory costs related to rail consolidation matters and net proceeds from the sale of an equity investment, net of tax which are not indicative of operating trends. Adjusted free cash is useful to investors and other external users of the Company's Interim Consolidated Financial Statements as it assists with the evaluation of the Company's ability to generate cash to satisfy debt obligations and other activities such as dividends, share repurchase programs, and other strategic opportunities, and is an important performance criterion in determining certain elements of the Company's long-term incentive plan. Adjusted free cash should be considered in addition to, rather than as a substitute for, Net cash provided by operating activities. Reconciliation of Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities to Adjusted Free Cash Adjusted Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA Ratio Adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio is calculated as Adjusted net debt divided by Adjusted EBITDA. The Adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio is a key credit measure used to assess the Company's financial capacity. The ratio provides information on the Company's ability to service its debt and other long-term obligations from operations, excluding significant items. The Adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio which is reconciled below from the Long-term debt to Net income attributable to controlling shareholders ratio, the most comparable measure calculated in accordance with GAAP. Calculation of Long-term Debt to Net Income Attributable to Controlling Shareholders Ratio The Long-term debt to Net income attributable to controlling shareholders ratio is calculated as Long-term debt, including Long-term debt maturing within one year, divided by Net income attributable to controlling shareholders. Reconciliation of Long-term Debt to Adjusted Net Debt Adjusted net debt is defined as Long-term debt and Long-term debt maturing within one year, as reported on the Company's Interim Consolidated Balance Sheets adjusted for pension plans' deficit, operating lease liabilities, Cash and cash equivalents, and the fair value adjustment to KCS debt on the Control Date which is recognized under Long-term debt on the Company's Interim Consolidated Balance Sheets. Adjusted net debt is used as a measure of debt and long-term obligations as part of the calculation of Adjusted net debt to Adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliation of Net Income Attributable to Controlling Shareholders to Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as Net income attributable to controlling shareholders before Net interest expense, Income tax expense, Depreciation and amortization, and Operating lease expense recognized on the Company's Interim Consolidated Statement of Income, excluding significant items reported in "Net income", less "Other components of net periodic benefit recovery" recognized on the Company's Interim Consolidated Statement of Income. Adjusted EBITDA is used as a performance measure derived from operating results, excluding significant items, as part of the calculation of Adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA. Detailed quarterly information on significant items that occurred within the 12 months ended June 30, 2026 and 2025 can be found under the earlier section Core Adjusted Income and Core Adjusted Diluted EPS. Calculation of Adjusted Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA Ratio View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/cpkc-reports-strong-q2-results-poised-for-accelerated-growth-in-second-half-of-2026-302838199.html View original content to download multimedia: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/July2026/29/c5802.html
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-29Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Tops Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Zacks
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Tops Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.92 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.89 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.81 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +3.37%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this railroad would post earnings of $0.78 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.76, delivering a surprise of -2.56%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once. Canadian Pacific Kansas City, which belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Rail industry, posted revenues of $3.01 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.26%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $2.67 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Canadian Pacific Kansas City shares have added about 24.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.5%. While Canadian Pacific Kansas City has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Canadian Pacific Kansas City was unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near f…Read full documentShow less
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.92 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.89 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.81 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +3.37%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this railroad would post earnings of $0.78 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.76, delivering a surprise of -2.56%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates just once. Canadian Pacific Kansas City, which belongs to the Zacks Transportation - Rail industry, posted revenues of $3.01 billion for the quarter ended June 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.26%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $2.67 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates just once over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Canadian Pacific Kansas City shares have added about 24.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 8.5%. While Canadian Pacific Kansas City has outperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Canadian Pacific Kansas City was unfavorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to underperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.94 on $2.91 billion in revenues for the coming quarter and $3.69 on $11.53 billion in revenues for the current fiscal year. Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Transportation - Rail is currently in the top 26% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1. One other stock from the broader Zacks Transportation sector, Global Ship Lease (GSL), is yet to report results for the quarter ended June 2026. The results are expected to be released on August 6. This containership owner is expected to post quarterly earnings of $2.34 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -12.4%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. Global Ship Lease's revenues are expected to be $192.97 million, up 0.6% from the year-ago quarter. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) : Free Stock Analysis Report Global Ship Lease, Inc. (GSL) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research
TranscriptFY2026 Q22026-07-29FY2026 Q2 earnings call transcript
Earnings source - 144 paragraphs
FY2026 Q2 earnings call transcript
Good afternoon. My name is Leo, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to CPKC's second quarter 2026 conference call. The slides accompanying today's call are available at investor.cpkcr.com. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the star two. I would now like to introduce Chris de Bruyn, Vice President, Capital Markets, Tax and Treasurer, to begin the conference call.
Thank you, Leo. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before we begin, I want to remind you this presentation contains forward-looking information. Actual results may differ. The risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could influence actual results are described on slide two in the press release and in the MD&A filed with Canadian and U.S. regulators. This presentation also contains non-GAAP measures, as outlined on slide three. With me here today is Keith Creel, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Nadeem Velani, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; John Brooks, our Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer; and Mark Redd, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. The formal remarks will be followed by Q&As. In the interest of time, we would appreciate if you limit your questions to one.
It is now my pleasure to introduce our President and CEO, Mr. Keith Creel.
Thanks, Chris, and again, thanks for everyone joining us on the call today. As I always do, I start by thanking the 20,000 strong team of railroaders we have producing these excellent results. I remain extremely proud to serve with each one of you, so thank you for your efforts and your sacrifices. The performance, if you look at it, reflects the strength of the CPKC franchise, the resilience of our business mix, and the continued benefits of uniquely connecting Canada, U.S., and Mexico through the only single line rail network that uniquely serves all three countries. We brought these railroads together just over three years ago to create something unique, a network capable of unlocking new supply chains, expanding market access, increasing competition across North America, and we're doing exactly that. With each passing quarter, that vision is becoming a reality.
The results for the quarter, the team delivered volume growth of 4%, revenue growth of 13%, an operating ratio of 61.6%, earnings of $1.27, which is an increase of 13%. The results are driven by a combination of discipline execution, by Mark and the team's strong service performance, and continued growth across many of our key franchises. Operationally, the railroad continues to perform at a very high level. During the quarter, we established new records across a number of the key operating metrics with asset utilization, train velocity, terminal fluidity, all improved year-over-year, demonstrating the ability to safely and efficiently move more freight across the network while creating additional capacity for John to sell into our future growth. On the growth initiative side, what continues to excite us the most is the opportunities ahead.
The rationale for combining CP and KCS is pretty simple: create the first and only single-line railroad that links Canada, the United States, and Mexico, and leverage the network to generate value for our customers and our shareholders. Today, we're seeing the strategy translate into these tangible results. During the quarter, we established volume records in grain, energy, chemicals, plastics, and automotive. We also advanced several important commercial initiatives that reinforce the long-term growth story of our network and franchise. The launch and the momentum behind our enhanced Southeast Mexico Express service, continued growth on the Mexico Midwest Express service, the opening of another Americold facility, this time at the Port of Saint John in Atlantic Canada, and continued increased traffic flows between Canada and Mexico via the CPKC land bridge that uniquely is enabled by this North American franchise.
Perhaps most importantly, as we look forward, our commercial pipeline remains robust. Customers across multiple sectors continue to look for ways to simplify supply chains, reduce friction at borders, increase resiliency, improve transit performance. CPKC is uniquely positioned to help them achieve those objectives. In closing, as we enter the second half of the year, we do so from a position of strength. Our network is performing extremely well. Our service product is strong. Our growth pipeline continues to expand. While uncertainty remains in parts of the macroeconomic environment, we're encouraged by the improving market conditions across several markets. It's a growth story. Growth in cross-border traffic, growth in new supply chains, growth enabled by a network that is uniquely created in North America by CPKC. We're still in the early chapters of this story, realizing the full potential of this franchise.
We've led the industry in revenue and earnings growth the last two years, and we're well-positioned to deliver another year of double-digit earnings growth in 2026. With that said, I'm going to turn it over to Mark, who can elaborate a bit on operations. John will bring some color on the markets, Nadeem on the numbers, and we look forward to Q&A session. Mark, over to you.
Thank you, Keith, and good afternoon. I want to begin by recognizing our team of railroaders across North America for another outstanding quarter of execution. The commitment, discipline, and focus enable CPKC to deliver record levels of operating performance while continuing to provide customers with safe and reliable service. During the quarter, we set second quarter records across a number of key productivity metrics, including train speed, dwell, locomotive productivity, and fuel efficiency. These results reflect the strength of our operating model, and most importantly, the dedication of our railroaders who continue to execute at a very high level every day. As we mark one year since completing the consolidation of our U.S. and Canadian operating systems, the benefits of that work continue to be realized across the network. Our teams are aligned around common processes, sharing performance measures, and real-time visibility across the network.
This is allowing us to identify opportunities quicker, resolve issues faster, and make better decisions. As we continue to realize the benefits of the operations as one railroad operating for freedom, the visibility and coordination created through the integration of our Canadian and U.S. operating systems allow us to manage train execution across the network with a great precision and consistency than ever before. The result is a more fluid, efficient and consistent railroad delivering even stronger service and asset utilization across the three-nation system. Turning to safety, this remains our top priority. During the quarter, both personal injury frequency and train accidents increased versus a year ago, still remain 1.0 for FRA train accidents and 0.96 for FRA personal injuries. While we are disappointed by these results, we remain fully committed to continuous improvement. Safety is a journey that requires constant diligence, learning, and engagement.
We're taking action to address the underlying trends and remain focused on ensuring every employee returns home safe at every shift while continuing to improve the safety of our operations. Turning to our locomotive fleet. We have now received all 70 Wabtec locomotives scheduled for delivery in 2026. We remain on track to begin receiving Progress Rail locomotives in the second half. Building on the 100 locomotives received from Wabtec last year, we continue to make significant investments in fleet modernization to support the long-term growth and efficiency of our CP network. These investments are already supporting improved reliability and efficiency across the network, particularly on our Transcon operations in Canada, where the new units have been deployed. With additional locomotives in our service, we expect further benefit through the improved asset availability, network resilience, and operating performance. Finally, our engineering team has been consistently delivering exceptional productivity.
Their work has supported record grain loadings while maintaining strong network performance. Importantly, rail and tie replacement continues to progress ahead of schedule. Our rails and tie crews have increased year-over-year installation productivity by 18% and 59%, respectively. We fully expect to be off the main line in Western Canada well before the start of the fall harvest season, positioning us to support customer demand during one of the busiest periods of the year. In closing, our railway continues to perform at an extremely high level. As a note, Keith, John, and I spent some time out on the railroad last week and we came away pleased with what we accomplished while also identifying the areas of further opportunity. That's what true PSR looks like. I always remember, A plus today is B minus tomorrow, as we continue to drive for continuous improvement.
Strong execution by our employees, the benefits of strengthening our integration, disciplined focus on service performance, strategic investments, and continued productivity improvements across the business will position us well in the second half. With that, I'll turn it over to John.
All right. Thank you, Mark, and good afternoon. Our second quarter results reflect the strength of CPKC's unique franchise and the benefits of our three-nation network. This quarter is another great example of how we continue to stack up growth from synergies and new business wins. We're realizing strong price for the value of the service and our capacity. Looking at our Q2 results, we delivered Q2 record freight revenues excluding fuel and all-time record GTMs, up 13% and 4%, respectively. Cents per RTM increased 9%, reflecting higher fuel surcharge revenue, sustained pricing strength, and moderating mix headwinds. Based on our current outlook for fuel and FX, we expect continued strength in yields in the second half of the year. Moving on to the next slide, before discussing the lines of business, I'd like to spend a moment on the consistency of our growth.
Reflecting on Q2 since 2023, we've delivered 17% RTM growth or 22% excluding fuel. This performance, despite a challenging macro backdrop, is a result of laser-focused commercial execution unlocked through the strength of our service product, network efficiency, and the capacity we can offer into the marketplace. Taking a closer look at our second quarter revenue performance, I'll speak to FX-adjusted results. Starting with bulk. Q2 was another record quarter for grain in revenue, RTMs, and car loads, with revenue increasing 24% on 19% volume growth. Canadian grain volumes increased 24%, driven by record harvest and continued growth in the markets such as Mexico. U.S. grain volumes increased 14%, also driven by strong demand into Mexico and also to the PNW markets.
Looking ahead, we remain optimistic that both supply and demand will remain solid through Q3, although it's still early to tell, the new crop across our network is off to a pretty good start. Potash revenues were up 10% on a 2% decline in volume, reflecting the impact of port maintenance and lower mine production. Looking ahead, while we continue to expect impacts from port maintenance, export demand fundamentals remain healthy, and we are working closely with our customers in this space to maximize our potash volumes into the second half of the year. To round out bulk, coal revenue declined 18% on a 29% reduction in volumes, reducing our total RTM growth by approximately 3% on the quarter. This decline was driven by ongoing production-related challenges at our customer mines, which impacted shipments throughout the quarter.
While run rates have stabilized, and the shipment levels are improving, we expect coal to continue to be a headwind in the second half of the year. Moving on to merchandise. Energy, Chemicals, and Plastics revenue increased 8% on 6% volume growth. The volume growth was driven primarily by higher DRU and conventional crude shipments, partially offset by lower fuel oil shipments into Mexico. Looking ahead, we expect continued growth in ECP, driven by improved market fundamentals and new business wins. Forest Products revenue increased 2% on 2% lower volumes. Despite the decline in volumes, we are encouraged to see continued strength in synergies led by lumber shipments into our Southern U.S. markets, highlighting our unique ability to connect supply and demand across North America. In fact, despite higher interest rates and lower housing starts, June marked a record month for lumber synergy shipments across our network.
Metals, Minerals, and Consumer Products revenue increased 16% on 7% volume growth. Growth was driven by improving steel volumes across both domestic and land bridge lanes, along with continued strength in aggregate shipments, supported by new construction activity in the southern part of our network. Moving on to Automotive, revenue increased 19% on 8% volume growth, representing another record quarter. Growth was driven by new business wins and extended length of haul as Automotive continues to be a compelling example of the value of our three-nation network. Closing with our Intermodal franchise, revenue increased 11% on flat volumes. Domestic Intermodal volumes increased 3% in the quarter. We are encouraged by the early success of our SMX service with CSX, with volumes increasing more than 30% from Q1. We are seeing signs of improving truck-to-rail conversion opportunities supported by higher fuel prices, tighter regulatory enforcement, and reduced trucking capacity.
Both our MMX and SMX services are well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable market dynamics. In International, volumes declined 2% as we lapped strong pull ahead on prior year comparisons. Looking ahead, we expect to return to growth in International, supported by our strong service products from the Port of Vancouver, and as we execute specific growth initiatives at Port of Saint John and also Lázaro Cárdenas. In summary, the pipeline of unique growth opportunities is strong, and we continue to capture pricing momentum across our book of business. With improvements in the freight demand trends, continued synergy realization, and a growing pipeline of new business wins, I remain very confident in our ability to deliver mid-single-digit volume growth in 2026. With that, I'll pass it over to Nadeem.
Thanks, John, and good afternoon. We delivered another quarter of strong volume growth, disciplined execution, and effective cost control. These results underscore the strength of our franchise and our ability to translate our unique opportunities into earnings and cash flow growth. We continue to realize merger synergies while Mark and his team are delivering excellent operating performance and customer service. I'm very pleased with the underlying performance of the business and the momentum we are carrying into the second half of the year. Turning to our second quarter on slide 15. CPKC's reported operating ratio was 64.6%. Our core adjusted operating ratio was 61.6%, up 90 basis points from last year. Diluted earnings per share was $1.15, and core adjusted diluted EPS was $1.27, up 13% versus last year.
Taking a closer look at our expenses on slide 16, I will speak to the year-over-year variances on an FX-adjusted basis. Core adjusted comp and benefits expense was $702 million. The year-over-year increase was driven by higher stock-based compensation, wage inflation, and volume-related costs. These were partially offset by ongoing productivity gains, improving train weights, and continued operating efficiency improvements. Looking ahead, we expect to continue generating strong labor productivity in the second half of the year with modest headcount growth supporting accelerating volume growth. Fuel expense was up 49% year-over-year. The increase was driven primarily by a 52% increase in on-highway diesel price, along with higher volume. This was partially offset by a 4% improvement in fuel efficiency, driven by increased train weights and improved locomotive productivity. Materials expense was up 3% year-over-year.
The increase was primarily driven by inflation, including the impact of higher fuel price on our non-locomotive fleet, partially offset by efficiency gains from contract optimization and lower locomotive material costs. Equipment rents were 6% lower versus prior year, reflecting improved asset utilization, stronger network velocity, and improved cycle times. Depreciation and amortization expense was up 5%, driven by a larger asset base. Core adjusted PS&O expense was $585 million. The year-over-year increase was driven by higher casualty costs and inflation, partially offset by productivity initiatives and operating efficiencies across the network. In reviewing the quarter, I'd highlight the strength of the underlying business performance and execution. Strong volume growth, disciplined pricing, and continued productivity improvements enabled us to deliver another quarter of double-digit earnings growth while absorbing several notable cost headwinds.
Higher casualty costs and stock-based compensation represented a 4% impact to EPS and 120 basis point headwind to OR. Year-over-year changes to fuel price were 130 basis point headwind to the OR. Despite these impacts, the underlying trajectory of the business remains strong. The combination of volume growth, operating leverage, and disciplined cost management allowed us to offset these headwinds and deliver strong earnings growth in the quarter. Moving below the line on slide 17, net interest expense was $237 million or $231 million excluding purchase accounting. The increase was driven primarily by interest on new debt, partially offset by lower commercial paper balances and debt repayments. Income tax expense was $335 million or $370 million adjusted for purchase accounting and significant items. We continue to expect a full year core adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 24.75%.
Turning to slide 18 in cash flow, year-to-date net cash provided by operating activities was up 8%, driven by higher operating income. Our year-to-date capital expenditures were $1.4 billion, and we remain on track to deliver full-year CapEx of $2.65 billion, a 15% reduction year-over-year. Year-to-date adjusted free cash was $1.3 billion, up 25% over prior year. During the first half of the year, our disciplined approach to capital management delivered $2.4 billion of shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividends, reflecting a balanced and opportunistic allocation of capital. In closing, we delivered strong financial results in the second quarter, reflecting healthy volume growth, disciplined pricing, ongoing productivity improvements, and effective cost management. The business continues to generate strong earnings and cash flow while our balance sheet and capital allocation priorities remain unchanged.
As we look to the second half of the year, continued execution across the network, ongoing efficiency and growth initiatives position us well to achieve our full-year guidance and deliver sustainable long-term shareholder value. With that, I'll turn it over back to you, Keith.
Okay. With that, operator, let's open it up for questions. Thank you, gentlemen.
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star two as previously highlighted. Please limit yourself to one question. Your first question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Obviously-
Go ahead.
... a solid quarter. I guess I wanted to talk a little bit about what we've seen in developments with the transaction between UP and NS, in particular the agreement with Canadian National. Just want to get a sense of how do you feel if it does change anything from a competitive landscape for CP? Sort of how do you feel like you fit into the dynamics here and then the growth opportunities that you see from the combined network of CP and KC over the multi-year period of time in light of what we've seen so far?
Well, Chris, you might get a two-part answer here. When you say the agreement, point out which specific agreement.
I guess there's two. There's one that's contingent on the transaction and one that's not. I guess in terms of EJ&E and the potential access down through Texas, I guess maybe start there? Maybe if you want to expand on it to include both of them, I'd be curious your take.
Okay. Well, I'm going to go high level. John, I'll let you fill in some of the markets. I try to decouple myself, but it's tough to decouple myself from 17 years of experience. A lot of which, the latter years entailed fighting for the right and the ability and the operational capacity to kind of decouple yourselves from the whims of the Chicago operating experience in inside that inner loop. That EJ&E route, that interstate around Chicago, to me, is kind of the holy grail in Chicago from a network perspective when I have my old hat on. I'm very sensitive, admittedly. I understand the pain and suffering it took. I also understand more so than others, I would argue the operational benefit of having that asset. When I think about that deal standalone, I think Jim, good on Jim.
He understands like I understand the benefit of having that capacity and that relief valve and that through kind of interstate route around Chicago. When I put my CN hat on, if I were to, and I think back and reflect, that's not unlimited capacity you just gave away. That is your insurance clause. Maybe today you have latent capacity, 10 years from now, do you have latent capacity? To think and suggest just because somebody else pays for the capital, there's unlimited right of way to build sidings and to build infrastructure, at some point, and these are long-term assets and long-term decisions, there's got to be accountability for that decision. You wake up in the middle of a meltdown in Chicago, especially if UP and NS were to realize their ambitions in the most heavily congested, busiest location in North America.
Now you're battling with UP trains and CN trains for the same capacity. Then further think this thing out, as I have a bit, how does that impact the overall complex of Chicago now? You just put The J in play. The questions I have, and I think about this, and I haven't quite gotten to this part of the supplemental information that's provided. I spent maybe way too much time on 84 pages of corrections, and then I read Jim's letter, and then I got to a little bit of the CGP stuff. I'm wondering how that changes their merger plans and how that gets tweaked and how you integrate that in, number one. I think about the day when the place melts down and how you decouple now and you have no relief valve. It gives me concern.
What did you get for that? You got access to Mexico via Memphis Gateway. You get the ability to quote to a customer a two-line move, perhaps, with a haulage rate, as opposed to a three, but it's still a three-line move. It's still a route over Memphis operationally. It's still controlled and dispatched by the Union Pacific. You still get to the most problematic border point in Mexico with Eagle Pass, and now you've got three railroads fighting for the same capacity going to one railroad. That, compared to our network from a competitive standpoint, operationally, going to our key markets that we serve is disadvantaged. A lot of information to unwind in all that, Chris. I just think in the end, good for Jim to get access in Chicago.
I hope that CN doesn't have buyer's remorse in the future, what they gave up versus what they got. I don't think they got a lot, in all honesty. When it comes to the merger side, I think that it's a couple of steps for UP to solve a very problematic merger application. It preserves competition, perhaps, on those two-to-ones and three-to-twos, where operationally feasible. That helps take a couple of steps, miles and miles and miles more of problematic steps. When it comes to access for CN coming to Kansas City, we've already got four railroads running between Kansas City and St. Louis. I'd say welcome to the party. Come ready to compete, because we will. We're not afraid of competition. We never have been.
As long as we do our jobs and we leverage the benefits of our single line route, I'll stand that against CN. I'll stand that against UP. John, any commercial comments?
I just would add on the, Chris, maybe the Mexico piece. As Keith said, we're not afraid to compete, but I don't view this as very different than maybe when CN had a connection and used the route over Jackson with the legacy KCS to get to Mexico. Then they pivoted to create a route over Chicago with the UP, I think a Falcon or something, to run down to Mexico. Now they've extended their haul in another interchange to Memphis to get down to Mexico. It didn't change our approach three years ago when they put it in place. I think we've demonstrated really strong growth on our MMX, and it's all on the backs of the service. I just kind of view it as we've got a product that can't be replicated in the marketplace.
It's the reason why in 2023, there was $100 million of what I consider we call land bridge business flowing between Mexico and Canada. I see us at $600 million by the end of this year and a path to get to $1 billion. It's just a unique product that we're able to offer. I'm sure there's going to be certain customers out there that the CN-UP product makes sense for, on the FXE or into certain markets. That's fine. I stand by that. Keith's comments on Kansas City ring true to me. There's four railroads that come in and out of here existing today from and to the east that we compete for business. Even I think back to when we were competing for the KCS and that was identified as such a big opportunity inlaid by our competitor.
Frankly, we just haven't seen it. If they bring to light a big opportunity, it'll be an opportunity for us to compete against it. We look forward to that opportunity.
There's one more clarifying point that I think is important to understand, too. When John speaks to the business that we've won, we've competed for, and that we continue to see a path to grow to, from that $600 million to $1 billion over the future years, the lion's share of that traffic is coming from or going to Western Canada, not Eastern Canada. Not saying that some's not from the east, but the biggest opportunity is in the west. From a network standpoint, CN is dramatically disadvantaged to our network from those western Canadian origins, given that we go through Minneapolis, St. Paul, and down the west side of the Mississippi. For them to get it to Mexico, whether it's over Chicago, whether it's over Memphis, whether it's over Jackson, they got to go to Chicago. They got to go east to come back west.
That disadvantages route miles to us materially in a significant way.
Very helpful perspective. Appreciate it, guys. Thank you.
Yep.
Your next question comes from Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Okay, thank you. John, you have been able to kind of deliver somewhere in the $300 million-$350 million of kind of pipeline synergy revenues for the last couple of years. You sound like you're bullish on that pipeline is going into 2027. Can you frame what type of opportunity you see, kind of idiosyncratic to some of these commercial efforts you're working on? Can we assume that this will continue to kind of play out in a similar fashion that it has done in the last couple of years going to 2027? A quick follow-up to Nadeem, just you mentioned several notable expense item. I'm just wondering if you can kind of elaborate a little bit what these are and how should we think about the expense bridge as we go into the second half of the year?
Yeah. I'll start there, Fadi. Thanks for the question. I do see a really good run rate to get to that, let's call it $1.4 billion-$1.5 billion in synergies as we close out this year. You're right, that's about $300 million, well, actually more than a $300 million step up in that area. I would call out that it's really coming from all the lines of business, but as I particularly look, let's say, specifically to the next 6-18 months, we've just seen tremendous growth in our intermodal synergies specific to that and also our grain. We really didn't scratch the surface, and I'm going to say the early days in terms of leveraging this franchise in our grain network.
I think what we've seen with the strong crop in Canada, actually a strong crop in our upper U.S. network, as we've got deeper into the shipping season, we've seen more and more markets across our network materialize. That's been strong. I want to say we're up 60%-70% if you look at grain out of our northern territory down into Mexico or the southern U.S. markets. Again, I can tell you I'm proud of where we've moved that needle this year, but I still think we're kind of in the early innings of really kind of figuring out those flows and what those cycle times need to be to compete.
Frankly, I think I talked about it just previously, I just spent some time in Mexico looking at these facilities, and the capability to enhance their throughput capabilities that'll drive volume growth is still out there. As much as I'm proud of that we've taken the MMX service, Fadi, to about 70% capacity levels, I'm still challenging the team, particularly in this freight environment right now, of how we begin to push the envelope to what a second train pair could look like on the MMX. That's really without not a whole lot of reefer growth that we're still working on that we're just seeing ramp up in that space. I'm optimistic about that.
Maybe I'd also point out is as much as, and I think Keith mentioned it, as much as I'm pleased about our closed-loop automotive program, there's still some outliers out there that I expect to make headway in over the next 6-12 months in contracts that I think will also look to leverage the benefits we can provide with that. Those are kind of the call-out areas. Maybe, Nadeem?
Yeah. Fadi, I'd just point out a couple of things. Casualty, stock comp, and incentive comp were about a $0.05 headwind versus a year ago, maybe around close to about 150 basis points. I think about with those headwinds, if they weren't there, probably closer to a 60% OR. I'll just leave it at that.
Thank you.
Thanks, Fadi.
Your next question comes from Jonathan Chappell with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Thank you. Good afternoon. Mark, John just laid out a pretty broad-based growth plan. I know a lot of it's unique to CP, but it feels like for the first time since the merger, you've had some real strong macro tailwinds that are building as well. I know you're going to add a little headcount in the second half of the year, but below the volume growth expectations. When you think about the next couple of years and the resources, you've created a lot of productivity thus far the last couple of years, but how do you think about aligning resources with the type of growth profile that John's laying out over a two to three-year period?
Well, I think it's just the value of how we do business with CSX. John's talking about what he's doing in the coming months. We're in the background understanding what kind of crews we need, what kind of locomotives we need to put in front of it, containers, boxcars, whatever it may be. We're steadily looking at the demand of equipment, people. On top of that, I'm looking at synergies of the agreement that we just signed, I say signed, that we just implemented
With the south of what I would say south of Heath, near Oklahoma, down to the border at Laredo, which is the old MidSouth agreement, which I'll probably get into too much detail, but it's an agreement that I worked up under. It's almost like an hourly agreement. We talk about an hourly agreement, it's a daily agreement. That would take care of some of the headcount that we need. We'll get some synergies plus headcount out of that, and then we can use that headcount for the future business that John wants to do with grain. We still have opportunities with doubling up trains. We've got some opportunities with GrainLink that we'll continue to work through. That's just the southern part. Obviously, we have the hourly agreement just on the north end of North Dakota, Minneapolis, all those locations.
We have workday schedules we could change with those to add people quickly, or at least time of day quickly. That's what I would say. We'll stay right out in front of John, and we'll communicate constantly, to understand what's next, what's the opportunity. Good news is that just don't come on board tomorrow. I mean, we've got plenty of time to plan, and we have locomotives that's coming on board as well.
Thank you.
Yeah.
Your next question comes from Brian Ossenbeck of JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Hey, afternoon. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe John, for you, can you just give a little bit of commentary on yields here? I know the headline number is a bit noisy with fuel and FX, maybe some near-term commentary to help set the stage for the third quarter. Where are underlying core renewals coming in? Do you still have potentially some repricing or length of haul opportunities that are still kind of trickling through as you get more of the legacy KCS and CP put together? Is that pretty much done? Just want to hear a little bit more about that, especially in this stronger truckload environment. Thanks.
We're still seeing a pretty good length of haul, Brian, in enhancement. I think this quarter we're up year-over-year about 3%. I talked about some other land bridge opportunities and where I see some synergy growth yet to come. Those are pretty big length of haul opportunities that are needle movers. There's some of that noise, I think, good noise, still at play that sometimes can impact our mix a little bit on that longer length of haul business. Pricing, I'm super pleased. We haven't taken our foot off the gas for, I don't know, it's been a couple of years now that we've been on sort of the what I would consider right at or the higher end of our guidance.
I think at our Investor Day, we guided to 3%-4% over that multi-year plan. I would say we've been at the top end, exceeded. Right now we're probably right in that exact range. We're not taking our foot off the gas there. I expect that to even potentially accelerate as we see what's kind of going on in the trucking space and as we all watch inflation over the coming years. When I look at it, I think about the cents per RTM like this. I mentioned where renewals came in. Mix was a little bit, let's call it a point or two of a headwind. Kind of you back into the balance was fuel and FX, Brian.
Thank you, John. Appreciate it.
Yeah. All good.
Your next question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon, guys. Thanks for the time. Keith, I think you might have referenced it earlier indirectly, but I'm just curious how you think the deals or the concessions extracted by CN change your view of any potential concessions you might pursue. Does it put you in a stronger position, a weaker position, or is it sort of nil or not really that relevant in how you think about it?
Yeah, I don't think anything that CN's done with UP is relevant to the things that we will ask for, as it's changed our math at all. Yeah, no impact.
Appreciate it.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hey, thank you for taking the question. Keith, sorry to stick on the topic. I guess more broadly, though, do you believe that what UP and CN has done has put this deal on any better competitive platform? I guess I heard a little bit of contention there on the expanded competitive gateway pricing. I don't know if you maybe want to elaborate on that?
Yeah. Listen, I'm going to wait and let the regulator get into the weeds, but I'll stay at a high level as best as I possibly can. I think the simple answer is no. I don't think it changes the math. I think that I'm going to give credit where credit is due. I think it's a few steps forward in a positive direction versus where they were. I think it at least signals a bit of a realization that kind of their railroad empire building plans are going to have to bring more to the table to even be considered as a prima facie case. I think that's important. I think they did address, kind of back to what Steve said, I missed this point.
They did address our concerns relative to undue control in the KCT terminal as well as the TRRA. I thank them for taking that seriously and addressing that.
Outside of that, the problems that were there before. I look at it this way. I look at it in a lens, some would say I'm biased. I would say I'm biased by experience. I have navigated, and I was shaped by the experience that we went through in our own merger application and process. The knowledge that we gained navigating the merger process of the rules, the regulations, the statutes, the old rules, the new rules, coupled with the knowledge of how, in our experience. How I read the rules and interpret the rules, which has been truly shaped and impacted by how the STB members have done the same. Going back and reading the context of why the rules were written, going back and reading the hearings, going back and listening and thinking and reflecting on Linda Morgan's words.
It's the lens that matters when you interpret these facts. Then finally, the last lens I look at is kind of the applicants, the behavior. Past, present, future, integration history, day-to-day anti-competitive behavior or not. Is this an entity that when they present their facts to the customer, present their facts to the railroads, present their facts or their counter arguments to the regulator, is it as they say, or is it as they believe? There's often a difference in that. Your truth, my truth, and the truth. I think this regulatory body's going to get to the truth. The truth says these facts are problematic. What was true before their supplemental submission is significant reduction in competitive options. Their enhancement to CGP is some movement. I'll give them that, but it's temporary, and it's not inclusive.
If it's needed at all, is it not needed forever? If it's needed to solve a formula that says you must enhance competition, just stating your long-term solution to enhance competition, defining it as single line service. If you go back and read the regulations and the hearings, that is not enough. Those aren't my words, that's Linda Morgan's words. It's important, but it's not the only sole solution, and it will not solve enhanced competition in and of by itself. Again, her words, not my words. Still creates significant monopolistic like, those are my words, market concentration. Still and now even more significant operational risk because now, we've got The J in play. Still significant concerns about anti-competitive behavior, past and present. I don't think any of us would argue the ball about eventual consolidation. If this merger gets approved, that boulder is rolling. It's undeniable.
If you read the application, the supplemental, read Jim's letter. If I've ever read a letter that said, "Not only is this one good, the second one's better, it's great for America." We need to go to and serve the public's interest in America. We need to be a two rail network operation. That's it. I shudder thinking about that as a human and as a consumer. I was reminded of the weight of this decision yesterday afternoon when I went home and I looked at my phone, it's topical because I give Jim credit, he uses a lot of analogies about flying through Chicago, and airlines and direct flights. When I read American Airlines grounded. System-wide, regional airlines, mainline airlines, nobody can move. What about a world when only an American or United exists, and one of the two is grounded? What happens?
That's mass chaos in airlines. Now, apply that same solution to railroads. You got one railroad that handles 40% of every move. Now, forget about the misleading comments about GTMs and worth saying. No, come on. A heavily weighted railroad that moves a lot of grain and coal, their GTMs are going to be naturally more than a railroad weighted more at the intermodal. News alert, a coal car and a grain car weighs a whole lot more than, say, 10 or 11 intermodal cars. That's misleading. It's 43 states. In Jim's perfect world or UP's perfect world, it's two railroads. One of the two or both of the two, because of a computer glitch gets grounded, that is too big to fail. I can talk to each of you all day long, and perhaps some of you here, ask and answer.
I'm not going to convince you, but that's okay. I don't need to convince the STB. This STB body, I know from experience, they understand the gravity of this decision. They understand those regulations better than any of us do. They understand the intent, they understand their mandate, they have the authority to make the right decision. They have the independence to weigh the facts. Again, I'll say this. If you're a shipper, if you're a concerned party that's going to comment, pay attention to what's going on. Don't get led down a false narrative. Do your math, do your own homework, form your own opinions, file your comments. State your facts because that's ultimately what the record is going to be decided upon. If those facts are known and understood, nothing that UP just submitted changes it.
The problematic facts, they lead us to a place that is not in the best interest of the public, not in the best interest of this network. That's the way I feel. That's what I believe based on my lens.
Thank you, Keith.
Thank you.
Your next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hey, great. Good afternoon. Hey, Keith, you actually started out almost complimentary of the deal of what Jim was doing. I would've said almost supportive, but I think your last answer suggests perhaps still not. He did toss in there mixing up CPKC in the mix with BN and CSX. I'd love to hear your thoughts there. Nadeem, did you just end your answer there with the 60% OR? Was that suggesting your launching point as to what we should look for into the second half? Maybe a sub-60% in the second half. Is that what you were throwing out there?
Yeah, that's fair. I think we're going to see sequential improvement in cents per RTM. We're going to see significant acceleration in volumes compared to the first half, overall the revenues are going to be better, and we're going to see operating leverage coming out of that. My expectation would be to have less casualty expense than we had in the first half of the year. I think some of those items can be very accretive to the earnings and the OR.
Ken, to your question, bottom line up front, I'm adamantly opposed to additional rail consolidation, for all those reasons I've talked about. If it's forced, we're not going to stand still. We can't stand still and compete to our best. I'm not going to tell you what partner. I can make a value proposition case with a host of partners. Rest assured this industry won't sit still. If UP and NS come together, it's a matter of time. There's going to be additional consolidation. There has to be to be able to compete against that Goliath that would be created. In any of those scenarios, this team, this network offers pretty compelling value.
Thanks, Keith. Thanks, Nadeem.
Yeah, thanks, Ken.
Your next question comes from Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks very much, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Keith, you and BN have both argued that progress can be made, agreements can be signed without the need for mergers, and certainly this deal between CN and Union Pacific is not contingent on the merger. It happens immediately. I'm referring to the EJ&E and the Eagle Pass through Memphis deal. Does this prompt you now or maybe you've already been doing it, but couldn't you now or will you look to cement your own deals, your own agreements with either the BN or like you have with SMX through CSX? Is there opportunity to add on to that with CSX, and is there any opportunities that you see when you look at your routing where track swapping or track right swapping with the BN might make sense as well?
Yeah, Walter, undeniably in either case, when you've got two willing parties, you can do a lot of things. I've looked at our network. There's a menu of options. There's things we can do with BN, there's things we can do with CSX, outside of a merger that quite frankly, we could put a pretty compelling product in the marketplace to go head to head. Is it going to be single-line service? No. Is there going to be some advantages to that? Yes. Yeah, again, if this thing becomes a foregone conclusion, then you're going to see motivation increase to be able to do those things. I think right now people are waiting to see this industry outside of UP and NS and maybe now CN. They didn't want a merger.
If you talk to the customers, I don't care what CN agreed to with UP, what UP's agreeing to with CN, what enhancements they made to CGP, put it all in the same basket. I don't think you're going to have a run to the bank or a run to the STB saying, "Gosh, well, this is the best thing since sliced bread. We're going to support." This is a forever decision. You don't unwind this thing. Again, if it gets wound up, we've got a responsibility to respond, and we will. As a result of this, we've never been closer to BNSF. We've never been closer to CSX. We've never developed the market intelligence that we're developing now in the motivation and the route options to present some pretty compelling value propositions on the table. Again, we won't sit still in a merger environment.
We won't sit still short of a merger. Good can come out of this. The best outcome is no merger. The best outcome is perhaps in the absence of a merger, UP and CN can do some good things together to create some value for the industry and to create some value for their customers. There's a lot of traffic out there to move. In turn, you're going to see CP do things with CSX, with BN, BN-CSX. It can create a whole lot of different parties because people are thinking a whole lot different than they ever have. Those outcomes can occur, and UP just showed us they could, not that they didn't already know already or haven't done so already in the absence of a merger, which is exactly what the regulations require you to do before they will approve a merger. Side note.
Emphasis added, mine.
Appreciate the color, Keith. Thank you.
Thank you, Walter.
Your next question comes from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, this is Madison on for Ravi. Thanks for taking my question. We're just wondering how you guys are thinking about capacity in your network as the up cycle comes.
Yeah, I think I'll be quick with that answer. Mark, if you want to add. If you keep in mind that our merger application required we make some pretty significant investments to prepare for growth. We have done exactly that over the last three years. What we did not anticipate when we put the railroads together was an economic recession. We're kind of built ahead for future growth. We're in a very good position relative to locomotives, relative to car capacity, relative to track capacity. The only thing we need to flex up on when the business and the growth comes, is add incremental headcount.
Yeah, I would say incremental headcount from the agreement that we put together. We've unlocked Shreveport, Louisiana, to where we can go in all directions with one agreement. Again, we've got $275 million from the STB promises that we put together for them. We've got the connection toward CSX, where we spent a lot of money, 49-mi-an-hour track that unlocks a lot of capacity going east. Again, we've said down in Mexico, we'd spend $75 million on top of the bridge that we just built, that KCS built, that we finished. Yeah, capacity's not going to be an issue. Again, in different areas, John and I will stay in front of that regardless of where we go with the business. We're committed to do that.
Yeah. We're positioned for growth at low incremental cost.
Got it. Thank you, guys.
Your next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.
Hey, thanks. Maybe just a bigger picture version of that question. I think back to the Analyst Day, we were supposed to get a lot of revenue growth with a lot of operating leverage and margin improvement and mid-teens, high-teens type earnings growth. John, I thought your slide about the compounding volume growth was helpful, and it's been good, but it probably hasn't been as good as you thought at the Analyst Day. I think to your point of that last question, Keith, the macro environment's just been more challenging.
I guess ultimately what I'm trying to ask is, do you think we're at an inflection point where you still have some of the synergy opportunity plus now maybe a more supportive macro and now the buyback is kicking in where it's all going to start coming together and we're going to see more of a meaningful acceleration earnings growth back to what you thought it was going to be? Is that kind of where you think we are now?
Yeah, I'd say it's undeniable since the April of 2023 that the freight environment is about as bad as we never thought it could be as bad as it was. Despite that, and that was really the point of that slide, was to say despite that, we've been able to stack pretty impressive growth up with not a supportive environment. Now looking ahead, I do believe although all of our growth and a lot of our growth was supported by synergies in the new products we put in place, as I said, we're still in the mid innings of a lot of those opportunities. I think your point is really spot on.
You continue at the pace of product development, filling in the capacity that Keith and Mark just spoke about, we start to get a little bit of a tailwind in some of these areas. I think that becomes very compelling.
Nadeem, do you think the operating leverage accelerates with that?
Yeah, absolutely. I think, Scott, as you know, the last few years, I think the industry as a whole has been expecting a much more supportive macro. I think we've learned that you can't hope for that macro to recover, and we've taken a more conservative approach, and we've talked a lot about resources and capital investment, et cetera. We were on the front end of that at the beginning of our day one, three years ago. If you look at where we are this year, I think headcount's down 500 people and volumes are up 3%, 4% and accelerating, and we're going to be able to accommodate that growth.
When I look at 2027 and next few years, we can accommodate it with the capital envelope that we talked about of CAD 2.6 billion, CAD 2.7 billion, and that's with a weaker Canadian dollar that has an impact on capital. Overall, we can accommodate this growth and with the capital plan that we have, it's going to generate significant amount of free cash as you've seen so far this year, and that's going to help accelerate earnings. To me, the operating leverage story is just beginning and you're going to see it in the back half of this year, and you've seen it so far in Q2 as well.
Thank you, guys.
Thanks, Scott.
Yeah.
Your next question comes from Konark Gupta with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good afternoon, team. Keith, when you sit down with your customers and stakeholders, do you feel that they are quite distracted by the ongoing industry developments? I'm referring to everything from the UP-NS merger to the CN-UP deals as well as the potential downstream effects that everyone's talking about. It was very powerful. Thanks.
I think probably the way we all feel about this thing. We've been dealing with this for a while. It requires a lot of attention. All these what-if scenarios. Whatever it is, just getting on with it and getting to a point where we can kind of lock and focus on what we can control, and there's not all these variables, I think is going to be well-received. The customers, quite frankly— John, you can provide a bit more color here. Everyone that I've engaged with, I've, again, not had one that said, "We want more consolidation." They've said, "We want to protect competitive options. We want optionality. We like the ability to create competitive tension between two railroads when it comes to pricing and capacity in our capital decisions and our shipping decisions." I think that's been a common theme that's resonated with us.
Without a doubt, Konark. Since, really, COVID, where we've experienced sort of the increased fragileness of some of these supply chains, our customers are looking for more options. Frankly, that is why we garnered so much support in putting CP and KCS together on our journey, because we truly did enhance competition and open new markets. I just think, to your question, it is a distraction. I think there's a lot of narratives out there, and our customers are trying to figure out what is right and what is the correct source of the truth. Frankly, they've seen the benefits we've been able to create. I also think are questioning, are they really going to get enhanced competition out of what UP and NS are proposing?
That's a key difference, John, what you just said. Our merger brought additional options to the table, which included a never-before-available additional single-line opportunity. For instance, from Chicago to Mexico. In our case, beyond. It was all additive too. Nothing was diluted. There were no options taken off the table. That's completely different than the beast that we're dealing with now. It's a substitution for, and according to the applicants, it's better than. But if you're the shipper, it still means less options. Do you have the same options tomorrow that you have today? In full form, and if it gets approved, the answer is unequivocally no. You don't. Customers, by and large, after all the years of consolidation in this industry, that does not resonate with a customer when you tell them they have fewer options.
I don't care what therapy you give them, they have the memories and the trauma of the prior consolidations in this industry. Some of the worst trauma, I'm sorry, UP, you caused it. The thought of giving them more power and being exposed to that again requires a therapist in some cases. I say that in jest, but I'm not kidding. The transportation decision-makers that suffered through that 30 years ago, I've been here 35, I've been railroading 35, Jim's been railroading 45. A lot of those decision-makers are in senior positions, and they still lose sleep at night thinking about those integrations. Operationally or commercially, customer, you have fewer options, it doesn't resonate. With a very small population, they might be uniquely advantaged. It's a small population. It's single-line service at what cost?
We never tipped the scale at our combination. We never threatened that. We just added one to the table. We didn't take anything away.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good afternoon. John just had, I guess, maybe a couple for you on the market. How do you think about coal, I guess it gets less worse through the quarter? Is there a point where you say, "Okay, this is the new run rate for coal?" That it's like, "Hey, the mines just can't do what they used to." Are you optimistic that it gets to 2027, you get back to kind of where they were? I guess with ECP, that's been pretty good, but I think refined products to Mexico may be weak. I don't know. Any kind of, I guess, thoughts on those two. Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Tom. Yeah, definitely Q2 was what we are looking at as the worst of the worst in terms of impacts to our revenue and our volumes related to the coal. I think Q3 feels like maybe Q1, progressively it gets a little better to close out the year. We're staying really close with the customer there. I can tell you they are optimistic around increasing volumes. I would say we've definitely seen an improvement in their production. Our expectation is, I think their view to the mining capability as they look to 2027, is to get back to those type of levels you would have seen last year. I know they want to even grow beyond that. I think your characterization of less worse is probably right as we move into the second half of the year. ECP, you're right.
It's the one area that keeps me up at night is the refined fuels into Mexico. It's a really good piece of business and I guess supply chain solution that we've developed. It really has been pretty well non-existent here for the last six, eight months. We start to see as things sort of improve relative to the situation in the Gulf, we begin to see that open back up a little bit. As soon as things turn again, it closes right back up. I think the good news on that front is we're ready. That supply chain is solid. We've got the customs processes and that in place. As the market shifts and those arbs open back up, I think we'll benefit from that business again. I just can't tell you exactly when that's going to happen.
Yeah. Okay, great. Thank you.
Thanks.
Thanks, Tom.
Your next question comes from Benoit Poirier with Desjardins Bank. Please go ahead.
Yep. Thank you very much, and good afternoon, everyone. Just in terms of assumption, given the movement that we've seen in the FX and fuel, I was wondering if there was any change in your assumption for the year? Maybe specifically for the grain, John. You mentioned, are you counting on a stronger grain crop in the second half to kind of offset the coal weakness, or are you still making a three to five-year average? Thank you.
Yeah. I'll let maybe Nadeem comment on some of the macro assumptions. On the grain front, I think we're pretty optimistic that we're going to close out Q3 on a just sort of continued strength. I think the question will be sort of when exactly the grain harvest comes on. I'll tell you right now, I've seen maybe more bullishness relative to CPKC's specific growing territory. Southern Alberta, Southern Saskatchewan, areas that have even last year weren't great in terms of drought conditions being better. We are optimistic. For the purposes of our Q4, we've sort of modeled what would be the three to five-year average. I'll tell you last year, our volumes did not move at a record pace. We were a little bit slower out of our southern territory, and then that kind of picked up.
Maybe a little bit different than what CN experienced in the fall. Even at that sort of average run rate, we see some uptick in terms of grain helping be supportive in that. Again, we also believe our U.S. franchise has a pretty good outlook on top of that, Benoit.
Benoit, our assumption hasn't changed much off where it was at the beginning of the year. We were closer to CAD 1.38 on currency. We're closer to CAD 1.40, CAD 1.41 recently. Obviously, fuel is very volatile, and there's timing issues related to fuel surcharge and the lag of what comes with the expenses that we hit directly. Overall, our fuel assumption has increased for at least for the next 30-60 days, and we'll see what plays out the rest of the year. We're effectively covered. I would just say that it may impact our operating ratio to an extent, just in terms of the taking on those fuel surcharge revenues at 100% operating ratio and the lag impact, which hopefully will turn become positive by the end of the year.
Very good color. Thank you very much, gents.
Yeah, thanks.
Your next question comes from David Vernon with Bernstein. Your line is open.
Hey, good afternoon, and thanks for fitting me in here. John, maybe as you think about how the business has grown over the last couple of years, can you help us frame what the cross-border Mexico revenue is on a total shipment basis and how much of that is actually going Western Canada or west of Chicago versus Eastern Canada or points in the U.S.? Just trying to get a sense for the revenue that's on the cross-border Mexico stuff, because you guys have delivered a lot on the synergy side with the KC-Mexico. Thanks.
I can frame it up this way, David. Specific to what I consider our land bridge business, I think I guided towards a continual run rate to get to $600 million on that business this year. You should think about, as Keith said earlier, 60%-65% of that is between Western Canada and Mexico, the balance is Eastern Canadian business. I would tell you it's pretty equally spread between whether that's intermodal business, ECP business, automotive business, and grain business. Those are kind of the big four.
Super helpful. Thank you.
Thanks, David.
Thank you. This does conclude our question-and-answer session. I'd be happy to return the call to Mr. Keith Creel.
Hey, thanks, operator. Listen, thanks again for everyone's time. It's a nice, fulsome, robust discussions this afternoon. There's a lot of noise in our industry. There's a lot of noise in the economy, but we think the noise from an economic standpoint is providing a very supportive backdrop that we control what we control. We're set up for a strong second half operationally, commercially, with a bit of strengthening freight market demand at our back. We're focused on executing and meeting or exceeding not only our 2026 guidance, but carrying a whole lot of momentum into 2027. Thank you, and we look forward to sharing our third quarter results.
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-28CP to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?
Zacks
CP to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Offing for the Stock?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City CP is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29, after the market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CP’s second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised southward by 2.2% over the past 60 days to 89 cents per share. The consensus mark indicates a 9.9% increase from the second-quarter 2025 actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $2.91 billion, indicating a 9% increase from the second-quarter 2025 actuals. Canadian Pacific has a discouraging earnings surprise history, wherein its earnings have underperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average miss of 2.26%. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited price-eps-surprise | Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Quote We expect CP’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been adversely impacted by the downturn in the freight market demand and lower volumes. Rising operating expenses, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply-chain disruptions, are likely to have materially affected CP’s performance in the March-end quarter. Carloads from Coal, Forest products, Energy & chemicals and intermodal are expected to have decreased 21.3%, 6%, 6% and 0.9%, respectively, on a year over year basis in the second quarter of 2026. On the contrary, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues ton miles (RTMs) is likely to have improved 3.8% year over year in the to-be-reported quarter. This improvement is expected to have been driven by a rise in freight revenues across key sub-groups like Grain, Potash and Metals, which are anticipated to have increased 19.5%, 10.6% and 5.7%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Canadian Pacific this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. CP has an Earnings ESP of -0.74% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. CP reported unimpressive first-quarter 2026 results, wherein both earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly earnings (excluding 7 cents from non-recurring items) of 76 cents…Read full documentShow less
Canadian Pacific Kansas City CP is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 29, after the market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CP’s second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised southward by 2.2% over the past 60 days to 89 cents per share. The consensus mark indicates a 9.9% increase from the second-quarter 2025 actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 revenues is pegged at $2.91 billion, indicating a 9% increase from the second-quarter 2025 actuals. Canadian Pacific has a discouraging earnings surprise history, wherein its earnings have underperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average miss of 2.26%. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited price-eps-surprise | Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Quote We expect CP’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter to have been adversely impacted by the downturn in the freight market demand and lower volumes. Rising operating expenses, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply-chain disruptions, are likely to have materially affected CP’s performance in the March-end quarter. Carloads from Coal, Forest products, Energy & chemicals and intermodal are expected to have decreased 21.3%, 6%, 6% and 0.9%, respectively, on a year over year basis in the second quarter of 2026. On the contrary, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for total revenues ton miles (RTMs) is likely to have improved 3.8% year over year in the to-be-reported quarter. This improvement is expected to have been driven by a rise in freight revenues across key sub-groups like Grain, Potash and Metals, which are anticipated to have increased 19.5%, 10.6% and 5.7%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Canadian Pacific this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. CP has an Earnings ESP of -0.74% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. CP reported unimpressive first-quarter 2026 results, wherein both earnings and revenues missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Quarterly earnings (excluding 7 cents from non-recurring items) of 76 cents per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents. The bottom line improved 2.7% on a year-over-year basis. Operating revenues of $2.69 billion lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.71 billion. However, the top line improved 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle. Schneider National SNDR has an Earnings ESP of +1.50% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. SNDR is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 30. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings has remained flat at 22 cents over the past 60 days. SNDR’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in one of the preceding four quarters (missing the mark twice and met the mark once in the remaining three quarters). The average miss is 17.97%. Allegiant Travel Company ALGT has an Earnings ESP of +34.29% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. ALGT is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on Aug. 4 The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upwards by more than 100% over the past 60 days to 95 cents. ALGT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (missing the mark in the remaining quarter). The average beat being 21.94%. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) : Free Stock Analysis Report Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) : Free Stock Analysis Report Schneider National, Inc. (SNDR) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research
Investor releaseQuarter not tagged2026-07-24Gear Up for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Q2 Earnings: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics
Zacks
Gear Up for Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Q2 Earnings: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics
Analysts on Wall Street project that Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) will announce quarterly earnings of $0.89 per share in its forthcoming report, representing an increase of 9.9% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $2.91 billion, increasing 9% from the same quarter last year. The current level reflects a downward revision of 0.7% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over this period. Ahead of a company's earnings disclosure, it is crucial to give due consideration to changes in earnings estimates. These revisions serve as a noteworthy factor in predicting potential investor reactions to the stock. Numerous empirical studies consistently demonstrate a strong relationship between trends in earnings estimate revision and the short-term price performance of a stock. While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as indicators of quarterly business performance, exploring analysts' projections for specific key metrics can offer valuable insights. That said, let's delve into the average estimates of some Canadian Pacific Kansas City metrics that Wall Street analysts commonly model and monitor. The consensus estimate for 'Core adjusted operating ratio' stands at 61.6%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 60.7%. The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Carloads - Total' will likely reach 1.15 million. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 1.15 million in the same quarter of the previous year. According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Carloads - Automotive' should come in at 64.07 thousand. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 62.40 thousand in the same quarter of the previous year. Analysts predict that the 'Revenue ton miles (RTMs) - Total' will reach 57.65 billion. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 55.53 billion in the same quarter of the previous year. It is projected by analysts that the 'Revenue ton-miles (RTMs) - Intermodal' will reach 10.27 billion. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 10.26 billion in the same quarter last year. Analysts forecast 'Carloads - Grain' to reach 168.96 thousand. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 142.60 thousand. Based on the collective a…Read full documentShow less
Analysts on Wall Street project that Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) will announce quarterly earnings of $0.89 per share in its forthcoming report, representing an increase of 9.9% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $2.91 billion, increasing 9% from the same quarter last year. The current level reflects a downward revision of 0.7% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the past 30 days. This demonstrates how the analysts covering the stock have collectively reappraised their initial projections over this period. Ahead of a company's earnings disclosure, it is crucial to give due consideration to changes in earnings estimates. These revisions serve as a noteworthy factor in predicting potential investor reactions to the stock. Numerous empirical studies consistently demonstrate a strong relationship between trends in earnings estimate revision and the short-term price performance of a stock. While investors typically use consensus earnings and revenue estimates as indicators of quarterly business performance, exploring analysts' projections for specific key metrics can offer valuable insights. That said, let's delve into the average estimates of some Canadian Pacific Kansas City metrics that Wall Street analysts commonly model and monitor. The consensus estimate for 'Core adjusted operating ratio' stands at 61.6%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 60.7%. The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Carloads - Total' will likely reach 1.15 million. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 1.15 million in the same quarter of the previous year. According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Carloads - Automotive' should come in at 64.07 thousand. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 62.40 thousand in the same quarter of the previous year. Analysts predict that the 'Revenue ton miles (RTMs) - Total' will reach 57.65 billion. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 55.53 billion in the same quarter of the previous year. It is projected by analysts that the 'Revenue ton-miles (RTMs) - Intermodal' will reach 10.27 billion. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 10.26 billion in the same quarter last year. Analysts forecast 'Carloads - Grain' to reach 168.96 thousand. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 142.60 thousand. Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Carloads - Coal' should arrive at 93.33 thousand. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 118.60 thousand. Analysts expect 'Carloads - Potash' to come in at 51.75 thousand. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 47.40 thousand. Analysts' assessment points toward 'Carloads - Fertilizers and sulphur' reaching 16.25 thousand. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 15.60 thousand. The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Carloads - Forest products' of 30.84 thousand. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 32.80 thousand. The average prediction of analysts places 'Carloads - Energy, chemicals and plastics' at 134.12 thousand. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 142.70 thousand in the same quarter last year. The consensus among analysts is that 'Carloads - Metals, minerals and consumer products' will reach 132.48 thousand. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 125.40 thousand in the same quarter of the previous year. View all Key Company Metrics for Canadian Pacific Kansas City here>>> Over the past month, Canadian Pacific Kansas City shares have recorded returns of +6.1% versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.6% change. Based on its Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), CP will likely underperform the overall market in the upcoming period. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> . Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

