B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
COTY
CotyBNYSE / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q4 beat, improved sequential sell-in/sell-out alignment, $348 million of FY26 free cash flow, and planned use of Gucci proceeds for debt reduction and core-brand reinvestment provide a stabilization case. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-19]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Consumer Beauty strategic-review decisions and execution benefits remain uncertain.
Momentum
88
Value
65
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.68 · Bull $3.20 · Bear $2.05Analysis 2026-08-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-19 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $2.65
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d -
Value65 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Consumer Beauty strategic-review decisions and execution benefits remain uncertain.
- • FY27 near-term sales and EBITDA pressure during the transition year.
- • FY27 is explicitly a transition year.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-19
Q4 FY26 results beat expectations but remained mixed
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
88
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
65
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 88.3 / Value 64.8 / Sentiment 61.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$2.68
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.05
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-19
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-19
Market Cap
$2.35B
Beta
0.94
Shares Out
880.47M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.8
P/S (TTM)
0.48
P/FCF (TTM)
9.72
Rev YoY
+1.3%
EPS YoY
+98.2%
Gross Margin
+58.5%
Op Margin
+5.5%
Net Debt
$3.25B
Current Ratio
0.75
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data