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COP

ConocoPhillipsC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print showed strong earnings and cash generation, record Permian production, higher realized prices, doubled repurchases, and reaffirmed full-year guidance. Asset sales, LNG expansion, and planned portfolio additions support the long-term capital-allocation case.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-30.
What can break
Adjusted production declined 4% year over year, with Middle East conflict effects and higher Surmont royalties cited as offsets to Lower 48 growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
84
Value
56
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $130.00 · Bull $145.00 · Bear $100.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
76 · Strong watchlist
Next 2026-11-05 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-31 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $152.67
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d -7.1
Value56 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -0.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Earnings surprise screen
76Strong watchlist2026-11-05 bmo
View setup

COP has the clearest estimate-based upside signal in this batch: Zacks reported a recent upward EPS revision and +4.50% Earnings ESP, with revenue growth projected at 17.5%; rising oil prices support the setup. The stock showed positive short-term strength and a strong Oct. 30 close, but recent volume did not reach 1.5x normal and the commodity-sensitive outlook leaves meaningful execution and macro risk.

Screen as of 2026-10-31. Window 2026-11-02 to 2026-11-06.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-30.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · BMO.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 76 / strong watchlist.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted production declined 4% year over year, with Middle East conflict effects and higher Surmont royalties cited as offsets to Lower 48 growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Commodity prices remain a major earnings driver; the company attributed the year-over-year earnings increase primarily to higher realized prices. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • The earnings improvement was primarily price-driven while adjusted production declined year over year.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05 · BMO

Q2 2026 earnings beat with full-year guidance reaffirmed

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
84
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.1
Δ21d
+9.7
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-15.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 83.7 / Value 56.2 / Sentiment 51.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$130.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$180.24B
Beta
0.32
Shares Out
1.2B
P/E (TTM)
14.0
P/S (TTM)
2.05
P/FCF (TTM)
37.90
Rev YoY
+37.7%
EPS YoY
+106.8%
Gross Margin
+27.2%
Op Margin
+22.1%
Net Debt
$17.35B
Current Ratio
1.54
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data