B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
COMP
CompassCNYSE / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The company source supports a constructive operating case: Q2 revenue and adjusted EBITDA exceeded guidance, brokerage GTV grew 15.9% pro forma versus 6% market growth, transactions grew 7.4% versus 3.5% market growth, agent retention improved to 95.5%, and synergy actioning accelerated. The release also provided Q3 guidance and maintained full-year positive free cash flow guidance.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
What can break
Brokerage volumes remain sensitive to housing-market conditions, mortgage rates, inventory, and transaction activity.
Momentum
38
Value
50
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $12.50 · Bull $16.50 · Bear $9.25Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.27
Why
Momentum38 · Δ7d -38.7
Value50 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +1.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Brokerage volumes remain sensitive to housing-market conditions, mortgage rates, inventory, and transaction activity.
- • CEO open-market selling is a modest supply and sentiment overhang, though it is not direct evidence of operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-05]
- • The market may demand proof that the Anywhere integration and synergy targets convert into durable free cash flow while the company carries $3.14 billion of long-term debt.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 earnings beat with forward guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
38
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-38.7
Δ21d
-56.2
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
+23.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 38.1 / Value 50.1 / Sentiment 69.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$9.51B
Beta
2.53
Shares Out
767.64M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-119.0
P/S (TTM)
0.92
P/FCF (TTM)
32.48
Rev YoY
+109.1%
EPS YoY
+64.0%
Gross Margin
+9.4%
Op Margin
-0.2%
Net Debt
$277.2M
Current Ratio
1.06
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data