B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
COLL
Collegium PharmaceuticalBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
ADHD diversification is gaining traction: Q2 JORNAY PM revenue rose 41%, prescriber reach expanded, and AZSTARYS added a complementary product to the commercial platform. Sustained prescription growth could support a rerating from the depressed post-earnings level.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
AZSTARYS integration and commercial execution may not produce the expected prescription acceleration.
Momentum
18
Value
71
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $23.25 · Bull $30.00 · Bear $16.50Analysis 2026-09-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $49.00
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d -4.1
Value71 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +1.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AZSTARYS integration and commercial execution may not produce the expected prescription acceleration.
- • Further acquisitions or business-development spending could introduce leverage, integration or capital-allocation risk.
- • The secondary earnings context reported a revenue miss, substantial post-print share-price weakness and pressure on NUCYNTA economics.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-15
Q3 ADHD portfolio execution
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
18
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
+9.2
Value
71
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.3
Δ21d
-12.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 18.3 / Value 70.9 / Sentiment 56.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-16. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$755.62M
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
32.56M
P/E (TTM)
28.5
P/S (TTM)
1.91
P/FCF (TTM)
4.99
Rev YoY
+6.3%
EPS YoY
-234.6%
Gross Margin
+60.0%
Op Margin
+20.1%
Net Debt
$529.9M
Current Ratio
1.03
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data