B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
COLL
Collegium PharmaceuticalANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
JORNAY PM growth, AZSTARYS contribution, expanded ADHD commercial coverage, and a higher reported full-year revenue guidance midpoint could support a rerating if back-to-school demand validates the portfolio strategy.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
AZSTARYS integration and demand conversion remain early-stage after the acquisition.
Momentum
2
Value
72
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $27.00 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-09-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $48.86
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d -0.1
Value72 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment80 · Δ7d -11.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bearish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -11.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AZSTARYS integration and demand conversion remain early-stage after the acquisition.
- • Back-to-school prescription growth may not meet expectations for JORNAY PM and AZSTARYS.
- • The Q2 revenue result reportedly missed consensus despite an adjusted-EPS beat, while NUCYNTA pricing pressure and weaker-than-expected EBITDA guidance create execution and margin risks.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 earnings established ADHD momentum but exposed pain-franchise pressure
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
2
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-3.9
Value
72
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.8
Δ21d
+7.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 2.4 / Value 72.0 / Sentiment 80.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$27.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$913.84M
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
32.56M
P/E (TTM)
28.5
P/S (TTM)
1.91
P/FCF (TTM)
4.99
Rev YoY
+6.3%
EPS YoY
-234.6%
Gross Margin
+60.0%
Op Margin
+20.1%
Net Debt
$529.9M
Current Ratio
1.03
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data