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COIN

Coinbase GlobalA
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Coinbase gained crypto trading-volume market share in Q2 despite a weaker market, generated $555 million of subscription-and-services revenue, and reported prediction markets above a $100 million annualized revenue run rate. Expense reductions, remaining buyback capacity and growth in derivatives, stablecoins and newer products could produce substantial operating leverage when crypto activity recovers.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
CLARITY Act failure, delay or an unfavorable final framework could prolong regulatory uncertainty and constrain product execution.
Momentum
71
Value
50
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $200.00 · Bull $230.00 · Bear $135.00Analysis 2026-09-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $200.29
Why
Momentum71 · Δ7d +15.7
Value50 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment85 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • CLARITY Act failure, delay or an unfavorable final framework could prolong regulatory uncertainty and constrain product execution.
  • • Crypto spot volumes, asset prices and volatility can cause abrupt transaction-revenue and earnings swings; Q2 market spot volume declined 25% sequentially. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
  • • Q2 total revenue declined 14% sequentially to $1.22 billion, transaction revenue fell 21%, adjusted EBITDA dropped to $208 million and adjusted net loss was $105 million.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

Q3 trading and recurring-revenue checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
71
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.7
Δ21d
+57.8
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 71.0 / Value 49.5 / Sentiment 85.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-12. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$230.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$39.72B
Beta
3.71
Shares Out
263.84M
P/E (TTM)
22.1
P/S (TTM)
8.96
P/FCF (TTM)
63.48
Rev YoY
-60.9%
EPS YoY
-126.6%
Gross Margin
+60.3%
Op Margin
-37.6%
Net Debt
-$4.1B
Current Ratio
2.42
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data