B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$450.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
COHR
CoherentCNYSE / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The primary earnings release supports a constructive operating thesis: accelerating revenue, margin expansion, strong Q1 FY27 guidance, and management confidence in AI-driven optical demand and capacity investment. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Capacity expansion or manufacturing yield improvements may lag customer demand.
Momentum
31
Value
42
Sentiment
71
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $390.00 · Bull $450.00 · Bear $270.00Analysis 2026-08-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $415.56
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d -3.7
Value42 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment71 · Δ7d -4.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capacity expansion or manufacturing yield improvements may lag customer demand.
- • Forward non-GAAP guidance is not quantitatively reconciled to GAAP measures in the company release.
- • The post-print reaction was reportedly weaker than the fundamental result, suggesting expectations were high.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-12
Q4 FY26 results and Q1 FY27 guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
31
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.7
Δ21d
+3.4
Value
42
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
71
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.0
Δ21d
-3.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 30.6 / Value 41.6 / Sentiment 70.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$390.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$270.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$68.78B
Beta
1.86
Shares Out
195.83M
P/E (TTM)
304.9
P/S (TTM)
4.85
P/FCF (TTM)
469.80
Rev YoY
+33.7%
EPS YoY
-243.6%
Gross Margin
+38.4%
Op Margin
+13.8%
Net Debt
$1.53B
Current Ratio
2.43
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data