B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$450.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
COHR
CoherentBNYSE / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The primary earnings release supports a constructive operating thesis: accelerating revenue, margin expansion, strong Q1 FY27 guidance, and management confidence in AI-driven optical demand and capacity investment. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-12]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-04 · AMC.
What can break
Capacity expansion or manufacturing yield improvements may lag customer demand.
Momentum
13
Value
42
Sentiment
81
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $390.00 · Bull $450.00 · Bear $270.00Analysis 2026-08-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
36 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-11-04 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-29 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $402.00
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d -11.8
Value42 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment81 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Earnings surprise screen
36Non-qualifying2026-11-04 amc
COHR's October 26-28 rebound lifted the close to $239.59, with a strong October 27 close location, and its prior company guidance described substantial growth and margin expansion. However, verified pre-event positive estimate revisions/revenue upside and a recent 1.5x volume session are absent; the tape also includes a sharp October 22 decline. It remains a non-qualifying partial setup.
Screen as of 2026-10-29. Window 2026-10-29 to 2026-11-04.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-04 · AMC.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 36 / non-qualifying.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capacity expansion or manufacturing yield improvements may lag customer demand.
- • Forward non-GAAP guidance is not quantitatively reconciled to GAAP measures in the company release.
- • The post-print reaction was reportedly weaker than the fundamental result, suggesting expectations were high.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-04 · AMC
Q4 FY26 results and Q1 FY27 guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.8
Δ21d
-67.5
Value
42
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
81
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+22.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 13.2 / Value 42.2 / Sentiment 81.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$390.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$270.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$46.43B
Beta
1.86
Shares Out
196.93M
P/E (TTM)
304.9
P/S (TTM)
4.85
P/FCF (TTM)
469.80
Rev YoY
+33.7%
EPS YoY
-243.6%
Gross Margin
+38.4%
Op Margin
+13.8%
Net Debt
$1.53B
Current Ratio
2.43
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data