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CNX

CNX ResourcesB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull read is that CNX converted a stronger gas backdrop into a sharp earnings rebound, $139M of Q1 free cash flow, and lower net debt while keeping production and capital plans stable. If realized gas prices remain supportive, the market could look through the modest guidance trim and reward the company for cash generation durability.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
2026 free cash flow guidance was reduced to about $525M from about $550M, showing forward sensitivity to lower open-volume gas price assumptions.
Momentum
41
Value
67
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $43.00 · Bear $31.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $38.83
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d +7.1
Value67 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +7.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2026 free cash flow guidance was reduced to about $525M from about $550M, showing forward sensitivity to lower open-volume gas price assumptions.
  • • Natural gas basis and realized-price volatility remain material, especially because differentials widened in the updated guidance deck.
  • • The bear read is that the updated 2026 outlook already showed lower EBITDAX and FCF despite a strong Q1 tape, implying sensitivity to strip changes and limited operating leverage from here.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-30

Q1 print showed strong realized pricing, profit rebound, and free cash flow generation [#8-K-2026-04-30]

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.1
Δ21d
-4.9
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.9
Δ21d
-4.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 40.6 / Value 67.1 / Sentiment 68.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$31.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.23B
Beta
0.66
Shares Out
147.94M
P/E (TTM)
25.2
P/S (TTM)
2.65
P/FCF (TTM)
8.48
Rev YoY
-18.3%
EPS YoY
-47.8%
Gross Margin
+48.4%
Op Margin
+39.8%
Net Debt
$2.59B
Current Ratio
0.72
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data