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CNH

CNH IndustrialD
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Revenue growth, higher-end guidance, operational-efficiency initiatives, and improving dealer inventory indicators could support recovery optionality. The median analyst target of $12.81 implies substantial upside from $10.44, but the target count is unavailable.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Dealer inventory normalization taking longer than expected
Momentum
92
Value
64
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $10.75 · Bull $12.81 · Bear $8.90Analysis 2026-08-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $13.41
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d +8.1
Value64 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment36 · Δ7d -3.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Dealer inventory normalization taking longer than expected
  • • Further agriculture and construction margin compression
  • • The business remains near the trough of the agriculture cycle, with weak farmer economics, lower margins, tariff exposure, and declining earnings limiting near-term upside.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-03

Q2 results showed revenue growth but lower profitability

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
92
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.1
Δ21d
+54.8
Value
64
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-3.7
Sentiment
36
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
-34.1
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 92.3 / Value 63.6 / Sentiment 36.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.81
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$12.74B
Beta
1.30
Shares Out
1.24B
P/E (TTM)
20.3
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
7.10
Rev YoY
+2.0%
EPS YoY
-34.6%
Gross Margin
+30.1%
Op Margin
+13.3%
Net Debt
$23.81B
Current Ratio
7.29
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data